@AuntyBumBum
Thanks for your explanation
*@Cocomarine*, and I do see the benefits of the balanced approach, and yours makes sense.
I suppose my main point was that a guaranteed, steady, inflation-proofed income is massively expensive to provide, and although the shift towards drawdown is temporarily and superficially attractive, at some point over the lifetime of the current cohort of pensioners it is bound to go badly wrong. It's another big expensive risk which has been quietly shifted from employers onto employees.
I think the “badly wrong” point is interesting.
I know I’ve definitely thought, “but lots of stupid people will spend it all on a Ferrari at 55”!
The thing is though, although I have zero confidence in the temporary current government as individuals, I do actually have more faith in the more fixed civil service advising them. All a bit “Yes, Minister”, perhaps!
The trends for withdrawal are easily tracked, and they are tracked. If 95% of people were spending their entire DC pot in 2 years (and some will!) then the government would already know this. I read an article a while back that this wasn’t happening. I can’t find it now though, annoyingly!
But I also read and could still find this government qualitative survey on DC pension decumulation:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-freedoms-a-qualitative-research-study-of-individuals-decumulation-journeys/pension-freedoms-a-qualitative-research-study-of-individuals-decumulation-journeys#conclusions
It’s an interesting read. But my point isn’t really the detail of it, but the fact that it exists! The government is monitoring behaviour. For example, one finding from that study was that people are more likely to just spend where they have multiple small pension pots and take advice when they have one large one.
So - I’m thinking aloud, this isn’t in the link! - just to illustrate - if you identify that people will burn through 5x £20K but make careful decisions about £100K, you could introduce legislation that limited the number of small pots at 55, with “forced” consolidation before withdrawal.
I don’t see an unexpected ticking time bomb, I see a situation that will be tracked and responded to.
We already know that people pay more attention to retirement needs when they’re older. The pension freedom age moves from 55 to 57 (actually SPA minus 10) from 2028. If data shows that too many people clean out their DC pot from 57-60, the government can pass laws to delay access longer. I am confident that the DWP has people modelling all sorts!