What do you think the economy will look like over the next few years?

[AbsentmindedWoman]

What are the biggest ramifications of covid going to be do you think? What industries will find it hardest to recover?

Globally, what do you think will happen?

Obviously, nobody knows. But I'd be keen to hear what knowledgeable folk think may be on the cards.

Any thoughts?

I'm very optimistic, yes sadly so many people have lost work, but many have also kept theirs and managed to save. Everyone I know including myself are chomping at the bit to LIVE again and eat out, go away... Travel... Go to the sea side etc..coffee shops!
So.. I'm think there will be a boom but I'm not sure about brexit at this moment in time..

I think we, and our children, will be paying for the Chancellor's Covid spending spree for the rest of our working lives. I worry that taxation will become more punishing.

An awful mess, I'd have thought.

I work for a real estate organisation and it's likely there will be less demand for office space, so big investors that had gone into that or, God help them, retail, will be in trouble.

A lot of retail will be really up the spout - premium malls and city centres probably will bounce back, and awful lot of secondary shopping areas will be totally tumbleweed, many may be replaced by residential, and care will have to be taken that those homes still have good access to shops and amenities.

I reckon house prices will drop once everything really starts striking home (no pun intended) and possibly more job losses hit the white collar lot - at the moment house prices are still going up because, by and large, the 'home owning classes' are doing OK for themselves. Keeping jobs and spending less, so in a good position to move, especially if they want to upsize to somewhere further from work. But the wheels have to come off that eventually.

I think those of us fortunate enough to hold onto our jobs will be taxed to the absolute hilt for decades to come. I can see me handing all my pandemic savings over in tax and I certainly won’t be spending any of it sadly.

I think a smart move would be to tax us doing-OK-white-collar types more, big online-retail and the super rich a lot, lot more rather than further austerity, but sadly I fear the gov knows that this (God knows why) would probably lose them more votes than the entire COVID/Brexit debacle.

I expect lots of offices will be turned into hotels, there will be less business travel, people will be keen to have holidays and meals out, more UK holidays (due to not wanting to fly, and travel becoming more expensive due to less business travel)

We are fucked. The government will use this to bring about every ideological cut they ever dreamed of.

Their handling of the pandemic has shown they couldn’t organise a piss up in a brewery so not holding out much hope for the fall out of Brexit.

Its challenging. Likely demand for most things will return with some slight shifts but problem is that lots of companies will go bankrupt. Since demand is still there other companies will buy up those assets for cheap and put them to work. As a consumer not sure how much will change. The real unfortunate part will be all the small business owners who have lost their livelihood and retirement. They'll suffer the most out of any group. Employees who get made redundant will likely get hired in other jobs as demand returns but those small business owners won't be able to get their businesses back.

I don’t think we’ve seen the start yet and won’t until furlough ends and repossession/eviction ban ends in April. I expect the last 6 months of 2021 to be financially grim. I expect this time next year we’ll be talking about the economy like we now talk about Covid. Same world round though I guess.

There will be it’s of pent up demand for holidays and cafes. And people will definitely go out out.

But, there will be people (like me) who have really cut back on their consumption and quite like it. And we won’t spend as much as we did. So savings will go up.

I'm optimistic. Lots of pent-up demand and forecasts for growth. Some industries have boomed, others have suffered. We will be paying off debt for a long time, but so will the rest of the world.

It'll be absolutely fucked. The borrowing for covid could be paid back over several decades, much like we paid back the loans taken out to pay for WW2.

However, brexit will take a massive toll. Exports are already seriously down, and the impact on imports hasn't made it's mark yet. When the government brings in the controls in April then we will see more firms going out of business.

I suspect we'll see a serious reduction in gdp with the usual suspects, Gove, Johnson, Farage, all blaming covid when the real cause will be brexit.

This thread so far:

We're fucked.
We're fucked.
Yes, we're deffo fucked.
I'm optimistic.
I'm optimistic.
I'm also optimistic.

So much negativity as always as per MN, but it's nice to see a small slice of optimism too. I'm in that camp too, to help balance out the thread.

There will be less foreign holidays and more domestic holidays instead, but it will balance out again in 2-3 years. Revellers will take nightclubs, concerts and festivals by storm! Car usage will still be reduced in the long term because of the new ways of working and it's good for the environment. However, I'm still all for using the roads if it means going to the cinema, shops, clubs, getting taxis back home etc. Roads should be used for pleasure, not business :-)

Don't forget that two things have driven the economy over the last decade, and whatever impacts covid has, both of these two core drivers will change in the direction of a slow-down: the growth and dominance of China (growth is slowing) and low interest rates (rates will rise again as central banks cut rates to very low levels for quantative easing). Overall, we are looking for a slower economy over the next decade. There will be a short boom as economies wake up after covid, yes, and people will go to cafes and on holidays. That'll last a year or so until we remember that there's less money floating around than there was.

Other predictions:

There'll be more uncertainty in investments; more volatility. What the reduction in base interest rates has given, volatility will take back. The overall cost of capital will remain roughly as it is (after falling solidly for the last decade).
Retail as we know it will never come back.
Long distance flying will be hit with additional taxes to account for carbon emissions.
Europe will go through a world of trouble as a result of its untapped immigration from syria, turkey and the north of africa. Expect civil unrest.
China will continue its military expansion, will flex its muscles with all its neighbours and hong kong as we know it is screwed.

The watchword over the next few years is going to be flexibility.

I have lived through a few economic crises. As ever, there are winners and losers. But I also think that the social crisis has pushed us further along than many economic driven crises have.

Some people will want things to go back to exactly as they were but I dont think that will be possible. We know more now.

I could see the cruise industry not recovering. Norovirus damaged it, covid carried on that damage. I can see a lot of destinations not being keen to risk having cruise ships docking.

The wedding industry will recover but I can see there being a lot less enthusiasm for huge weddings booked a long way in advance. This will have an impact on the wedding peripherals industry. I can see large weddings coming back but being less complicated, simpler affairs.

The WFH genie cant be quickly put back in the bottle. While some middle managers will want to get all staff back into the office a lot of senior managers will be looking at the cost of office space and wondering if it is really needed. This isnt just big city firms but all companies.

A culture of WFH will have impact in a lot of areas: people choosing housing where they can have WFH space, couples choosing to have one car rather than two. WFH benefits home deliveries rather than shopping in person.

WFH will also impact holidays. I am noticing fewer people having days off to carry out minor personal admin tasks (waiting in for trades etc). This means more holiday taken for actual holiday which means more leisure spending.

Holiday plans are going to be more spur of the moment rather than long term planning for at least the next couple of years.

There will be more gaps on the high street not just because businesses have failed but because more business has gone online. There will be plenty of business start ups, fewer 2 year old businesses.

The government will look to use Brexit to its advantage.

It will do lots of spending that would have crossed all the EU’s State Aid rules. This is likely to involve significant public spending in the North and in eg freeports.

I predict Britain’s economy will do very much better than France, Spain or Italy in recovery.

I'm less concerned about me, and more concerned about how the cost of the covid nonsense will affect my children. My eldest leaves school in 5 years, what will it be like then? They'll still be paying the covid debt off

Fucked.

And when it gets there, more fucked.

@Echobelly

An awful mess, I'd have thought.

I work for a real estate organisation and it's likely there will be less demand for office space, so big investors that had gone into that or, God help them, retail, will be in trouble.

A lot of retail will be really up the spout - premium malls and city centres probably will bounce back, and awful lot of secondary shopping areas will be totally tumbleweed, many may be replaced by residential, and care will have to be taken that those homes still have good access to shops and amenities.

I reckon house prices will drop once everything really starts striking home (no pun intended) and possibly more job losses hit the white collar lot - at the moment house prices are still going up because, by and large, the 'home owning classes' are doing OK for themselves. Keeping jobs and spending less, so in a good position to move, especially if they want to upsize to somewhere further from work. But the wheels have to come off that eventually.

It's nice to hear from someone working in that industry that is actually being honest about things crashing eventually. It really pisses me off seeing articles bleating that house prices will for ever skyrocket in price (in the hope that it might materialise into the truth.) People's wages aren't really increasing that much (unless you are in hospitality and transport), so I'm not sure how that is supposed to be sustainable.

I think it will bounce back relatively quickly, already is really. But we will still get taxed heavily. Our council area, an SNP one, is already raising tax for us, despite promising they wouldn't and hiding money. But that's just politicians, don't care about us.

Better than we thought. People were very much saying how nobody would be able to get jobs and how terrible it all was. Most people I know who lost their jobs including myself are all back in work. Hospitality is thriving also.

@Lettly

"House Repossessions"

I think that quite a few people will receive letters from thier bank for mortgage arrears. They will panic no doubt and try to sell thier house quickly which is the wrong move in some cases. I have already saved a handful over this summer by paying there arrears and saving them from loosing thier houses. If anyone is in this position or know someone who does, please email me [email protected]

I'd suggest learning to spell a bit better before you try to spam the board with advertising.