The NHS is not living with COVID, it's dying from it

[EmbarrassingHadrosaurus]

Most people (including many in the NHS) are so tired of it that they are wilfully pushing it to the back of their minds, but now is the time to face the fact that the nation’s attempt to “live with covid” is the straw that is breaking the NHS’s back.

In 2020 and 2021 the NHS coped with pandemic peaks by stopping or slowing much of its routine work. 2022 was meant to be the year of full speed recovery, when we would build back better and fairer, when record waiting lists in elective care, cancer diagnosis and treatment, and mental health would begin to reduce, and the workload on primary care would begin to ease.
…
Above all, the government must stop gaslighting the public and be honest about the threat the pandemic still poses to them and the NHS. Being honest with the public will have two positive results, it will encourage the public to modify behaviour and, we hope, provoke urgent reflection about how the NHS is in such a mess so soon after the nation was applauding it on their doorsteps.

Joint editorial from major Health Services journal and the BMJ. Free to read: www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/the-nhs-is-not-living-with-covid-its-dying-from-it/7032824.article

What measures would you be prepared to support to get the NHS back to some form of functioning for everyone who needs it for non-COVID reasons?

The BMJ and the HSJ are always - and understandably - going to view the scenario from their view only, but the picture is so much bigger than simply health. I felt the same about the scientific views during the height of the pandemic too. Keeping the economy afloat is easily as important. If the economy is stuffed, then so is the health service. The medics seem to think that there is a bottomless pit of funding but if people can’t work because of restrictions and therefore pay taxes, there won’t be a health service. All these furloughs, free testing etc have to be paid for from somewhere.

It’s quite clear, restrictions don’t ultimately work. They merely delay the inevitable. They were actually brought in to buy us time and to spread the load on the NHS - not to save you, me or auntie Doris, it was about protecting the NHS, not protecting lives. A political decision rather than a health decision. There were an estimated 117,000 excess non covid related deaths of people waiting for treatment whilst the decks were cleared for the modelled (and ultimately incorrect) covid hospitalisations but the publicity is always about those that died from the virus, many of whom would have died anyway. My mother and MIL both succumbed - one had advanced dementia and was already semi conscious, the other was very, very frail and possibly wouldn’t have survived another month anyway.

The NHS seems to have become a Holy Cow. It can’t be criticised, we have to say how wonderful it is and whatever money it wants, it gets it without question. There are some fantastic people working there, there are also some pretty rubbish ones too. My DD went to a high performing grammar school. Many of her classmates went into medicine. Not because they had a vocation and wanted to enter a caring profession, but because there was an elitism and status to being a doctor, plus bloody good money, so it’s not all about angels in white coats etc.

What about the costs of long Covid? Aren’t there two million plus with it; and the number will be going up all the time? If those people in their 20s, 30s and 40s suffer long term disability and some never recover enough to return to full time work, then the cost of supporting them for up to 50 years will be tremendous?

There certainly aren't 2 million plus suffering long term disability from long covid, because the definition that gets to this number is notoriously broad and encompasses extremely mild symptoms along with more serious ones.

We do need to talk about LC and the impact of it, but the data we have right now is an entirely unhelpful shit show and throwing around numbers like 2 million is not helping this discussion at all.

Anyone who's done a home visit and seen boxes and boxes and boxes of totally free medications in an elderly person's house because they just keep re-ordering them will see how much is wasted.

I remember being astounded by the size of my mum's meds stash. She said that the pharmacy kept delivering meds every month and she'd never ordered them.
I assume that mum's GP never bothered reviewing her meds and they were on a continuous re-order loop from the pharmacy.
Had the GP had the time to go and visit mum (as GPs used routinely to do with housebound people) she could have asked mum about her symptoms, asked her if she was taking the meds daily and modified her prescription accordingly.

@MsFrenchie

There's lots of ways it could be funded.

It needs to be funded either way.

Health care isn't free.

@Topgub Health care isn't free.

Neither is social care and this is the biggest issue facing the NHS at the moment, one they have absolutely no control over.

Absolutely this!

Exactly the same with my mother and MIL. Furthermore, it’s all very well prescribing and doling out numerous medications for the elderly but unless they have a carer etc, many of them don’t take them appropriately or even at all, so a complete waste too. When I cleared out their respective homes, the amount of unused tablets was astounding. Clearly, the fact that they hadn't been taken had fairly minimal impact on their health anyway so it did make me question how necessary a lot of medications are anyway.

@BirmaBrite

Yes I know

Rather makes you wonder of privatisation is the answer after all, eh?

This is my point too.
A lot of people are left not able to work - hence not paying tax. Then they require significant state support possibly for the rest of their lives.
I say this as someone who has a chronic illness (post viral) - and I barely get enough support to stay well enough to continue working. The support/treatment quality has dropped dramatically since 2020. So there will be a second smaller pool of people whose quality of care has diminished and as a result will also require state support.

Chronic underfunding ????. Blair and Brown doubled the health care budget which now represents 40% of all government spending. An additional £ 12 billion was agreed on top of the planned increase in financial support. At this rate, the NHS will represent 50% of all government expenditure. The reality is that additional funding will either have to come from an increase in direct taxation, on top of the cost of living crisis or taken from elsewhere - where do you suggest, UC, Education or Defence ?.

A lot of people are left not able to work - hence not paying tax.

How many people are in this position though? We do not have decent data on this point.

I would love people to take responsibility for their own health, people are living with self inflicted conditions from lack of exercise, over eating and addiction. I don't know what the answer is not necessarily more money just better use of technology and prevention, providing services at home so admission is for the truly sick. It would be great if the NHS ran its own nursing homes as we would have more control over beds

The thing is, this is not just because the NHS is under staffed and under funded. The NHS and the emergency services are the coal face and demonstrates what happens after a time when, ideologically, the Conservatives cut public services and have done so for twelve years. Lack of exercise, overeating and addiction are symptoms of people who are left behind by an increasingly unequal society. People in the middle are squeezed, people at the bottom are trampled flat.

Chronic underfunding ????. Blair and Brown doubled the health care budget which now represents 40% of all government spending

And it was in such a better position in 2010 than it is now, it doesn't bear comparison.

This is true.

Agreed and it may well be a lot smaller than anticipated. Though the disruption to people's lives cannot be underestimated even when someone is able to return to work after a period of absence - that period of absence can have it's own ramifications - for example, how long do you get meaningful sick pay for? (Most people earn way over SSP which wouldn't touch their monthly bills). Is your job at risk if you don't return within a set period etc.
Some employers will be flexible and support the employee as much as possible and allow them to return to months even some months later and build up their hours. I'd like to see some return to work support packages - but I can't see we can fund these from the Treasury.

The reality is that additional funding will either have to come from an increase in direct taxation, on top of the cost of living crisis or taken from elsewhere - where do you suggest, UC, Education or Defence ?.

Maybe they could take it from the fuel duty tax receipts of about 26 billion ? If the cost of fuel goes up so does the tax reciept, silver lining and all that !

Per Covid Zoe email to me:

“The UK Office of National Statistics estimated the numbers of people with Long COVID actually increased from 1.3 million in January 2022 to 2 million as of 1st May 2022.”

“The UK Office of National Statistics estimated the numbers of people with Long COVID actually increased from 1.3 million in January 2022 to 2 million as of 1st May 2022.”

And have you actually checked their definition of long covid they're using? Mild cold symptoms six weeks after infection are included in these numbers iirc. It is not the case that we have millions of people unable to work and claiming disability.

Pre covid, there was ME or chronic fatigue symptom. Now it’s long covid.
I’m sure there are those that suffer long term effects but the vast majority recover quickly or are even unaware they were infected.

As a species we’re very open to auto-suggestion, we read or see something reported and are quick to apply our own idiosyncrasies to it; that’s why my back aches, that’s why I’m tired all the time etc etc.