Gap year travel, help ...advice please

[Rainingagaininseattle]

Hello, not sure where to post this.

My 18 year old son is on his gap year. He plans to do a guided tour mid march, which goes to lots of countries in Europe for a month. He's paid the £50 deposit and the full amount of £2,500 is due mid December.

I'm really concerned about the covid situation. It'll be cancelled if 50% or more of the countries are in lockdown or can't be entered but will go ahead (with possible modifications to the route otherwise).

If it's cancelled he has to claim on his insurance for a refund. He has decent insurance.

Wondering what people think, if it's likely to happen? Do you think it's a massive risk? I'd be interested to see what you all think please...

Didn't mean to enable voting, sorry!

I really hope someone can tell me what they think. Realise it's not an AIBU but didn't know where to post.

For the sake of a £50 deposit personally I would cancel now and rebook something nearer the time when advice is clearer. But then I'm quite risk averse.

Id be tempted to cancel too but book another trip with someone like Gadventures who will carry over any payment if a trip ends up being cancelled because of covid.

I'm just not sure now is the time to get the most of Europe - with stuff shut, bars and restaurants not operating normally etc.

On the other hand if he's with a group they'll make their own entertainment and sightseeing will be much less crowded.

I wouldn't cancel for Covid related reasons.

It's really hard isn't it? Hopefully things will be a lot better by March. I do think so, but who knows.