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why is putin more bothered about ukraine joining nato than seemingly latvia...

35 replies

jobhunter7 · 28/02/2022 21:32

somebody will be more educated than this than me... but other neighbouring countries have joined nato, is is just the final straw for him? or is it because of the breakaway bits of eastern ukraine?

OP posts:
pussycatunpickingcrossesagain · 28/02/2022 21:44

Not sure what his motivation is.

He's not very tall (Napoleon, Hitler) and I've started calling him "Vlad the press-stud" as I'm guessing he's not particularly well-endowed either. 🤷‍♀️

pussycatunpickingcrossesagain · 28/02/2022 21:45

Ah, and I suspect he thought Ukraine would be a pisser - nobody gave much of a 💩 about him taking over Crimea...

TimeToMakeACupofTea · 28/02/2022 21:51

I think Latvia joined before he completely lost the plot.

twominutesmore · 28/02/2022 21:51

I think he endured other bordering countries joining NATO but recently made it clear that he would tolerate no further Eastward expansion.

Postdatedpandemic · 28/02/2022 21:53

Non iced up ports play a part
carnegieendowment.org/2021/05/20/what-is-russia-doing-in-black-sea-pub-84549

pussycatunpickingcrossesagain · 28/02/2022 21:56

Not sure why Poland and Lithuania + some strong naval forces haven't cut off Kaliningrad tbh.

inheritancetrack · 28/02/2022 21:57

He thinks Ukraine is part of Russia and he is paranoid

Justkeeppedaling · 28/02/2022 21:58

He thinks the Ukrainians are Russian.

Ednafrommooneyponds · 28/02/2022 22:28

Russia has always considered Ukraine part of Russia in a way that the Baltic states and Poland never were. DHs colleague is Russian and says many Russians are still angry that Ukraine was ever made an independent country.

jobhunter7 · 28/02/2022 23:38

@Ednafrommooneyponds

Do they feel the same way about any other ex ussr countries? Do they believe Belarus is a part of Russia really? Or just Ukraine?

OP posts:
MushroomQueen · 28/02/2022 23:41

This is a bit long but gives a good background and helped me understand some reasoning

MushroomQueen · 28/02/2022 23:41

It was made a few years ago but is so relevant it feels like could have been made the other day

VikingVolva · 01/03/2022 00:04

Timing - the Balts joined NATO in March 2004 and EU in May that year which was as Putin's first term as president was coming to an end.

Putin hadn't got a stranglehold on the state at that time, Russia wasnt as strong internationally, and the salami-slicing that led to this hadn't begun. Also the later stages of the second Chechen War was still underway - when fighting within your own borders, you have less capacity to take on three other states.

Yes, I think recreating USSR is an aim. Not necessarily by conquest - some former soviet states would probably go over to be client states perfectly happily (eg Belarus, probably all four 'stans' too). Not so sure what they'd do about Moldova (war there in the 1990s Russian troops in a breakaway area - sound familiar?) or Georgia and Azerbaijan

Leaving the Balts, and no corridor to Kaliningrad.

Epli · 01/03/2022 00:07

Baltic states as well as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic started cooperation with NATO when Russia was economically on its knees and with a very weak army. I think the latter three had joined joined as full members before Putin was even elected. I was very young at that time but I remember the consensus in Poland was that we had to join NATO ASAP to cement our modernization and democratization ambitions, and escape Russia’s influence. All those countries used the window of opportunity very well.

VikingVolva · 01/03/2022 00:31

They were Warsaw Pact rather than former Soviet states.

Yes, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999 before Putin's first presidency. As well as the Balts, the other former Warsaw Pact countries Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania joined in 2004, Croatia in 2009, and Montenegro and North Macedonia in 2020.

(Albania withdrew from Warsaw Pact in the late 1960s, joining NATO in 2009)

Russia was in a very weak position in the 00s - I think that might have been a formative time for the wish to see the return of some form of USSR and a restoration of its might on the world stage.

China is still silent on this. Sino-Soviet relations were always somewhat opaque, we're hearing nothing of Russo-Chinese ones now, and Biden quite pointedly refused to comment on state of China-US exchanges right now.

We're perhaps moving from the two superpowers of the post-war 20 the century, via the Pax Americana, to a three superpower world? If Russia succeeds in current campaign, that is

SC215 · 01/03/2022 01:41

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia all got invited to join NATO in 2002, and joined in 2004. I would guess that Putin either wasn't too bothered at the time, because he still had the buffer of Belarus and Ukraine for the majority of Russia's borders, or more likely Russia couldn't afford to attack 3 countries spontaneously at the time, and/or it would have been a massive faff?

Do they feel the same way about any other ex ussr countries? Do they believe Belarus is a part of Russia really? Or just Ukraine?

Belarus is part of Russia, I mean it's not, but it basically is (for now). It was part of the USSR and is now run by a dictator called Lukashenko who was in the USSR and whose been in power since 1994. He relies on Putin's power and money to keep him in power, and Putin wants to keep him in power because he will do what Putin wants, so it's a win win relationship for the two of them. He's a Putin puppet. He will never join NATO and has rigged elections. Belarus did have wide spread protests after the last rigged election, but it got quashed eventually, protests were banned and the leader of the opposition got sent to prison for 18 years.

Whereas Ukraine did over get rid of their pro Russian government in 2014. Before that it was run by Yanukovych, who was Pro Russian and anti Europe, his government tried to distance themselves from relationship with the EU and increase their ties with Russia in 2013. Ukrainian people were not happy, revolted, overthrew the government and Yanukovych had to flee (to Russia). Then Russia invaded Crimea in Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians" and has technically been at war with Ukraine ever since, so this has been simmering for a long time. Ukraine is now becoming closer to the west, and Putin does not want a Russian speaking democracy on his door step, giving Belarus ideas, especially not one in NATO. Plus he's fucking nuts.

MMBaranova · 01/03/2022 01:57

Putin thinks Ukrainians and Belarussians are inferior model Russians (like Slav Orcs) but still to be included in his ethnic ramblings.

He knows that there are ethnic Russians in the Baltic states but that's something from the future.

I suspect, given his looks and area of origin, that he is something of a Chud, but many Russians up in the northern parts probably are if you delve deeply into their heritage - but so what? I wouldn't make that suggestion to his face, given his history.

JimmyDurham · 01/03/2022 02:00

@jobhunter7

somebody will be more educated than this than me... but other neighbouring countries have joined nato, is is just the final straw for him? or is it because of the breakaway bits of eastern ukraine?
With a land border one side and the Russian Baltic Fleet on the other he has the Baltic republics more or less where he wants them. Ukraine's a different matter.
nightwakingmoon · 01/03/2022 02:10

Also their populations are v small compared to Ukraine - there are only around 6m or fewer people in all the Baltic states combined compared to Ukraine’s 40m.

greenteafiend · 01/03/2022 02:11
I really recommend watching this good video explainer. Ukraine's geographical position makes it esp important in terms of defending Russian from any attack from Europe. There are also lots of hydrocarbons.
StartupRepair · 01/03/2022 02:31

Finland has never dared to join NATO. They are discussing it in their parliament this week.

HappyAsASandboy · 01/03/2022 03:25

@greenteafiend that video is fantastic, thank you. So many different reasons for Putin to want to control Ukraine Sad

jobhunter7 · 01/03/2022 09:22

"nobody gave much of a 💩 about him taking over Crimea..."

Crimea was a part of Russia until the 1950s - when Khrushchev (which seems as crazy a move as when it got grabbed back) gave it to them. Did nobody care much because seemingly the people mostly wanted to be in Russia? Not sure if most Ukrainians felt the same way. Or whether we could rely on any polls of what the people wanted in Crimea.

Would a peaceful resolution be if the breakaway eastern bits joined Russia?

OP posts:
BadHairDayExpert · 01/03/2022 09:39

Would a peaceful resolution be if the breakaway eastern bits joined Russia?
Well, therein lies the rub - Putin initially said it was a special mission to liberate them/peacekeeping etc but has reneged on that, using Nato and global reaction, to justify an illegal war.
Even if Ukraine had said, here - have them, there may have been a period of quiet, but then there would have been the next thing. He has already said the Baltic states should never have been Nato members so would reverse it if he could.
As for the breakaway Easter bits, do they even want to be part of Russia - I thought they wanted independence in their own names - DPR and LPR.
I do freely admit though that I knew bugger all about the Donbas region until last week. Blush

BadHairDayExpert · 01/03/2022 09:40

Eastern even

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