To ask how likely/ unlikely it is we'll join in the war.

[Ciaram55]

I'm managing to put the worry to the back of my mind, but facebook keep throwing up scary headlines with links from so called experts talking about nato getting involved militarily. I'm petrified tbh. I'm finding it hard to stop thinking about it.

I feel desperately sorry for the people over there who are affected but that doesn't stop me worrying about my family.

Please can any calm headed mumsnetters help me to calm down.

No one, unless they're a time traveller, knows. Anyone who claims otherwise is talking bollocks. Put your phone down, stay away from MN and the news and try to enjoy time with family or friends

I reckon it's more likely we won't get involved. (JMHO, I don't know that...) Try not to worry about things you can't control As a pp said, stop watching the news for a bit.

Personally, I don't think we will. Putin has had a shock at discovering how useless his army is and won't be able to manage to invade a NATO country. He'll have enough on his plate holding onto Ukraine if he manages to take it over. His country is going down the toilet, everyone wants him dead and his only allies are nutters or fellow dictators. His days are coming to an end. Things are bad if he's relying on 80s soviet throwbacks like Belarus, which isn't even a properly developed country or crazy Assad's Syrian attack mongrels.

Try to avoid the news and hide any worrying threads on here.

I mean the most important thing here is don’t get your news from Facebook.
That was the takeaway from Brexit and the US elections and it seems we still haven’t quite learned that lesson.

It is significantly more likely that we won’t get involved beyond sanctions and sending aid/ weapons. The downsides are way too high (all of nato would have to be involved) and the positives at the minutes don’t remotely outweigh them.

Try to avoid the news and hide any worrying threads on here.

Yes I won't watch any news now. My DH talks about events and I've had to tell him not to tell me. I know I'm like an ostrich but I can't function properly when I hear too much.

I feel so pathetic especially when I compare myself to those poor people over there. But I can't help it.

I think it's highly unlikely.

You're not pathetic, it's a really worrying time for Europe. It's so sad that Ukraine find themselves bordering a dictator. He won't be there for much longer though.

No one knows. I think it’s unlikely as NATO have to act as a group, and everyone currently hoping sanctions and the grind of war will lead to a slow climb down.

Highly unlikely. Of we join any kind of War then it might be our last.
So ... no .... no War.

I'm the same OP. Everytime I see a thread on here I hide it, and I have blocked Twitter on my phone (I was going down some INSANE rabbit holes on there, some people are completely MENTAL) but i have the Times app on my phone and I check it religiously like multiple times an hour, even though it only updates every few hours. I have changed the radio station in the morning to some awful music thing as I worry about what the headlines are going to be and I've started to leave my phone downstairs at night otherwise I'd spend all night doom-scrolling. Despite all of this I still can't get it out of my mind and keep imagining the worst case scenario ie the end of the world and how i could explain that to my dc.

I haven't told DH, he has no idea I'm like this. I don't feel the same complete fear and terror I did when it started but I do feel just a low level of sadness and anxiety constantly, then I feel bad because I know I am safe here, unlike those poor people in Mariupol.

On the first Monday back after half term I was doing a y11 assembly and I knew I'd have to mention it and I just thought I was going to break down as I didn't feel at all qualified to talk to young people about something this awful.

No one here knows and if they do, they won't be publicly announcing it. Whatever happens happens and we can't do anything about it so just go about your business as normal for now.

Probably not. Putin would be mad and irrational to provoke a wider conflict, and there's nothing to suggest he's either of those. He's evil, but he's invaded Ukraine because he knows there is no chance of NATO involvement.

But who knows. Inadvertent escalation is more likely than intentional.

Hi OP, I'm an academic with a longstanding specialism in this area.

Whoever these people are, they don't sound like experts. No-one knows anything for certain, of course, but NATO and Russia are both very keen to avoid a war with each other.

There's zero chance that I can see that NATO will choose to enter the war in support of Ukraine. The whole reason that Ukraine has never been admitted to NATO is because letting them in would have risked triggering a war with Russia (even before the annexation of Crimea in 2014, because there have been Russian troops stationed on Ukrainian territory since the collapse of the USSR). It's the reason there won't be a NATO no fly zone. The US backed out of helping supply fighter jets to Ukraine because they were so worried about the risk of escalation.

NATO's Secretary General has been clear that we're not going to take part in the war. Last night Joe Biden tweeted: "I want to be clear: We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full might of a united and galvanized NATO. But we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine."

Despite the ranting, Russia seems equally interested in avoiding war with NATO, as it has always been.

The only circumstance under which the UK and NATO would get pulled into the war would be if Putin chose to deliberately attack a NATO state. I really don't see that happening - though, again, you can't say anything for 100% certain.

Block the accounts on facebook, the more you click on them, the more facebook will show you.

I absolutely agree with all the reasons stated as reasons not to militarily attack the Russian military attacking Ukraine. And why NATO itself doesnt involve itself.

But lines have been crossed by Putin, a Soviet born and bred - any 'capatalist sanctions' are actually music to his ears - market forces are not something to be concerned about.

Time is not on the side of the people still living in Ukraine - it's going to get flattened and many people, mostly the vulnerable unable to flee, will die of armaments, cold and starvation.

I'm a peace-loving hippy but absolutely we can not stand by any longer and we must attack by air and sea to bring an end to the carnage.

Putin is of the same generation as me - a Cold War Baby - he is playing on the fear of nuclear holocaust that we all grew up under no matter what side of the Iron Curtain we lived behind.

He's calling our bluff, expecting us to do nothing, let's not prove him right.

Thank you everyone. I feel so much better after reading these posts. I feel a lot calmer now. I appreciate you all taking the time, hopefully it might have helped others too.

We shall have to compromise

And sadly that really means the people of Ukraine shall have to (no joining NATO, no other countries close to Russia joining NATO maybe part of Ukraine being under Russian rule)

Or we go to war and that has to be avoided at all costs

It's probably not going to happen. If it is there's absolutely nothing we can do about it. I'm a worrier but I am not worried about this. I'm not watching the news or anything.

@BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation

Personally, I don't think we will. Putin has had a shock at discovering how useless his army is and won't be able to manage to invade a NATO country. He'll have enough on his plate holding onto Ukraine if he manages to take it over. His country is going down the toilet, everyone wants him dead and his only allies are nutters or fellow dictators. His days are coming to an end. Things are bad if he's relying on 80s soviet throwbacks like Belarus, which isn't even a properly developed country or crazy Assad's Syrian attack mongrels.

Try to avoid the news and hide any worrying threads on here.

thats the worry though....he has literally nothing to lose now.

We might aid a war with weapons but we won't be rolling tanks eastwards. Putin won't start a war with the West. It's not like 1941 with the German army heading to Moscow. His military staff know this and so does he. Economic and cyber attacks are the way now.

He has nothing left to loose , except his many children, his ex wife,his mistress?

Do we think he cares much about his family?

War is unlikely (IMO) but that doesn't stop it playing on my mind. Realistically, all I can really do is take control of my own circumstances so I'm trying to prepare by looking for things like cheap draught excluders and blankets (in case of gas outages/high heating costs), making sure my bike is in good working order with a few spare parts in the shed (to save on petrol and in case I can't obtain parts at a later date), getting all the niggly little jobs around the house sorted (again, in case I can't get the bits and pieces later) and getting 2-3 extra non-perishables with the weekly shopping.

It's probably all completely unnecessary but planning and preparing helps me feel in charge.