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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Housing price crash

534 replies

Eucalyptusbee · 12/05/2022 09:58

It's happening!

AIBU to be excited

OP posts:
Oscarthedog · 13/05/2022 07:00

LibrariesGiveUsPower · 12/05/2022 22:26

So screw everyone who’s recently bought a house and struggling to survive? You seriously don’t care they will loose their homes in a major crash?

Only an issue if they over spent or are too leveraged. Nobody forces anyone to go to the bank and buy a house, they made the decision on their own free will and a house price crash or interest rate rises to historically normal levels should be part of that decision.

treebit · 13/05/2022 07:35

Not if people can BENEFIT for paying for their own care

Did you mean to reply to my post @Bedsheets4knickers? your post makes no sense.

LouisCatorze · 13/05/2022 07:43

Yes, a lot of people overextend themselves with their mortgages. For some it's necessary to get a foot on the property ladder but others opt for their dream home. Possibly best to be cautious and not put all 'financial' eggs in one basket (i.e. expensive and high mortgage). Higher interest rates don't matter so much if you're nearing the end of your mortgage and could potentially pay it off early. However, for those who have just got onto the property ladder (and may already be stretched), they may not be able to afford an extra ££££ on payments every month with interest rate rises and a housing crash. It can make a huge difference to family finances, particularly if everything else (looking at energy prices currently) is going up in price too.

There is a lot of schadenfreude on MN which I don't get. It's really mean-minded and unnecessary.

Overthewine · 13/05/2022 07:48

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ at the poster's request.

treebit · 13/05/2022 08:15

The next two budgets will keep us up out of a full blown recession because the Tories would like to stay in power. Next I imagine will be Mortgage Prisoners being given interest rate breaks/restructured repayment terms as tens of thousands are about to expire on IO mortgages and be bankrupt/homeless.

I'm not convinced they will keep us out of a recession.

Wars help the economy. Believe it or not. Jobs, design, technology advancements, short term it's a bit shit (very shit) but there is always a boom sometimes afterwards.

i hope so, we've been struggling since 08 really

NeverDropYourMooncup · 13/05/2022 08:57

3peassuit · 12/05/2022 10:28

People who were hurt by negative equity in 90s will be less excited by this. Also, prices aren’t coming down round here yet (Kent).

People who were hurt by negative equity in the 1990s would presumably have paid off any mortgage in the subsequent 30 years, surely? Especially if they had moved since then and benefitted from the insane prices over the last two decades.

TwinklingFairyLights · 13/05/2022 09:33

@Overthewine

Ah, you're from the future so you are absolutely, definitely correct.

Funny how experts in this are disagreeing about what will happen. Maybe they should give you a call so you can set them straight?

RedToothBrush · 13/05/2022 09:40

NeverDropYourMooncup · 13/05/2022 08:57

People who were hurt by negative equity in the 1990s would presumably have paid off any mortgage in the subsequent 30 years, surely? Especially if they had moved since then and benefitted from the insane prices over the last two decades.

My parents were stung by the 1990s crash and never really recovered from it.

They bought at the top of the market in 1989 and my dad's company subsequently went under. They were hit by the crazy interest rates and nearly lost the house. They've never moved and whilst the house has increased in value, its not as much as you might think because we are in the north west.

The problem was compounded by the fact that they were given advice to take out an endowment mortgage, which didn't cover the cost of the mortgage when it matured. There was a scandal over it, and they were entitled to compensation, but that didn't really cover the short fall. The upshot of that was they didn't pay off the mortgage until really late and it really affected their pension provision.

The situation is now, that they are short on their pension so at some point will have to sell to cover their care in the future and there isn't going to anything left from that. There will be no inheritance.

Tbh I'm not expecting any inheritance. We don't need it. (our finances are better than my parents which is unusual for anyone else we know who is our age in our social circle - the opposite is true for everyone one else). I just hope that my parents can cover their care costs because that would be a huge burden on us otherwise.

So I disagree that every who got hit hard by the 1990s crash recovered from it, in the same why that I don't believe that many people who got hit hard by the 2008 crash will (again we are the exception to the rule on that one but are a lot worse off for it, compared to friends in our social circle in comparible areas of work who are 10 years older. The only reason we are doing ok is because DH is at least two grades above they were with all the responsibilities and work stress that come with that).

The worrying thing for me is listening to friends talk about the financial advice they are currently getting. They are being told by a financial advisor to invest in shares. They recommended him to us, and we've ignored because he been going around saying 'don't put the money into your mortgage, put it into shares then cash it in and pay off theremainder of your mortgage'. This fills me with terror given the economic outlook and how this is exactly the trap my parents fell into all those years ago, yet people still think its a cracking idea. We know it might not be the best way to cover the mortgage to stick to the traditional way to repay, especially with rising of interest rates. But at the same time its safer and we can plan financially long term without that higher risk.

People want to make the same mistake and take the short cuts, and I do think thats a massive part of the problem which creates these fluxations in the market when the whole thing goes bust from over gambling. The winners are the traders who play the market. The losers are those who risk their even security on the chance of high rewards and ignore the possibility of it going tits up.

You wouldn't bet your house on the horses, yet time and again people do similar with various dubious financial set ups and over stretching on houses because they want to (rather than because they need to). That bigger kitchen in the more expensive house cant really afford, isn't necessarily worth it. Many people don't have the luxury of this type of choice but there are a sizable number who do, and who put the rest of the market at risk.

I find the whole thing incredibly frustrating. DH and I have purposefully not played the game on this and sometimes its felt like a mistake. On the other hand, we aren't kept awake at night worrying about thr mortgage. We have plenty that keeps us awake at night but thats not one of the things. That in itself is a luxury, im grateful for.

3peassuit · 13/05/2022 09:42

People lost their homes in the nineties, some never recovered emotionally or financially from the loss.

ancientgran · 13/05/2022 09:49

I got stung in the 70s. We bought in 1973 at the height of a boom and the market almost immediately crashed. We spent alot of money on the house as it was a wreck, all we could afford. When we sold 2 years later we did get more than we paid but the extra didn't cover the rewire, damp course, new windows, new bathroom, new kitchen. However, we moved to a much better house, really we probably jumped a rung on the ladder and bought a lovely 4 bed Edwardian semi at a bargain price.

I can focus on our bad timing for the first purchase or I can focus on how well we did with the 2nd. Of course if we hadn't bought the first one, saved all the money we spent on estate agents, solicitors, doing up the first house plus the deposit on the first one we'd probably have been better off. You just have to let it go. I forgot all the figures long ago.

BarbaraofSeville · 13/05/2022 09:51

Yes if they were unable to buy again due to debt, credit rating issues or circumstances before prices took off again, they could have been priced out permanently.

Plus prices haven't risen by the same amount across the country. People talk about prices in London/SE that were 2/3 times similar properties in other areas. Today the difference seems to be more like 5-10 times. Eg we bought a small 2 bed terrace in 1995 for £32k. That house is now worth around £140k.

A similar house in London in 1995 might have cost around £60k, but these days could be north of half a million.

So people's experience of being in/out of the market over the last 20/30 years could be very different depending on where they live.

treebit · 13/05/2022 10:11

that's true @BarbaraofSeville & many people were impacted by falls in 08 but it's wasn't nationwide.

My part of London has stagnated really since Brexit

treebit · 13/05/2022 10:12

although it got a big boost from the SD break

treebit · 13/05/2022 10:13

A similar house in London in 1995 might have cost around £60k, but these days could be north of half a million.

my inlaws house was 60k ish in the late 80s/early 90s. Worth at least 1.8m now.

hayley037 · 13/05/2022 12:26

You won't be able to get a mortgage if there is a housing crash, banks will reign in and restrict lending. You'd likely need 25% LTV as a deposit and the rates will be much higher than they are now.

Also housing crashes usually happen when the economy tanks so you'll be looking at large scale redundancies, low/negative growth and generally a few years of economic misery for millions of people.

Be careful what you wish for.

SamphirethePogoingStickerist · 13/05/2022 12:37

NeverDropYourMooncup · 13/05/2022 08:57

People who were hurt by negative equity in the 1990s would presumably have paid off any mortgage in the subsequent 30 years, surely? Especially if they had moved since then and benefitted from the insane prices over the last two decades.

Maybe! But many of us who were young, new mortgage owners lost our home and never bought again. Some, like me, wasited for a couple of decades before being financially straight again.

And few people actually benefit from the price rises. If you sell you still need somewhere to live. So rent, another house, part or full payment, you don't see all the money from it. I doubt I will ever see a penny from the house I currently own. It might pay off some health/social care but I won't be able to sell it and get any benefit from any rise in price until, ill or dead, I have no more reason to live in it!

SamphirethePogoingStickerist · 13/05/2022 12:39

treebit · 13/05/2022 10:13

A similar house in London in 1995 might have cost around £60k, but these days could be north of half a million.

my inlaws house was 60k ish in the late 80s/early 90s. Worth at least 1.8m now.

And here, in the middlingly expensive part of NotLondon, a 60K house in 1995 is worth about £260K

It is pointless using the most expensive real estate to make a point!

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 13/05/2022 12:39

Oscarthedog · 13/05/2022 07:00

Only an issue if they over spent or are too leveraged. Nobody forces anyone to go to the bank and buy a house, they made the decision on their own free will and a house price crash or interest rate rises to historically normal levels should be part of that decision.

Unless you're extremely wealthy, buying a home (or moving up the ladder) is always a leap of faith.

Let's say you don't overstretch yourself, and have a good cushion of savings in case of any interest rate rises, but then.. life happens. One of you is made redundant from a seemingly secure job, or your thriving business goes under due to completely unforeseen events (hello, pandemic, hi, war!) or you're hit with additional expenses that you couldn't reasonably have foreseen.

if (or as it's increasingly looking, when) a recession hits, there are going to be numerous casualties who overstretched because it was simply the only way to get on the ladder. Maybe some who could have spent less, but didn't, for whatever reason. And then there'll be all the rest who simply had life happen, at a very unfortunate time. Don't tar all those people with the same brush.

hayley037 · 13/05/2022 12:40

Eucalyptusbee · 12/05/2022 13:01

Wow opened a can of worms here!! I suspect those going out their way to derail the thread and attack me could be the over leveraged and/ or I'm alright Jack camp

Houses are ridiculous. I just want siblings and children to actually have a chance to own one one day

Unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. Thatcher changed the psyche of the country during her reign when it came to house prices and Major/Blair Cameron continued with it.

Property is now something that are engrained into our mind as a commodity rather than a home or somewhere to live. It would take something very big politically to change that and it won't come from any of our big political parties. I can only see it happening if someone fairly radical on the left did get elected but I really don't see that happening anytime soon. An end to FPTP would probably see something change but again will that happen in our lifetime? Probably not.

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 13/05/2022 13:17

Wales is one to watch, I think. A recent increase in land transaction tax (our version of stamp duty) for second home owners is causing many landlords and holiday home owners to sell up. Good news for some, as it means more houses available to buy at hopefully more affordable prices. Unfortunately it's very, very bad news for people renting.

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 13/05/2022 13:21

Got that wrong - I think it's that there are now fewer people buying second homes, rather than more selling up. Although there probably are more people selling up as well, due to cost of living increases.

Funkyblues101 · 13/05/2022 13:27

Eucalyptusbee · 12/05/2022 10:08

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/08/borrowed-time-bad-will-housing-crash-finally-comes/

Didn't mean to come across as gleeful. Just hoping that those left off the ladder might finally have an in after so long.

Husband (lawyer but studied economics and works closely in markets / property) said things looking very bleak, in 6m time we will long for today's prices / interest rates

A recession doesn't mean lower end potential buyers can buy. It means there are minimal houses on the market, people only sell if they have to move for work reasons, basically. An increase in rates equally doesn't mean young couples can suddenly buy houses. In the 70s interest rates were 12-15%, people didn't go out to eat, they spent almost nothing on entertainment. They literally went round to each others' houses for parties - that was fun, but nowadays a huge percentage of our economy is based on the service industry. If no one can afford more than their high interest mortgage, who is going to pay the wages of hospitality staff?
When the recession hits it will be awful.

treebit · 13/05/2022 14:06

It is pointless using the most expensive real estate to make a point!

I was agreeing with @BarbaraofSeville about the ridiculousness of it & how it was regional. I'm not sure what other point you inferred from my post....

BarbaraofSeville · 13/05/2022 14:09

Well £1.8M was a lot more than I was expecting from my point about the regional differences but £260k is quite a bit less.

I suppose the truth is somewhere in the middle Smile

treebit · 13/05/2022 14:12

it was a rough area that has become very gentrified.