Housing price crash

[Eucalyptusbee]

It's happening!

AIBU to be excited

I think there will be a 2007 type dip but prices will come roaring back.

Too much demand and not enough supply at the end of the day

Not for 20 or 30 year olds in cities trying to build a career and in the 'rent trap' paying 60% or more of their net income to landlords. I can understand their glee if due to inflation there is a reversal of 27 years of a bull market. Potentially it could be a big real term drop in the next five years.

Just hoping that those left off the ladder might finally have an in after so long
Every house that someone is able to buy cheap is being sold by someone else who’s been forced to sell cheap and made a huge loss, leaving them in devastating debt. It’s not a good situation. One person gains at the expense of another.

Exciting because buying a home might become affordable again
If it’s not affordable for the current owner of the house to keep it, what makes you think it’ll be affordable for someone else to buy it off them? If the current owner can’t afford it then likely nobody else can either, because of wider economic circumstances.

I did the maths on it. People are paying the same amount to borrow (so interest) now that they were then due to the higher cost of houses

I thought this. Mid 30s too. Very odd

I'm late 30s, Irish. Let me tell you what happened to my generation in the property crash in 2008.

We were just too young to buy beforehand. The market crashed, borrowing became impossible and so no one willingly sold for shit prices or was able to buy at low prices for several years. The market was basically stagnant.

Then, things picked up and all of a sudden buying was possible again. I had moved away, but my friends found themselves late 20s/early 30s looking to get on the ladder. All couples with two professional careers.

The market went crazy. All of a sudden, five years' worth of first time buyers were trying to get on the ladder at the same time. One couple bid on over 20 houses before they bought. Many of them they had the bid in before they had even viewed properly. Very quickly all of the local estate agents were able to ascertain the top of their budget and so bidding below that became pointless, regardless of the house. This was not an unusual story and these were not idiots or people putting in unrealistic bids.

Now, a property crash will just leave the in negative equity. In a stable market they may be looking to upsize but if the market crashes they won't be putting those small family homes on the market, they'll be staying put.

Of course, they did better than my sister's generation - they're 5 years younger and had to emigrate straight out of college to get jobs, so the Irish property market is a mere theoretical interest to them.

Anyone who thinks a property crash will help young first time buyers to get on the ladder is a bloody idiot.

My dad used to say this - until I pointed out that they were able to buy their 3 bed semi in a naice area on one decent but not remarkable salary.

My friends were both solicitors doing very well and couldn't afford a house on the same road such was the increase in prices, that 3 bed semi in a naice area was a pipe dream.

I am an avid RighMove watcher and I think 'stabilise' is more likely than 'crash'. What's happening in my area (Yorkshire) is that houses are going on at quite a high price, not selling for a couple of weeks, then being reduced and going very quickly.

There is no drop in numbers applying for mortgages
There are hardly any houses for sale, look on Rightmove see for yourself. How many have been listed for more than 6 months?
Builders have missed total targets, M Gove speech yesterday.
In US record applications for finance.
Please OP find a better economist, maybe a full time one not a lawyer that's moonlighting.

If prices crash it doesn’t help FTBs it just means that lenders won’t lend… it only helps the cash rich

And of course if interest rates go up now with a much more relatively expensive house people are even more screwed. We are so upset by it all, it makes me feel sick. I can well believe that a lawyer might not be able to afford a house in some parts of the country. We are on 83k combined, currently paying 1250 a month rent for a tumbling down, tiny house with no inheritance or help for saving for a deposit. We have finally got ourselves in a position to buy a starter home but keep getting either outbid or the property gets downvalued the two times we have won the bidding war. What more can we do, we've done all the right things? Also terrified of rent being increased.

There is no benefit for FTBs to a house price crash. The ideal scenario for FTBs is prices staying the same and wages going up.

I hear Fortnite is very popular OP, have you tried occupying your time with that?

@JenniferBarkleyive family in Ireland. It literally changed over night didn’t it. You had to be in the right place at the right time, with the right partner to make it work. If you missed that minuscule moment in time you were stuffed

I don't understand why anyone would hope for a housing price crash

If there is a housing price who is going to sell there houses?

And lenders will remove any good deals too

Round us almost all activity is off righmove- only hits there if not sold in over a month

Maybe that's why the OPs excited @Lastqueenofscotland2?

The OP and her lawyer/economist DH are the cash rich looking to storm in and buy up a load of discounted houses from desperate sellers?

This has been done to death. Housing costs as a proportion of household income were very much more affordable, even in the days of 15% interest rates. Family homes could be purchased on one fairly ordinary salary.

Those who are predicting minimum 25% deposit-where do you get that figure from? I remember deep crashes before going back 30 years and there has never been a general minimum of 25%-and I worked in the industry.

The market crashes and existing owners end up in negative equity or only able to buy houses about the same size or smaller than the oens they are in...

No one moves.

No stock available.

No one gets to buy anyway.

Big swings in the market are not good for anyone: owners or aspiring owners alike.

Definitely not in my area in Birmingham . House prices are going through the roof here at the moment and I'm so glad I bought my modest 3-bed semi when I did.

It will crash soon. And there will be the usual weeping and wailing from folk that have overpaid. It is obvious that the prices were too high.

Not true at all my joint mortgage payment was 60% of income😔Repossessions were at their highest …

I just don't see how prices can crash when there is such demand for housing.

Maybe your lawyer DH should also brush up on his economics because trust me if house prices crash it will be part of a far greater economic shock which may result in both of you losing your jobs. A slowdown in increase is preferable so people can buy first homes. A crash would be the result of wider economic disaster. You both sound quite young and naive.