Downing St Christmas Party - what's behind this?

[Leafyhouse]

Presumably someone knew about this for a year. And they've waited until just before Christmas to release it - and not all at once. They drip-fed allegations, waited for ministerial denials, then a few days later released damning video footage. I have 2 theories:

1. The media are looking for a scalp. Boris preferably, or perhaps Keir if he doesn't take the fight to the PM satisfactorily.

1. Rishi Sunak supporters. There's a perception that Boris needs to go, and the 1922 committee will show their hand soon.

1. Anti lockdown supporters. It looks like we may have to lockdown further before Christmas, and they're hell bent on undermining the PM's ability to do it.

What worries me is that no-one in the media is asking these questions. Which makes me think they're complicit.

AIBU to think we're being played like fools here?

Allegra Stratton was a complete fool in that clip and made a sensible decision to go.

Any trainee would automatically have said 'it was a business meeting with food' instead of 'what do you want me to say'.

I'm assuming she's had some sort of training in press relations or communications? Because if she did, she should ask for her money back. The only good thing is she confirmed it was filmed on 22nd December, for those who thought the background image showed it was done earlier this year.

And if she's confirmed she is upset (at getting caught) at her words, she's confirming there was a party. She had the ideal opportunity to state that there was no party. She didn't. What was not said told more than what was in that statement...

Very odd video for sure
Almost simpering

I can’t say I’ve got much sympathy for her, you lie with dogs and all that, but Her joking about it to a colleague doesn’t even scratch the surface of what’s wrong.

Exactly. Allegra Stratton isn't the problem. She presumably didn't organise the party, and wasn't the only person there. It's the law-breaking and the lying and the massive disrespect for people who were observing the law at great personal cost that are the problems. Allegra Stratton resigning doesn't solve any of that. It's just meant to make it look like it's fixed.

and well-spoken, I feel very sorry for her.

Well-spoken? WHAT?
How is that even slightly relevant?

@Floundery

I suspect a bit of Cummings hand in this.

This

@LondonJax The AS video is clearly a piss take of a downing street briefing, its not serious.

She and the people present are fooling about, she even looks half cut.

She previous worked for the Guardian and was Newsnights Political editor.

@Opal8

Very odd video for sure Almost simpering

I thought she was trying not to cry

I only heard it though - didn’t watch it

@urbanbuddha

I can’t say I’ve got much sympathy for her, you lie with dogs and all that, but Her joking about it to a colleague doesn’t even scratch the surface of what’s wrong.

Exactly. Allegra Stratton isn't the problem. She presumably didn't organise the party, and wasn't the only person there. It's the law-breaking and the lying and the massive disrespect for people who were observing the law at great personal cost that are the problems. Allegra Stratton resigning doesn't solve any of that. It's just meant to make it look like it's fixed.

Exactly this - and it's the reason I still can't stand Alastair Campbell. He was part of the problem.

The Conservative Party is a bit of a coalition.
Since Brexit, the right-wing libertarian crew have had a really large amount of clout. There are also a lot of quieter Conservatives. A lot of the old-school, 'one nation' style Conservatives were booted out over Brexit.

Boris Johnson was PM partly because he was popular with the electorate but also because he was able to command the backing of a wide swathe of the MPs (& members).

The leaking of this video basically told Johnson (& everyone else) he no longer holds the backing of a significant group in the Party.

It's been leaked now, I would guess, precisely because a group has selected a plausible candidate for PM & they reckon there's a good chance they'll oust Johnson.

It could have been just a shot across the bows, probably from the libertarians ('No Lockdown Restrictions! - or else!!) but I don't think so. It's gone further than that.

No-one fronted for Johnson. The right-wing press dropped him like a potato. He cannot have failed to notice he was friendless. All around him was the whistling of dead air where allies and supporters should have been.

It was an absolute demonstration to everyone that his ability to command support across the Party has evaporated.

So, yes, probably orchestrated by the right-wing of the Party. Probably undermining further lockdown attempts but, on balance, going much further than just a 'warning' to Johnson.

I think today's performance at PMQ was that of a dead man walking.

However, not enough to sway support to Labour, I think. Rather more about ensuring everyone in the Conservative Party knows it's time for a new Leader.

Don't think we'll see a challenge this side of Christmas. Calls to resign are a bit hopeful.

Leadership challenges are costly and need to be organised. This will have sharpened MPs minds about who they will back in. Leadership bid and made potential donors think about who they might contribute to for funding Mail shots to members.

I just can't think of what Johnson would have to pull out of the bag to fight off a well-funded challenge now.

He's lost the support of the ultra-right. He's lost his golden touch with the electorate. We know MPs are weighing up their chances for a challenge.

Can't help but think this leak was basically an an announcement to all that it's now game on.

@thecatfromjapan

The Conservative Party is a bit of a coalition. Since Brexit, the right-wing libertarian crew have had a really large amount of clout. There are also a lot of quieter Conservatives. A lot of the old-school, 'one nation' style Conservatives were booted out over Brexit.

Boris Johnson was PM partly because he was popular with the electorate but also because he was able to command the backing of a wide swathe of the MPs (& members).

The leaking of this video basically told Johnson (& everyone else) he no longer holds the backing of a significant group in the Party.

It's been leaked now, I would guess, precisely because a group has selected a plausible candidate for PM & they reckon there's a good chance they'll oust Johnson.

It could have been just a shot across the bows, probably from the libertarians ('No Lockdown Restrictions! - or else!!) but I don't think so. It's gone further than that.

No-one fronted for Johnson. The right-wing press dropped him like a potato. He cannot have failed to notice he was friendless. All around him was the whistling of dead air where allies and supporters should have been.

It was an absolute demonstration to everyone that his ability to command support across the Party has evaporated.

So, yes, probably orchestrated by the right-wing of the Party. Probably undermining further lockdown attempts but, on balance, going much further than just a 'warning' to Johnson.

I think today's performance at PMQ was that of a dead man walking.

However, not enough to sway support to Labour, I think. Rather more about ensuring everyone in the Conservative Party knows it's time for a new Leader.

Don't think we'll see a challenge this side of Christmas. Calls to resign are a bit hopeful.

Leadership challenges are costly and need to be organised. This will have sharpened MPs minds about who they will back in. Leadership bid and made potential donors think about who they might contribute to for funding Mail shots to members.

I just can't think of what Johnson would have to pull out of the bag to fight off a well-funded challenge now.

He's lost the support of the ultra-right. He's lost his golden touch with the electorate. We know MPs are weighing up their chances for a challenge.

Can't help but think this leak was basically an an announcement to all that it's now game on.

If the right want to do this who would replace him and get a similar landslide?

@Rade - it's dynamite now

@urbanbuddha

One of them surreptitiously filmed it, then sat on it for a year.

It wasn't filmed surreptitiously. Allegra Stratton refers to the fact that it's being recorded. It was some kind of mock session for her to practice questions and answers not long after she had started at Downing Street.

Yes and why did the questioner use that as an example question? Of all the things they could have asked and they chose to ask about that. It was a set up.

@thecatfromjapan

very plausible.

I can see why people think it’s a bit of nothing and might just go away.

But it goes deeper than an ill advised get together when London was in lockdown and Christmas cancelled for many, and people not allowed to see loved ones.

It shows that the prime minister has lost control of no 10 in that no one admitted what had happened or, more likely and in keeping with his character he was lying.

Also who is leaking this stuff, I reckon someone in Conservative party set to raise a challenge to The PM. Probably rishi sunack.

I think there's unlikely to be a similar landslide, Marsha. A whole storm of events produced that landslide: Brexit, Corbyn, Johnson's superficial charm.

There's no Brexit or Corbyn now - and the superficial charm has really worn off.

As for who else, well we all know the front-runners: Sunak and Truss. But we can have a few months of fun as we watch MPs jostling to get themselves in position, trying to build support in areas of the Party they don't 'naturally' speak to, and trying to raise their profile with party members and the electorate.

Personally, I'd like a return to pragmatic governing over scrambling for populism, popularity and donors/allies. Especially now. During a bloody pandemic.

However, I think a lot of the pragmatic wing found themselves ousted over Brexit. 🤷‍♀️

But we'll just have to wait and see.

@thecatfromjapan I can not see who can take over who could get a majority?

Johnson to hold a press conference at 6pm. Not much time for someone to craft a convincing speech!

@thecatfromjapan He will stay on, its too close to a GE to swap out leaders and once this all dies down, he will reassert his authority.

A bigger problem for the Tories is the utter failure to deliver the promises made in 2019, most people think his Brexit hasn't worked out well, failed on migration, no new hospitals, no HS2 for the 'north, no 50k extra nurses or more Police.
Then there are NI rises and huge energy price increases coming down the line, on top of inflation going up

People will soon forget a cock up over a party but being unable to pay bills and worrying about money, focuses the electorate.

@thecatfromjapan

I think there's unlikely to be a similar landslide, Marsha. A whole storm of events produced that landslide: Brexit, Corbyn, Johnson's superficial charm.

There's no Brexit or Corbyn now - and the superficial charm has really worn off.

As for who else, well we all know the front-runners: Sunak and Truss. But we can have a few months of fun as we watch MPs jostling to get themselves in position, trying to build support in areas of the Party they don't 'naturally' speak to, and trying to raise their profile with party members and the electorate.

Personally, I'd like a return to pragmatic governing over scrambling for populism, popularity and donors/allies. Especially now. During a bloody pandemic.

However, I think a lot of the pragmatic wing found themselves ousted over Brexit. 🤷‍♀️

But we'll just have to wait and see.

I feel a bit like the right is similar to Corbyn - they think they can swing the party away from the centre but whether they can actually win doing that is another thing.

Oust the superficial guy who won by a fair bit and maybe it won’t go so well.

Maybe Sunak can do it but hard to tell from this point.

No-one fronted for Johnson. The right-wing press dropped him like a potato. He cannot have failed to notice he was friendless. All around him was the whistling of dead air where allies and supporters should have been.

I was watching Sunak very closely at PMQs. There was no nodding, there was no baying, there was no looking up and over to the Opposition, or up at Johnson. He simply sat there, eyes downcast as though he wanted to be as inconspicuous as possible. Helps wearing a mask of course.

He will stay on, its too close to a GE to swap out leaders and once this all dies down, he will reassert his authority.

Thatcher won her last election in June 1987 and was deposed as leader in November 1990, less than three years before the next election. We're currently three years and a few days away from the next election. It's not too close at all.

@sashagabadon

If it is just footage of Allegra trialling the briefing room and not a party ( which seems to be the case) why all this media fuss? Why not just say “it’s footage of Allegra trialing the briefing room in preparation for January” . It’s such a non story that the media seem desperate to make into a story. Leading with it every news bulletin and all it does is undermine the government messages and so why do this? Personally I think it’s a handy story for multiple agendas for multiple groups of people not all of them usually aligned but happy to work together on this occasion

My response stating what was happening was in response to all the speculation about why the footage looked professional. Of course the party happened, of course they all knew it was wrong, and they brought it up because it was embarrassing and wrong, a naughty little secret they all knew.

Change no. 2 to either Michael Gove or Jeremy Hunt, and you might have something there. This is much more their style.

By the way, I know no-one has done it on this thread but ... can I just make a heart-felt plea against cynicism?

I hear so often, 'Oh, all MPs are the same. They're all sociopaths, liars, etc. ...' but, honestly, they're not.

They're (mostly) humans. And a whole load of them go into politics, quite genuinely, to make a difference to people's lives.

I disagree, politically, with a whole load of decisions some make but I think it is really important not to become overly cynical.

I do think Johnson is a scrote. I really do. But there is a world of difference between him and, say, Tobias Elwood. The latter, I think, is a good example of why letting your ability to judge and discriminate dissolve into an overwhelming cynicism is not healthy or helpful.

Tobias Elwood's politics are not mine and never will be.

But he's a good example of why we should never cease to judge Johnson for the moral failure he is on the grounds that there is nothing better and no point in demanding better.

We deserve better. And, believe me, there are many, many MPs who are better.

Prime Minister Gove.

I can't express the amount of horror this thought causes.

Hunt slightly less so.