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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

When will climate change cause mass migration and food shortages?

41 replies

howdoyoudoitttt · 13/10/2021 19:41

I keep reading about this, in comments as part of larger articles. It's very concerning, and I'd like to read more about the predictions around these issues, if anyone can recommend?

Am worried about climate issues but still find it quite difficult to wrap my head around what it could actually mean in real terms for people around the world.

OP posts:
sst1234 · 13/10/2021 20:00

It won’t. It will just cause humans to innovate. Vertical farming anyone?

Original poster
howdoyoudoitttt · 13/10/2021 20:04

Innovative farming makes me hopeful yes!

But in terms of migration, surely that will have to happen if large areas are flooded or being destroyed with wildfire?

OP posts:
MrsTerryPratchett · 13/10/2021 20:05

Surely it has already. Or did you mean for white people?

FreeBritnee · 13/10/2021 20:05

I suspect it will happen but I’ve no idea when.

Original poster
howdoyoudoitttt · 13/10/2021 20:06

I live in a city with some really interesting roof gardens - they are quite amazing, and apparently good for the building because of how they affect the drainage when it rains, as well as what you can grow on them.

OP posts:
Orangejuicemarathoner · 13/10/2021 20:07

Climate change is already causing mass migration and food shortages

Indoctro · 13/10/2021 20:09

By 2050 the world will be very different and not a nice place for many or so they predict

Suzi888 · 13/10/2021 20:09

@MrsTerryPratchett

Surely it has already. Or did you mean for white people?
^ this
TerraNovaTwo · 13/10/2021 20:12

When will climate change cause a global pandemic? Or when will mass migration and food shortages cause a global pandemic? When will globalisation (its predecessor being colonisation) cause climate change, food shortages and a global pandemic?

When will overpopulation qnd advances in human evolution cause the above?

Too late mate.

Original poster
howdoyoudoitttt · 13/10/2021 20:12

@MrsTerryPratchett

Surely it has already. Or did you mean for white people?
I'm sorry, no I don't mean for white people, I mean for everyone.

I am acutely aware that it is the world's poorest and most vulnerable people who will be most affected. I honestly don't know if migration or large scale crop failure has started happening already - but these are the kinds of things I want to read and learn about hence the thread wondering what the future looks like, and what strategies are possible to do help. I can't find much detail, just eg generalised articles that for example list 10 cities at most risk from rising water levels etc.

OP posts:
TerraNovaTwo · 13/10/2021 20:17

@MrsTerryPratchett

Surely it has already. Or did you mean for white people?
What about white British colonials who have returned to the UK and are practically classed as shit under the shoe of the working and middle classes of Britain, competing for services and natural resources? We are treated as appallingly as BAME British nationals IMO.
bubbletrumps · 13/10/2021 20:17

I expect the powers that be will have to decide who they're prepared to allow into this country and how far they'll be prepared to go to prevent it.

I think there'll be bloodshed in other countries. I think within 20-30 years.

MrsTerryPratchett · 13/10/2021 20:19

www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/

There's a start. Bangladesh, Micronesia, sub-Saharan Africa all currently struggling. Indigenous populations as well.

Sorry to be snippy, it's just no one seems to give a crap if NY isn't under water.

MrsTerryPratchett · 13/10/2021 20:20

What about white British colonials who have returned to the UK and are practically classed as shit under the shoe of the working and middle classes of Britain, competing for services and natural resources? We are treated as appallingly as BAME British nationals IMO.

Firstly, no.

Secondly, how is this related to climate change?

Indecisivelurcher · 13/10/2021 20:23

So a 2 degree warning is usually quoted as the threshold for dangerous climate change, which is why its the internationally agreed target. I believe we're already at about 1.4 degrees warming. And currently on track for more like 4 degrees unless things change.

2 degrees means serious changes in weather, no ice in the Arctic in the summer, and 2 degrees is an average so effects will be uneven, I think Europe is supposed to be higher than average warming.

Depending on what we get up to between now and then, we look like breaching 2 degrees between 2035 and 2060.

The government's advice to business is to plan for 2 degrees but risk assess for 4 degrees. Even here in the UK water companies are already looking at water transport across catchments to supply the south east.

Most articles seem to talk about things like mass migration by 2050.

I haven't double checked any of this, going off memory!

Indecisivelurcher · 13/10/2021 20:27

Op the Earthshot prize show that's been on the BBC just the other day is perhaps worth a watch, for examples of what's already going on. Although I think a lot of it was about biodiversity more than climate change, there was climate change too and imo we shouldn't compartmentalise!

gardeninggirl68 · 13/10/2021 20:31

@Orangejuicemarathoner

Climate change is already causing mass migration and food shortages
shortages of what,exactly?
Indecisivelurcher · 13/10/2021 20:40

I saw this article the other day :
www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/pasta-shortage-climate-change-b1934089.html

I've read that in the US water shortages and severe storms are causing the loss of multiple billions of dollars of crops and cattle. I think California and Nebraska were mentioned.

Porcupineintherough · 13/10/2021 20:42

Is this a joke? It already is.

FangsForTheMemory · 13/10/2021 20:45

It won't. It will cause famines and wars.

MrsSkylerWhite · 13/10/2021 20:47

MrsTerryPratchett

Surely it has already. Or did you mean for white people?“

This, really. It’s happening already but because it’s mostly affecting poor people, far away, the western world tends to turn a blind eye. It’s only recently, with fire and flood in first world countries, that they’re finally being forced to take notice.

It’s a glossy pile of old nonsense but I always cry at The Day After Tomorrow when, after being treated like shit by the US for as long as anyone can remember, Mexico welcomes its citizens in.

SunscreenCentral · 13/10/2021 20:47

Potable drinking water is where it's going to be a massive problem
Did you not all learn at school about people who had to walk for many miles daily for water to cook with in sub-Saharan Africa? Those problems haven't gone away. And they're starting to appear in "first world" countries.

Original poster
howdoyoudoitttt · 13/10/2021 20:54

@SunscreenCentral

Potable drinking water is where it's going to be a massive problem Did you not all learn at school about people who had to walk for many miles daily for water to cook with in sub-Saharan Africa? Those problems haven't gone away. And they're starting to appear in "first world" countries.
Yes, drinking water and sanitation are very worrying (and always have been).

I remember a few years ago some guy wanting to trade futures contracts on water - horrifying, but I can see why anyone who is driven by money at all costs will come up with this sort of idea.

OP posts:
Original poster
howdoyoudoitttt · 13/10/2021 20:56

@MrsTerryPratchett

https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/

There's a start. Bangladesh, Micronesia, sub-Saharan Africa all currently struggling. Indigenous populations as well.

Sorry to be snippy, it's just no one seems to give a crap if NY isn't under water.

Thank you for posting this. I remember when the IPCC report was about to be published, and meaning to read it. Alas am chronically ill with crap brainpower and completely slipped my mind Blush
OP posts:
MrsTerryPratchett · 13/10/2021 21:03

It’s a glossy pile of old nonsense but I always cry at The Day After Tomorrow when, after being treated like shit by the US for as long as anyone can remember, Mexico welcomes its citizens in.

The science in that film is terrible but that bit is great!