@HereLiveIAmNotACat
I bought in 2019, Mortgage £1k per month (5 year fixed rate), deposit of £58,800- 15%.
the market rental for my flat is £1400-£1600. Service charges are £150 per month.
£1400-£1150=£250.
I am paying £1k mortgage per month, plus overpaying another £1k to reduce my mortgage. Ok, so at the end of 5 years (end of my fixed rate), i estimate my mortgage balance to be roughly 250k based on Martin Lewis mortgage overpayment calculator.
My interest rate is now 2.05%. Great if interest rates drop. But if they rise to 5%, my mortgage would be £1262 so if you count the service charges, it would be the same as rent. If they rise to 6%, my mortgage would be £1425. The fact that it could rise by so much is not completely crazy given that the base BOE interest rate was 5.5% in 2007 (and mortgage interest rates tend to be higher).
It would be astonishing if the interest rate does not rise in the span of a 35 year old mortgage. Certainly it would be unprecedented. I am not saying it can't happen but if you look at history, there is a reason why banks stress test any mortgage applicants to check if they can withstand rise in interest rates. This is a risk people take when they buy their homes, that their mortgage could become unaffordable. If a renter's rent is unaffordable, they can downgrade, it is painful, but yes it can be done. If a home owner can't afford the mortgage, they would have to sell the house (and usually if there is a sudden interest rate spike, there would be plenty of people who also can't afford the mortgage and would also sell, plus the potential buyers can't afford to take out mortgages either). If they can't sell, the bank would foreclose and they lose everything, all the equity they had in the house. it is game over. If its not your primary home, the risk is even greater as BTL mortgages tend to have higher interest rates.
Of course an interest rate rise would be good for home owners with a lot of equity and first time buyers as it means they can buy/ move up the ladder more affordably but the flipside is that they could lose everything if they can't afford the rise in their mortgage from higher interest rates and are also in negative equity. There is therefore no guarantee of recouping your deposit or even making a profit. Yes if they stuck it out for 35 years, they would probably make a profit, but a lot can happen in 35 years.