AIBU in thinking that there’s a bug in the COVID data this week?

[InkKeepsRunning]

I’ve looked everywhere on line, but I can’t see anyone talking about it. The COVID figures appear to have stabilised at around 40,000 per day across the last 4 days.

That’s not how a virus which grows exponentially usually works. It seems to be far too early to the the natural plateau given only about 50% of the population is vaccinated and we won’t yet have seen any benefits of school holidays.

So - can anyone explain what’s going on, or am I being unreasonable in thinking we are going to hear in the next few days that there has been a data blip and “something” has been missing?

Have you rearranged it to an 8 week gap, EvilPea? I wouldn't be double jabbed now if I hadn't.

In Wales, most adults have been double vaccinated. However, none of these graphs account for the surge we will get from people returning from foreign holidays, those who can still be asymptomatic carriers, or any further mutations. Bumpy ride ahead

@noblegiraffe

Have you rearranged it to an 8 week gap, EvilPea? I wouldn't be double jabbed now if I hadn't.

No DH had the text to bring his forward, I haven’t had mine yet. I’m also not at 8 weeks yet

You don't need to wait for a text, you can just cancel and rebook.

When I did this, I was offered appointments from 8 weeks after my first (I was at 7 weeks).

Same for me. I cancelled and rebooked before getting the text.

When you’re post 8 weeks you can most likely get one at a walk in centre if you wanted. Dh got his second like that a few days ago.

The Scottish figures have continued the downward trend correlating to schools breaking up last month.
There is less testing but positivity also starting to drop and hospital figures slightly.
What is notable this time is that one area isn't going crazy, its spreading out but more evenly.
I think people are unnecessarily pessimistic. We need to remain cautious but I don't see it being the disaster some of Mumsnet want to predict.
Hospital numbers are less than half than they were when schools reopened this year.
Suspect behavioural analysis shows the benefits of opening at higher rates on persuading younger or more hesitant to be vaccinated

Many people will now have antibodies. It has spread like wildfire through schools and colleges, and a high proportion of adults are double jabbed, many adults from 18-30 are now single jabbed which while it won't provide full protection, is likely to slow spread and reduce cases somewhat.

We are nearly there.

twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1418599773053980674?s=19

Some speculation here. End of the football. School terms, people taking kids out of school early to safeguard holidays. Weather good meaning open windows and outdoor socialising.

ITV new at 10 had an expert on last night who was of the opinion that not so many people are being tested as they want to go on holiday/continue working and said we should be looking at the amount of positive tests coming out of the people who are testing for a guideline although I haven’t seen that information anywhere.

I know you can still catch it and transmit it after vaccination and infection but it must be much reduced. Maybe we're seeing the effect of the vaccination programme as well as immunity in individuals who have been infected and recovered? But that's just a guess

This is great news, although I read on the BBC that cases had fallen for the last 4 days running, rather than plateaued.

We really need to ditch all this over testing with LFTs. It's made people terrified and panicky for no good reason.