That it’s bonkers this is my FIX? Sorry another ENERGY one

[Ineedtoletgo83]

I wish I’d fixed in Oct 2021 but on MSE advice I didn’t then. Wow now this is our situation, what can we do? cut down usage is our option.

I did the MSE calculator is suggesting I strongly fix at £483 per month. Paying £165 atm due to go to £220.

I mean we could reduce our usage but really how much will that affect our bills?

large 4 bed semi, dreaded open plan area. Gas central heating.

we use 17800 kWh of gas?!

and 3744 kWh of Electricity.

I wfh 5 days a week. DH two days a week. Kids home from 4ish most days.

That depends on how the house is being used. If the heat is let in during the day, then the insulation works against you by being retained. It will only stay cool if the heat gradient doesn't favour filling the inside of the home with hot air, same as in winter when people leave doors and windows open.

I made a spreadsheet, because I found it so confusing. But I still can’t figure out whether to fix or not. It looks like yes, but £365 a month over £80 last year is not an 80% increase, Octopus! I used a 100% in my household budget to build a margin, and it just isn’t even close (that’s £165)

I’m not sure the gas is right, although we use virtually none in the summer, so maybe it is.

@PeloAddict Same with the deal I am being offered. But the risks to me is on the next 3 to 6 months as I would go straight into the January price cap now. So If the January or April price cap rises aren't as expected then I am already out of pocket even if I then switch to the variable rate. But you are right you just need to know when you should get out and cut your losses. Sound like your deal might be different

This is a helpful read (Which? Magazine article on saving money / most efficient white goods etc):-

apple.news/APwyExZ4kQwaivJYal7dF2w

I should say our house was baking in the heatwave so think retains heat well.

Your house baking during a heatwave is not a good barometer of heat retention in the winter months. Buy blackout curtains for your bifolds, they would have also helped kept a cooler home during the heatwave.

Very undecided on whether to fix or not but have started thinking about how to cut down our usage.

a move to the front room from the open plan is first on the cards for the start of autumn.

Oh and I’ve bought a heated throw!

The Energy Savings Trust can advise and do a survey of your house to help you reduce your consumption. Might be a good idea to get in contact with them.

This logic is appearing all over these threads but it doesn’t make sense.

Think about it: you won’t know if the January price cap is as high as expected until, um - January.

So if you fix at a rate higher than the October rise now, for October, November and December (half the winter) you’ll be paying more than the price cap. Say the predictions are wrong and the price cap doesn’t rise much in January. So you leave your fixed deal with no exit fees - great!

Except it’s not great, because, you will have paid over the odds for half the winter.

The best case scenario is that you’ll save for January, February and March, but that might be cancelled out by the excess you’re paying in the first three months.

It makes no sense to me. Why would you CHOOSE to pay more than the October price cap for the first half of the winter?

(The energy companies are banking on people going for these deals btw - and it’s no coincidence that the electricity in particular is a lot higher. That’s where they’ll get more from you in the first half of the winter, not the gas.)

We are all being royally taken for a ride.

Finally! Someone gets it! 🎉

@EtnaVesuvius this is how I feel - voluntarily signing up to pay them more than I have to for three months seems like a massive mug’s game to me! Also if there is government actions taken I think there’s a chance it could be linked to the price cap in which case you’ve fucked yourself signing up to an expensive fix.

Exactly!

The energy companies persuading people to sign up to these fixed deals must be rubbing their hands in glee. Lovely bit of profit.

@EtnaVesuvius it works for me 🤷🏻‍♀️ you can come back in January and tell me what a fool I was to be taken in by it.

@EtnaVesuvius because I fixed before the October cap was announced (just!)
The prices i have are

Gas compares to price cap
15.09 15
27.22 28

Electric Price cap
60.08 52
42.24. 46

So I lose out 3.5p a day on standing charges electric and 8p per kWh. BUT that fix isn't available any more as it's "too cheap"
I'm happier paying that and knowing what my unit rate will be in January, I would rather pay pennies over that be worrying it's going to soar again. Sod's law if I hadn't have fixed, it would have been way higher

I could drop back to variable but then I might end up paying more January - October as the forecasts show it'll go up again. If I drop back, I can't get the same fixed rate

I think offers/usage/circumstances vary so much that there isn't one right answer. I took my deal in February starting in April. I was really unsure about it as it seemed so high after my previous deal but by April it was looking a good deal as my costs were only a little above the cap and no exit fee so I figured over the summer I would be paying a little extra but as a gamble to a saving in October. If the govt freeze prices then I've lost the bet but I haven't lost much, if they don't freeze the prices I'll be saving alot between October and April.

Due to my husband's disability we are high users so knowing we can afford our DD for the winter was important to us, other people might have rejected the deal I got in February and it would be right for them. I don't think there is a one size fits all in this situation, too many variables.

Back in the early 2000s I got offered a 5 year deal, again it was a gamble but as prices rose I saved a lot of money. I wish I'd got a five year deal last year, I don't think any company has done them for a long time.

@PeloAddict If it’s pennies over then it will probably work out. I’m talking more about the ridiculous offers some people are getting to fix, in some cases 200% over what they pay now.

If the government steps in (which I strongly believe they will) or the situation rapidly changes politically, for example, in Ukraine (unlikely but possible) then the January rise might not be so big. Some people will have seriously lost out.

I am also sceptical about why the electric prices are particularly high in these fixed deals… hmmm.

Yeah mine on the calculator was something like 105%
If it was 200 I definitely wouldn't have fixed! I think January will be the telling month

Because if up goes up AGAIN you’ll be locked into a lower deal and be paying less. You’re not fixing because it’s a good deal now, but because it’s good if it gets even worse. And because you have some stability. If I’d fixed in March at £120, or even April at £180 I wouldn’t be looking at £350+ now. Even though neither of those deals were even remotely attractive at the time. It would have especially been worth taking a hit for the summer, when usage is low. (Not so much now, obvs)

I’m assuming now is peak though. Going into winter, very uncertain etc etc. but Russia can’t sell less than they are and people will start to find solutions soon.

I think can afford solar or a woodburner. Given that I only intend to live here for about five years, I’m not sure either is really sensible. Although it will be worth the peace of mind if electric prices stay like this. Especially if peak demand is rationed. I don’t think we’ll see drops to previous levels, ever (although I don’t think we’ll see these prices sustained either)

Futures contracts are higher. April is trending to have a price cap of over £7k compared to the £3.5k now.

Very few companies are even offering a fix and certainly fewer are advertising it as it will, naturally, affect their margins too. You can’t even switch provider for the most part as the Big Six don’t want to take on more customers given the failure of the 30+ suppliers in the last 12 months.

April is trending to have a price cap of over £7k compared to the £3.5k now.

Even if this were the case, that would render over half the households in the UK unable to pay their energy bills, plunging not just millions but tens of millions into fuel poverty. It’s quite a different situation to what we have now.

Regardless of who the next prime minister is, or even the next government, IMO it simply won’t be allowed to happen.

What are they going to do? The price signal means insufficient gas. You can print all the money in the world, it won’t put more gas in the system.

The UK only actually gets 3% of its gas from Russia. Most of it is from the North Sea and Norway.

The high prices are caused by volatility in the market, not a shortage.

There is a shortage because Russia would rather burn its oil off than sell to Ukrainian supporters in Europe.

We might only get a small amount from Russia but that doesn't matter because Russia is not sending their gas to European countries, like Germany.In plain terms, Russia is at war with Ukraine and her allies. She is imposing her own sanctions on those allies and is not selling any gas to them. Therefore, there is less gas to go around.

To say that we don't buy much from Russia and therefore it doesn't affect our prices is crackers. If there was a shortage of tinned peas and every supermarket, except Waitrose, couldn't get hold of any, it wouldn't help you because you are a Waitrose shopper and they can get tinned peas.
That is because, customers from Tesco, Sainsburys, Aldi etc would crowd into Waitrose to buy tinned peas. This would mean that Waitrose would start to run out of tinned peas too because of unprecedented and unforeseen demand.
They too would put up the price of their tinned peas because of the scrum to get hold of them. There would not be enough tinned peas because now Waitrose, instead of just supplying its own customers, is having to supply all the other supermarket's customers too.

Russia have turned off the gas. There are now too many customers chasing a restricted supply.
Our own PM has said this will lead to increased costs and most of us agree with him that the freedom of Ukraine is worth these increased costs. He asks us to remember that our increased costs are nothing when compared with the cost in Blood that Ukraine is paying.
Our own Chancellor of the Exchequer asked us to remember as prices rise that we are at war.
War is costly and war with Russia is very costly.

It’s both. The shortage was being experienced last winter before Ukraine was even a thing in the news. Look at the bidding wars that happened between Asia and Europe for LNG shipments from the ME, US and Australia. Ships literally got turned around the Horn of Africa at one point to
double back to the UK after we beat them in the bid against Japan.

A 3% shortfall in gas can be a sizeable problem given our precarity of supply at the best of times. The load balancing fuel of choice is gas, so any shortfall of wind or nuclear will be made up by it, which can mean needing further shipments, as was the case this winter gone when wind
levels were below norms.

France only gets 16% of its energy from gas, but has electricity forward prices at €1000 MWh right now because you pay for the marginal
unit.