To think there MAY be a chance of a garden party in April

[JenIsAGem]

Sons first birthday end of April, AIBU to think there may be a chance we could have a family get together in our garden?

YABU - absolutely no chance!
YANBU - possibly?

@GranaryBread47

I think we'll be put back into tiers and it's unlikely that having 30 people in an enclosed, albeit outdoor, space will result in 0 cases. You'll may be able to have up to 6 but is it even worth the risk of having that many people? The gov aren't going to put us straight back to normal because they want this to be the last lockdown so we're unlikely to get the covid-free spring and summer everyone seems to be expecting.

Yes, it is worth the risk.

Absolutely no chance for 20-30 people. I think it'll be 6 people like before.

I feel for you though. My son was born into a lockdown at the end of march last year, and it's likely he'll have his 1st birthday in some sort of lockdown-esque restrictions.

No way. Agree maybe 2 households, or a very slim chance of 15 as this was the arbitrary wedding number.

Interesting to read people's responses, thank you.

People asking if it's worth the risk, it's not just about my 1 year old, it's about family being together. We've stuck to the rules 99% of the time & our family is desperate to see him, being born in lockdown isn't fun. We've barely seen anyone since he was born so him turning 1 feels like a huge milestone given everything that's happened. It would be amazing to celebrate together.

A lot of our family are key workers including myself, and (will) have already had our vaccines. We've had our first doses in January.

To be honest I think my quick estimate of 20-30 was a bit too high. It's probably be more like 15 which yes, is probably unlikely to be allowed. It would still only be meeting with another 2-3 households but they aren't single households.

My heart goes out to all the families & DC (and obviously everyone else) struggling because of covid. It's downright sh**ty.

I think too many people

We are also trying to second guess the government's rules that will be in place in April, we are hoping, for up to 10 people can meet (that would cover my family) but its unlikely as PP it might be 2 households or rule of 6.

if its tiers than we can't do anything, as we all live in different places unlikley to be under the same tier. TBH the only thing that would work is if they lifted everything but that is a pipe dream

I think it's unlikely OP, but if there's anything the last year has taught me, it's that it's impossible to know what will happen tomorrow let alone in 2 months!

I think we'll be put back into tiers and it's unlikely that having 30 people in an enclosed, albeit outdoor, space will result in 0 cases.

It's highly likely that it will result in 0 cases. My area currently has 5 cases in the last 7 days, out of over 8,000 people, and it's been falling week on week. If you picked 30 random people, chances are that none of them will have covid.

@GranaryBread47

I think we'll be put back into tiers and it's unlikely that having 30 people in an enclosed, albeit outdoor, space will result in 0 cases. You'll may be able to have up to 6 but is it even worth the risk of having that many people? The gov aren't going to put us straight back to normal because they want this to be the last lockdown so we're unlikely to get the covid-free spring and summer everyone seems to be expecting.

It’s really very, very likely that it would result in 0 cases. And yes, of course it’s worth the risk.

If you picked 30 random people, chances are that none of them will have covid.

Exactly. Plus even if they did they’re very unlikely to infect anyone in a garden (a garden isn’t an ‘enclosed, albeit outdoor, space’, it’s just an outdoor space). Plus even if they did infect anyone that would only represent any kind of significant problem if any of those people was somehow vulnerable enough to become very ill from Covid but not vulnerable enough to have been vaccinated or to have stayed away from a low-risk outdoor party. So when you think it through, it’s absolutely fine, so much so that you really have to wonder about the motivations of anyone who claims it isn’t.

I'm not usually a 'everyone should stay in until there's zero cases' type person, but my initial reaction was 'hell no'. I think people are making Christmas-like plans for Easter when even Johnston has said we're looking at Lockdown 4 if we don't tread carefully come March/April lifting of restrictions.

Most people haven't even had a second vaccine, we dont actually know what the results will be after that, it's still weeks before we have any solid evidence we're on top of this. That's not factoring in any more mutations. Honestly, I think April for bigger gatherings is looking very optimistic. Don't get me wrong, I really hope I get proven wrong, but I think people will have to be realistic in their expectations until at least summer. Especially if we want to avoid another full lockdown and look at schools closing again come autumn.

*overly optimistic

@MiddleParking

If you picked 30 random people, chances are that none of them will have covid.

Exactly. Plus even if they did they’re very unlikely to infect anyone in a garden (a garden isn’t an ‘enclosed, albeit outdoor, space’, it’s just an outdoor space). Plus even if they did infect anyone that would only represent any kind of significant problem if any of those people was somehow vulnerable enough to become very ill from Covid but not vulnerable enough to have been vaccinated or to have stayed away from a low-risk outdoor party. So when you think it through, it’s absolutely fine, so much so that you really have to wonder about the motivations of anyone who claims it isn’t.

At the moment ONS figures show that about 1 in 80 people in England have Covid www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

By April that may have gone down, or up, depending on how many extra contacts people are having as restrictions are removed- we absolutely know that when schools reopen cases will increase.

@MiddleParking So when you think it through, it’s absolutely fine

If someone attends a party with 30 people there the chance of unluckily coming into contact with someone with Covid increases and so does the potential to pass it on. I totally agree that the outcomes should be nowhere near as bad now as the most vulnerable are vaccinated. But if everyone in the UK's 66million population attends just one party with 30 family and friends in April that is a lot of contacts! It would increases the cases, whether that would put enough strain on the NHS to throw us back into lockdown I don't know but it might halt school reopenings or other sectors reopening that have livelihoods depending on it.

My DC has a birthday coming up I'd love to do them a party. Would love to see our families especially as we didn't at Christmas but we need to the vulnerable groups vaccines to be administered and had a few weeks to take effect before we are out of the woods and can resume social activities. April is probably just a bit too soon. If it's wet and cold won't the temptation be for everyone to head indoors?

I’m sorry I also think this is unlikely but I think by June or July it will be fine, so you can just delay a few weeks.

Nope, my guess is rule of 6

Absolutely no way 30 people could meet.

Your revised figure of 15 is slightly more likely, but probably not as soon as April.