GCSE grade pathways from year 9

[Everythingnotsavedwillbelost22]

Aibu to ask-
Can someone explain this to me! DS is in year 9 and got a 6 in his GCSE mock test & his teacher said that means he’s likely looking at an 8 in 2 years in his actual GCSE’s. Is that about right? Is it usually 2 grades up? Seems a lot in a short period of time but I am going on what teacher said- he’s just sat an actual GCSE mock exam.

Also, in old money what does it all mean?! What’s an 8 - DS said 7, 8 & 9 were all A grades but how does that work? Is 9 like A** or something? It’s a bit baffling!?!

A bit baffling? That's an understatement.
Why 3 or 4 as?

It's madness, eagerly await someone explain!

These are the new grade boundaries

What subject?

@TeenDivided the example I gave is Maths but he’s similar in science too

I don’t think two grades is a lot to go up in two years.

he has two full years of study ahead - of course the grade will go up - he will have sat the full syllabus and be 2 years older - plus had lots of exam prep

GCSE is now graded 1-9 4/5 lower/upper C 6-7 lover/upper B - 8-9 A/A* roughly

@Fullofpudding so a 7 is an A so really good! It makes it feel like it’s not really good the way that it’s talked about!

A grade a year is what is normally expected.

sorry 7-9 is A-A* range

The new grades don’t map neatly onto the old one.

inews.co.uk/news/education/gcse-grade-equivalents-new-number-grades-2021-explained-old-system-meaning-1145910

I haven’t taught for a few years but it all depends on grade boundaries the teacher used and which exam paper.

Not really a big leap if he's sat a full GCSE paper two years early and managed a 6. Lots of kids won't even get that at the end of y11. However if he's only sat a portion of a test and they have taken way large chunks of it then yes it's a big leap but not impossible if he puts the work in.

A 2 grade increase sounds about right If he keeps on track and revises. Sometimes students get these predictions and sit back on their laurels as they think they are going to get the predicted grade and find themselves very disappointed on results day.

Some schools don't start the GCSE in year 10. Well OFSted prefer this. So a grade 6 in year 9 is brilliant.

@GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing one of his mates is already straight 9’s accross the board so I think he’s feeling a bit insecure too!

So if he has taken a real GCSE maths paper and got a 6, then I can easily believe he'll go up 2 grades in 2 years as he 'just' needs to learn the grade 7 and 8 content.
Science is believable but less so as there is so much content so (in my personal view) exam technique improvement may have less impact as there will be masses more content still to learn.
I could also believe it for English language.

If it really was a full proper GCSE paper of course.

I'm a teacher and, in my experience, teachers are generally told that they're expected to get students to improve by one grade per year (so, a grade 6 at the end of Year 9 should achieve a grade 7 at the end of Year 10 and then a grade 8 at the end of Year 11).

However, it often doesn't work out at all like that. For example, because when they're tested at the end of Year 10, they're only tested on that content so (when they achieve a grade 7) they think they're on target for a grade 8 the next year without putting in a bunch of extra work (which they need to because they're being assessed on twice as much content a year later). The whole format of this makes students more complacent and eventually disappointed or stressed and struggling to catch up at the end of Year 11.

Personally, I'd prefer to allow students to view a grade 6 in Year 9 as an indication that they'll probably get a grade 6 in Year 11 if they don't step it up - because that's the reality. It's expected that a grade 6 Year 9 will achieve a grade 8 in Year 11 because it's also expected they'll up their game in the meantime.

@TeenDivided not sure it was an entire paper but it was GCSE content - I think the school are trying to get a sense of where everyone is at as they don’t predict gcse grades at all until year 10

Makes no sense to me, my sons school is basing his predicted GCSE grades on his sats results he did in year 6. Baffles me how they're still going off those results when he's no in year 9 🤷‍♀️

This is the government's fault - we have to do this. It continues to A Level as well. Everyone is on a "flightpath" from their Y6 Sats. We think it's as insane as you do.

That's a different kind of prediction.
That is more a generalised cohort-based target, and is independent of him as an individual person.

How does it work then if they’re on say level 5/6s in year 8/beginning of year 9 - will that be predicted 7/8s at GCSE level?
i find the new system tricky to judge

@Forpoxsake what @Blankel says above makes a lot of sense. Seems to be about a grade a year by the sounds of things as long as they work too etc! I am going to have to start to push DS a bit as he’d naturally prefer to be gaming on FIFA with his mates!!

They can't have given them an actual GCSE paper surely? They won't have covered half the material.

We give ours a paper using only the topics they've been taught. The grade they come out with on that paper in year 9 is nearly always the grade they come out with at the end of year 11.

Teacher here - not all subjects have the same 'pass mark' or 'grade boundaries' (don't even get me started on why that's fair when you need mid-40s % to get a Grade 4 in some subjects, but much less in others).

However, a mock exam now yielding a Grade 6 is very promising for the real thing (depending on the subject).

I do worry we're starting earlier and earlier though - Year 9 used to be the 'choosing your options' year, not the 'we're going to start GCSE work now' year. But then, I'm long in the tooth, and have been at this game a long time.