I don’t think it will happen.
I think that the situation with school budgets is unbelievably dire though. More so than people realise. Yes, schools can run deficit budgets, but a lot of schools have been running deficit budgets for years. This means that they spend more and more money servicing debt every year. Many schools are also reaching the limit of the amount of debt that they can realistically accumulate.
In many schools what this means is fewer support staff, larger class sizes, poorer resources, more unqualified teachers, and more students being taught subjects in secondary by non-specialists.
There was a documentary a few years back looking at funding issues in schools, where a school was having to consider teaching some GCSE English to classes of 60
in the main hall. They didn’t do it in the end as some of the SLT insisted it was bonkers but there might be schools left with no other choice soon.
It’s patently ridiculous to expect schools to fund pay increases out of existing budgets when they were already allocated months ago. Either they should make decisions on pay for the following September at the end of the financial (not academic) year, or they should fund them. I mean, lets be honest, they should just fund them. Kids shouldn’t have to go without textbooks so that their teachers can pay their fuel bills.