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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To be bewildered by this? (Ireland)

21 replies

GianaSister · 01/10/2021 08:29

I can’t wrap my head around it. I’m sure it’s to do with statistics and I might have missed how it’s calculated but it still doesn’t make sense to me.

I couldn’t sleep last night so I decided to scroll through my phone and ended up reading about natural disasters before I attempted to go back to sleep (Hmm) and saw a list ranking countries most at risk of natural disasters.

Qatar is apparently least risky, ranked 181 and Vanuatu is most risky ranked number 1. The USA is ranked 134, the UK is slightly less risky at 140 but Ireland is more at risk than both ranked at 125. AIBU to not see how that makes sense? The USA has loads of natural disasters that completely wipe out entire communities by way of devastating hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, flooding and wildfires. The UK has seen some of these too but on a much lesser scale IMO so I don’t see how it’s only 6 places in front of the USA but I am baffled how Ireland is seen as more prone to natural disasters than the USA. This is also done by year, not throughout history, and I also checked a list from 2018 in case covid had skewed the results but the listings were the same. Does anyone else find that weird or is there something obvious I have missed?

This is the link I saw: reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/WorldRiskReport-2020.pdf

OP posts:
HarrietsChariot · 01/10/2021 09:13

I think part of it is the ability to survive and recover from the disaster.

The US has buildings designed to withstand earthquakes and tornadoes, the UK and Ireland tend not to factor these into building designs because they are much less likely to happen.

The US also has the resources to recover quickly. It's size means resources are dispersed all over the country. If an entire state was decimated by a disaster there are still 49 others that can send rescue teams, without needing to ask for help from other countries. Many states are bigger than the UK and Ireland so if either country was completely devastated there would be no internal resources left.

The huge size of the US means that people could be evacuated to a safer area if a disaster was anticipated. For example, if a disaster meant that it was not safe to be within 200 miles of the coast for a few months, the US has the space to comply with this (would be terrible but it's possible). No way could the UK or Ireland move their entire populations a similar distance within the country.

Taxwolf · 01/10/2021 09:20

Interesting. All of DH’s family live by the sea in SW Ireland and would be wiped out if there was a tsunami caused by an earthquake in the North Atlantic or that volcano in La Palma collapsing. Very unlikely to happen but maybe that’s what they mean. Also I believe Dublin is likely to be affected badly by sea rises due to global warming.

rocklamp · 01/10/2021 09:27

If a disaster happened in the UK you'd have only a 50/50 chance of getting an ambulance and making it into a hospital which has virtually no medical staff or nurses. You'd be put on an 18 month waiting list for an urgent scan and die waiting for it.

Original poster
GianaSister · 01/10/2021 09:59

I think part of it is the ability to survive and recover from the disaster… The US also has the resources to recover quickly. It's size means resources are dispersed all over the country. If an entire state was decimated by a disaster there are still 49 others that can send rescue teams

Wouldn’t that come under coping capabilities? There’s a separate column for that and Ireland ranks as more capable to cope than both the UK and the USA. I get the point about the size difference though.

Also I believe Dublin is likely to be affected badly by sea rises due to global warming.

As far as I can tell it’s done year by year, not a projection of what could happen in the future.

There is probably some reasoning to it but a blanket statement of Ireland being more at risk of natural disasters than the USA is something I can’t wrap my head around.

OP posts:
steppemum · 01/10/2021 10:03

maybe it is in relation to the head of population?

20 people dying in a hurricane is awful, but as a % of the US population it is low, compared with same number in UK?

RocketPanda · 01/10/2021 10:04

It's to do with mini tornados. Ireland and Scotland get loads of them. They don't do any damage but any tornado has the potential to do damage. That's where the statistics come from.

LadySybilRamekin · 01/10/2021 10:19

Well, we got a few inches of snow back in 2017 and the whole country came to a standstill... maybe they factor in the rate of restocking Brennan's Bread?

The mini-tornadoes sound like the actual reason though.

Original poster
GianaSister · 01/10/2021 10:30

I didn’t know about the mini tornadoes so just looked it up and it said Ireland has an average of 10 per year. By contrast, the USA has an average of 1000 normal tornadoes per year so it can’t be that surely?

www.met.ie/tornadoes-an-irish-perspective

OP posts:
PlanDeRaccordement · 01/10/2021 10:34

The rankings are based on per capita impacts of natural disasters. The US has 380m people in it, but Ireland has only 5m.

So, you would need to have 76 natural disasters in US for every 1 natural disaster in Ireland.

idontlikealdi · 01/10/2021 10:45

@HarrietsChariot

I think part of it is the ability to survive and recover from the disaster.

The US has buildings designed to withstand earthquakes and tornadoes, the UK and Ireland tend not to factor these into building designs because they are much less likely to happen.

The US also has the resources to recover quickly. It's size means resources are dispersed all over the country. If an entire state was decimated by a disaster there are still 49 others that can send rescue teams, without needing to ask for help from other countries. Many states are bigger than the UK and Ireland so if either country was completely devastated there would be no internal resources left.

The huge size of the US means that people could be evacuated to a safer area if a disaster was anticipated. For example, if a disaster meant that it was not safe to be within 200 miles of the coast for a few months, the US has the space to comply with this (would be terrible but it's possible). No way could the UK or Ireland move their entire populations a similar distance within the country.

Not really, look at the devastation on trailer parks and to their crappy timber framed new builds from tornadoes / hurricanes. Perhaps in big cities but the builds in a lot of the US are shoddy.
Original poster
GianaSister · 01/10/2021 10:50

@PlanDeRaccordement

The rankings are based on per capita impacts of natural disasters. The US has 380m people in it, but Ireland has only 5m.

So, you would need to have 76 natural disasters in US for every 1 natural disaster in Ireland.

But how does that fit in with my post above yours, that Ireland gets 10 mini tornadoes a year but the USA gets 1000 (plus then all the floods, wildfires, earthquakes etc)?
OP posts:
PlanDeRaccordement · 01/10/2021 11:07

It’s per capita affected by the natural disaster- damage to homes, injuries, lives lost, etc. The US may have more recorded tornados, but most of them will happen in nonpopulated areas and cause no damage.

KrisAkabusi · 01/10/2021 11:07

As far as I can tell it’s done year by year, not a projection of what could happen in the future

I think this is where you're going wrong. It is a projection. Ireland is currently at quite a high risk of rising sea levels. If sea levels do rise, as a small island we would be affected more than other countries. The report specifically mentions sea level as one of the things they look at. They may recalculate the risk annually based on new data, but they are still making a forecast.

Original poster
GianaSister · 01/10/2021 15:35

^^ Both of these posts makes it make more sense now, thanks. I still find it weird considering that Ireland is deemed more at risk than the US though given what we have seen reported in the news. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Ireland in the news because of a natural disaster.

OP posts:
VodselForDinner · 01/10/2021 15:43

Does that include incidents involving wooden spoons?

Original poster
GianaSister · 01/10/2021 19:28

@VodselForDinner

Does that include incidents involving wooden spoons?
I feel as though this might be some sort of joke but I’m afraid I don’t get it!
OP posts:
Peggytheredhen · 01/10/2021 19:31

Following. I don't know (obvoiously) but statistics are a bit weird!

Peggytheredhen · 01/10/2021 19:32

obviously

Iflyaway · 01/10/2021 19:56

Op, aren't you catastrophising (sp?) a bit?

We don't know what the future will bring. Look at La Palma.

In the 80's they "knew" a huge earthquake would hit California and it would disappear into the sea

We don't know what will happen in life. Best to live it to the best of your ability.

Original poster
GianaSister · 01/10/2021 22:18

@Iflyaway

Op, aren't you catastrophising (sp?) a bit?

We don't know what the future will bring. Look at La Palma.

In the 80's they "knew" a huge earthquake would hit California and it would disappear into the sea

We don't know what will happen in life. Best to live it to the best of your ability.

No? That is actually the complete opposite of this thread, if you actually read it.
OP posts:
VodselForDinner · 01/10/2021 23:06

I feel as though this might be some sort of joke but I’m afraid I don’t get it!

Sorry, I had assumed you were Irish. It’s an in-joke.

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