Very concerned about Russian invasion of Ukraine

[howdoesthisworktoday]

What does this mean for the rest of the world? Isn't it very likely that we will need to intervene with military action ? And if we do, is Russia going to start military action against whoever intervened in Ukraine ? Putin has threatened to, basically, as far as I understand.

This sounds really, really bad. What does everyone else think ? Or am I just going to the absolute worst case. What other scenarios could play out ? Very concerned about Ukraine, but also what this will mean for the rest of us.

At the moment I don't think there is an immediate threat to the UK ,
But where does it end Putin is a megalomaniac
It's very concerning .

The honest truth ... we don't know. This isn't unprecedented exactly, Russia annexed crimea in 2014, we huffed and puffed then returned to business as usual except they were kicked out of the G8 (reverted to G7).

If I was Ukrainian it would be terribly worrying but here I am relatively at ease, in the 21st money talks and we have no appetite for war. Expect long speeches proclaiming how bad it is, sanctions but more?

It's pretty much a putin problem not a Russia one so my best guess at very high levels is they are trying to work out what to do. Nobody wants to hurt ordinary Russians

ZenNudist no need to be condescending; why shouldn't this be discussed on Mumsnet? It's a good thing to have curiosity about global events.

Op no one knows yet what this means for the rest of the world. It's obviously totally shit for Ukraine of course. It's a massively concerning situation.

From my limited knowledge garnered from readings newspapers etc:

• obviously Putin invading any independent, peaceful, democratic sovereign country is an international outrage, as it is an attack on democracy and freedom so this is a watershed moment

• the key thing here is whether Putin will be "satisfied" with invading Ukraine, and depending on how easy or difficult that is, or how ambitious/power hungry he is, whether he will decide to go on and invade other bordering countries

• at the moment NATO is saying they are not going in to help Ukraine defend itself militarily but member countries and EU are implementing serious financial and trade sanctions and some are helping by supplying weaponry

• Putin has warned that Russia will intervene "with consequences that you have never had before" if other countries step in to help

• nonetheless there is debate as to whether NATO will add air support to Ukraine

• if Putin does start to invade more countries beyond Ukraine it will probably be one of the Baltic States such as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, maybe Poland, and maybe Moldavia , Romania. It might be that Putin would go for Lithuania first as there is a large Russian population there.

• obviously crunch time will come if Putin decides to invade another country especially a NATO member. NATO and US troops are gathering on the borders of the Baltic States eg I think the UK RAF is in Estonia.

• many countries in EU, and UK, are dependent on oil and gas pipelines from Russian Federation

• many people are thinking back to 1939 when Hitler invaded Poland and triggered WW2

• reports from Ukraine are saying that they will resist strongly. Many of their veterans from the annexing of Crimea are in their thirties

• the EU have announced that they are united with NATO - strength in alliance - and Japan and Australia hare joining them to impose technology sanctions

• this situation is big test of new Ukrainian PM who was formerly a comedian

• all of this is part of a large global "adjustment" where power is no longer centred in the west - Chiba looking on with interest

Many people more knowledgeable than me can probably correct or add more!

@howdoesthisworktoday
I’m a bit nervous about this, I watched the life on a warship show a few weeks back and one episode the British submarine picked up a stealth Russian submarine that was getting a bit too close for comfort.

@CornishGem1975

I am very concerned. For Ukraine, for us. For everyone. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

And dismayed. After the shitshow of Brexit, and COVID, and our cost of living crisis...the last thing we need as a country is to be at war.

Your last sentence is what Putin is counting on - that the people of the west are so tired (and skint!) because of everything else that they will demand their governments don't get involved in the military aspect

ZenNudist

What a ridiculous statement, of course we can and must discuss this at length. Who cares how many chats there are on it either, it's breathtakingly worrying.

For the Ukrainians it's awful, and sanctions will hurt the ordinary people in Russia.

For us in the UK, ironically we're likely to be safe as we have so much Russian money here. The Russian nickname for London is 'The Laundry'

NATO in their speech this morning clarified all this, they have said explicitly that they will not have any military intervention with Ukraine. They do support Ukraine but will not have any military intervention what so ever.

NATO have explicitly said though that if Russia put foot on 1 inch on any of the NATO allied soil they will face the full military force of every single NATO member as they act as one. NATO in full defensive positions has now moved 1000`s of troops to the eastern border with over 100+ Aircraft, 100+ ships along all the eastern border.

Basically if Putin has pushes' military aggression on NATO soil he is declaring war on the entire west, and the west will use its entire force against Russia in a defensive way. Keep in mind NATO now has the largest military join force there has ever been assembled so Putin would be really have to lost his mind.

NATO is relying on sanctions from all other countries Ukraine is not a member.

I agree OP it is very worrying. I would like to believe all the posts saying “calm down you are getting a bit hysterical there will only be limited economical repercussions in the uk” but I seem to remember similar when covid was at the early stages and lots of posters thought those who were worrying were being hysterical

PLEASE use the 'in the news' topic to discus this. Iam having to hide multiple threads.

@Cocomarine

Oh come on, you’ve only seen one thread and that bashing the OP?

YABU to not look a bit harder by lunchtime on the day of a massive invasion.

Hint: number one thread in “trending now” all bloody morning has been an ever longer thread with plenty of further links and intelligent comment. Apart from the poster virtue signalling about her donations to Ukrainian animal rescue.

Jesus! Calm down. What do you care if the OP asks about it. She can ask whatever she likes. Just don’t click and respond on here if it posing you off. Bloody thread police.

NATO speech this morning.

@squashyhat

PLEASE use the 'in the news' topic to discus this. Iam having to hide multiple threads.

Maybe MN isn't the place for you today?

I'm absolutely terrified. Right now, Putin is the only world leader that I think is genuinely crazy enough to drop a nuke. He does not want to appear weak or a failure, so I Ukraine pushes back, and it looks like his invasion may fail, I fear he will drop one on them. If his invasion is a 'success', I ear he will take it further (and then we will just have repeats of what I have said above).

My DH assures me that he won't drop the nuke - he knows the moment he does that (especially on a NATO country), the retaliation will be immense. In order to succeed a nuke attack, he will have to drop them simultaneously on most of Europe and the whole o the US, as well as Japan, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, in order to avoid any retaliation. I know logically, my DH is right, but I am scared. Very, very scared.

All the media images of those poor, poor people fleeing. I've been crying reading the news reports and how it affects these people - I can't imagine waking up to what they did this morning.

squashyhat

PLEASE use the 'in the news' topic to discus this. Iam having to hide multiple threads.

Jeez, yeah go for a walk maybe

I am also concerned. Putin is unhinged. Who knows what other shit he'll try. Analysts are saying that Russia doesn't have the resources to keep Ukraine as occupied territory and him "reasoning" that the Ukraine is a "threat to Russia" is such BS.

However, no reasonable argument prevented him from invading. Who knows where he'll stop.

Putin cannot tolerate the fact that Russia's European neighbours don't want to be within their sphere of influence, but prefer to align with the West. He cannot accept that the old Soviet Union is over and gone. He also probably wants control of the Baltic. He's power-mad - and is likely betting that the EU and NATO have no stomach for a war. There's no immediate prospect of World War 3, but I have a horrible feeling he would rather risk that than back down.

[quote Cognoscenti]@howdoesthisworktoday Yes, but he is also a fan of sabre rattling, he will always say something incendiary to try to scare everyone else into backing down. It is a scary time though, I do see it's worrying for a lot of people.
I try to think about it logically when I'm worried, in that:

• It's no secret to the rest of the world that the UK has CASD and anti-aircraft missiles
• Putin is fully aware of MAD, if Russia fires a nuke at us, every NATO member retaliates immediately against them

The USSR developed Tsar Bomba back in 1961, they have always had an impressive nuclear capability, but I genuinely don't think it'll come to that. At the very least, on top of so many other reasons, it would gravely affect Russia too, and at the very least we know Putin really doesn't want that.[/quote]
This is exactly what I think but couldn't put it as well as you!

Putin craves power and people being fearful of him. It's very unlikely he'll do something that causes mass destruction. If he wants power he needs things to have power over.

Your last sentence is what Putin is counting on - that the people of the west are so tired (and skint!) because of everything else that they will demand their governments don't get involved in the military aspect
I have no desire for UK forces to get involved, not because I don't care about Ukraine - but because the only thing that will happen if we send forces is the deaths of a lot of our soldiers and destruction of most of our military equipment - we don't have anything like the people or equipment to take on the Russians.

Forget to add to earlier post:

• obviously US is the main man when it comes to military defence and obviously their response will be key (rather a large omission from list! )

• and another key thing is whether Switzerland will be prepared to "disable" Russian bank accounts.

• EU countries bordering Ukraine are preparing to receive refugees

@howdoesthisworktoday

I really wouldn’t worry over what Putin said about anyone intervening he’s trying to scare people, he’s not going to say ‘anyone who challenges won’t face any backlash’ it’s just words to scare people.

@itsgettingweird Someone being interviewed on the news said similar, that there's a lot of speculation that Putin is doing this to show his doubters he's "still got it". It's pathetic, just very unfortunate that the pathetic man doing it is so powerful!

@CurzonDax He won't nuke Ukraine - he's trying to piece the old USSR back together and effectively expand his territory. Plus, it's far too close to Russia and the fallout would affect them if he were to do it - he won't risk that.
He won't use his nukes at all, like you said, MAD ensures that every NATO country will fire theirs back at Russia, destroying the one thing he's passionate about expanding to gain more power. He'd be shooting himself in the foot and completely ruining his own plans, insane as they are.
His way of coming across as powerful is making ominous threats, showing off his military capability and invading smaller, militarily weaker countries. I would bet my life savings on him never setting (unauthorised) foot in a NATO country. If he tried to invade Poland, for example, even he would be in a hell of a lot of trouble.

Just been reported that there is a big protest happening in Moscow, Russian people coming out to tell Putin he needs to stop the invasion. They'll be scared of the repercussions his actions might bring too, he really is acting out (mainly) alone here. I imagine at least most of those following him (his armed forces and Belarusian army) are doing so out of fear and not admiration.