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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to be glued to Gamestop this week!

95 replies

DiamondHanded · 29/01/2021 18:48

I can't be the only one, who else is hooked on #GME?

I'm quite surprised at how much influence Elon Musk has. Any experienced trader sorts care to suggest how this will pan out?

OP posts:
listsandbudgets · 30/01/2021 14:27

@tttigress

The thing is, these businesses unfortunately have no future, so it is actually logical to short them.

So they will eventually go out of business, then go to zero.

This.

There's no incentive to short traders to buy things they think are going to do well. If your stock is being shorted, it is not generally a ringing endorsement of your future prospects.

listsandbudgets · 30/01/2021 14:52

Here's an explanation in simple terms from the BBC. Its quite a clear and simple overview BBC - game stock video

ElliFAntspoo · 31/01/2021 13:17

Collusion to move markets is against the law.

The assumption is that hedge funds do this all the time, but without evidence of collusion it will never stand up in a court of law. Hedge funds also have the legal resources to fight such a case.

On the flip side of that, participants in Reddit thread recording the intent to collude to move the markets are also recording the fact that they intended to break the law. They may delete their posts. They may conceal discussions in private chats or e-mails, but none of it is removeable, and all of it is discoverable.

So I think we will see examples made of the people who broke the law. Prison time done. Homes taken away from families of the conspirators, etc. You have people who have not thought about the consequences for their families and their children who have taken actions that could result in their families being destitute.

In order to restore confidence in the market, they have to make examples of these people and terrify any future conspirators in such schemes from doing the same. They have to do this or risk seriously damaging the stock market and all the financial institutions that underwrite the companies in the chain of custody.

The can also just not pay out on any of the investments. The majority of these investors are not bought any stock at all. They do not actually hold any shares in the companies at all. They just think they do, but as novice investors, they don't actually understand how the stock market works. So they lock them out of selling their positions 'pending judicial review', leek rumours that the platform is in financial problems, let other stock holders close out their positions and move their investments elsewhere, and then file for bankruptcy leaving the locked in investors with nothing but a claim against an insolvent company. They never owned any shares in GME anyways.

ElliFAntspoo · 31/01/2021 13:27

Aside - Is the next short squeeze going to be the silver mining companies?

DiamondHanded · 31/01/2021 13:51

Well someone bought a billboard in NYC!

twitter.com/i/status/1355617591587430405

Anyone who sees that and decides to buy some GME is making their own decision to and following a trend. That is how popular stocks sell all the time! The strong message all over the reddit board is that this isn't about the money, nobody cares if they lose their stake - the point is to buy and hold no matter what. That is why it is causing ripples Grin

If anything that is more honest than the marketing I have seen in the past touting various stock as great investments.

No-one should ever gamble more than they are prepared to lose.

Short selling companies for 100% plus (and then publishing that and using it to push the company out of business as a profitable bet) is dark.

OP posts:
TravellingTilbury · 31/01/2021 14:21

@ElliFAntspoo

Aside - Is the next short squeeze going to be the silver mining companies?
I came on to see if anyone was mentioning silver. We'll see!
Sinful8 · 31/01/2021 14:23

@DiamondHanded

but doesn't shorting shares force companies to go out of business or am I misunderstanding?
Not exactly in this case the hilarious outcome could be the short sellers don't have the volume of shares required to cover thier shorts so the company may decide to bailthem out by issuing them new shares at an above market premium.
ElliFAntspoo · 31/01/2021 14:34

I came on to see if anyone was mentioning silver. We'll see!
Well, the potential fallout would be bigger I'd imagine, because isn't it needed for all the green energy and modern technology and things? That said, I'd expect someone like Apple or the CCP to be going directly the the miners and buying up future supply directly, so I don't see that any of this can happen with companies that have a solid market.

Buccanarab · 31/01/2021 15:22

Too late to buy in. The move has already happened. Its gonna drop like a stone, but a lot of people made a lot of money, so good on them.

I read that as long as the reddit investors hold their stock the hedge funds will continue to loosemoney.

At some point the hedge funds will have no choice but to buy back the shorted shares at the inflated price, which will further increase the stock price in GME. Obviously there will be a point were all the shorts have been recovered and then the price will plunge but I don't think we've seen the peak yet.

I also read that there was somewhere between 140-260% of the total gme shares shorted which just seems very dodgy to me but I'm sure there's a loophole somewhere that allows that.

So I think we will see examples made of the people who broke the law. Prison time done. Homes taken away from families of the conspirators, etc. You have people who have not thought about the consequences for their families and their children who have taken actions that could result in their families being destitute.

Given the current unrest/Ill feelings toward governments/authorities in the US (and elsewhere) that would be a incredibly stupid move.

Imagine the outrage if Joe blogs is sent to prison while Mr Wallstreet gets off scott free again. I'm not saying that legally that's the wrong outcome but that's how it'll be seen if they go down that root. Essentially saying it's OK to cheat the system as long as you're rich enough to cover your tracks.

MoonriseKingdom · 31/01/2021 15:33

If the Redditors hold their nerve does anyone have any idea when things will come to a head? ie when the shorters will have to pay out. Can’t say I understand it all but it is fascinating!

ElliFAntspoo · 31/01/2021 15:39

I read that as long as the reddit investors hold their stock the hedge funds will continue to loose money.
It is all notional book entries. None of the stock certificated have changed hands. The Reddit crowd have only taken up notional positions on paper, and those can be wiped out or reversed by a judge, or a bankruptcy filing, or any number of other precautionary measures. They can also be frozen out of their accounts and allowed to walk away with nothing.

The majority of the Reddit crowd appear to have leant money to an App, such as Robinhood, and in exchange have been given an unsecured book entry saying that the App now has a debt to them at a value equal to the value of X shares in GME. But they don't own any shares in GME at all, and there is nothing they can do if Robinhood chooses, or is unable to, pay that debt obligation. Their loan to Robinhood was not secured against anything.

Imagine the outrage if Joe blogs is sent to prison while Mr Wallstreet gets off scot free again. I'm not saying that legally that's the wrong outcome but that's how it'll be seen if they go down that root. Essentially saying it's OK to cheat the system as long as you're rich enough to cover your tracks.
We'll have to see what happens, but the Reddit group absolutely broke the law, and documented themselves doing it, so I can't see them giving them a free pass to threaten the economies of the world again. They need to stamp on these people hard to drive fear into the rest of main street not to break the law if they are going to trade.

I could also see Robinhood getting a fine, but that fine will likely be notional and not amount to more than 5-6% of their annual profits.

ElliFAntspoo · 31/01/2021 15:47

@MoonriseKingdom

If the Redditors hold their nerve does anyone have any idea when things will come to a head? ie when the shorters will have to pay out. Can’t say I understand it all but it is fascinating!
Unless a buyer asks for his shares to be transferred into his name, then we are only talking here about one party paying another party to settle a debt obligation. The hedge funds will likely just say that they will not pay the debt obligations until such times as the obvious market manipulation has been through the courts. So this is going to court, and if the hedge funds can produce documented proof that Reddit users colluded to manipulate the market, they are unlikely to lose. If they are likely to lose, then they will close up shop, and the hedge funds will have no money in their accounts to settle with anyone anywhere. So holding out from the Reddit crowds' point of view is a guaranteed way of walking away with nothing except a huge legal bill, and as I understand it in the US, the Reddit Crowd have to pony up the legal expenses even if they win if the fees cannot be recovered from the opposite side. The lawyers always get their money. Not something I'd bet my house and family's future on, but the I don't go on Reddit.
lubeybooby · 31/01/2021 15:56

going to be very interesting all this week and possibly next. I've bought in (not much but a bit!) and don't care if I lose anything, Its worth it for the entertainment

I think it could be a much slower process than expected so I'm in it for the long haul if need be. Diamond handed all the way

DiamondHanded · 31/01/2021 15:58

www.marketwatch.com/articles/the-gamestop-revolt-has-just-begun-get-ready-51611972649?mod=mw_more_headlines

The sense from some on Wall Street was that all of this was wrong—if it didn’t rise to criminality, it at least overturned the order of things. But frankly, it’s not clear there is anything wrong with it. NYU’s Damodaran said he expected there to be continued cries of “ ‘we should regulate this, we should stop it.’ The reality is, I don’t think you can do it.”

The fact that a large number of investors had the same opinion about a stock and drove it to ridiculous levels isn’t illegal. If someone infused those discussions with misinformation, that might be different, and qualify as market manipulation, which is illegal. But finding manipulation in a boisterous online forum is a “needle in a haystack” problem, said Columbia Law School professor John Coffee.

OP posts:
lubeybooby · 31/01/2021 16:07

also wanted to add that one look at the reddit boards makes it clear nothing there is organised or co-ordinated. Nothing. No leader. No collusion. We're literally a bunch of absolute idiots posting memes and occasionally getting lucky and don't spend more than we can afford, and take a big loss with just as much joy as a big win. Told you we're idiots.

GME just happens to be a one in a million lucky streak and people are bandwagon jumping.

If anything needs regulation, it's the hedge funds driving businesses into the ground by shorting stock, or even worse, counterfeiting stock and then naked shorting it!

DiamondHanded · 31/01/2021 16:10

I have looked at the reddit forum and it is all "I like the stock" memes interspersed with gamestop memories past and repeated;

"this is not financial advice"
"don't gamble what you can't afford to lose"
"I am holding and don't care about the money"

Have not (in many hours of following this) found anything that promises anything for anyone, that doesn't seem to be the point at all. Also the authorities and politicians (from both american sides now) are backing the retail investors (which is why it is so fantastic to watch).

OP posts:
DiamondHanded · 31/01/2021 16:11

x post!!

OP posts:
HamAndButterSandwich · 31/01/2021 16:15

@starfro Exactly. The wolf of wall street essentialy went to jail for doing exactly this: pump and dump. The idea that the everyday reddit user is somehow getting one over on 'wall street' is insane. A hedgefund is hardly going to have a significant portion of their portfolia in gamestop. They're going to be massively diversified and hedged. Naturally the online brokers are going to be freaking out if they end up with a huge position in a stock which is inevitably going to come crashing down. I do feel sorry for people who have been duped into this. This is why there are actually incredibly strict regulations in dealing with consumer clients. No way could anyone with a professional qualification offer advice like this and keep their job, but of course you can comment on reddit all you like.

chomalungma · 31/01/2021 17:31

So short stopping..

I get the idea of borrowing shares from a broker. And then you have to return them at a given date.

I get the idea of saying that you think the shares will drop in value.

But then what happens ? Does someone take a position that the shares won't drop in value?

What happens to the shares that are borrowed?

If you are making money because the value of the shares have dropped, who have you made the money from?

ElliFAntspoo · 31/01/2021 17:35

Well, I've bought in.. some popcorn. Its gonna be fun to watch. Can't see the people with money losing out to the people without any, especially when the Reddit crowd don't actually have any stocks. Only a promise of stocks.

PelvicFloorTrauma · 31/01/2021 21:42

GameStop’s CEO’s stock has gone from 10m to a billion. Company’s accounting year ends tomorrow. He can’t sell till the numbers are out. Wonder what his weekend has been like?

PelvicFloorTrauma · 31/01/2021 21:44

CEO is also Jewish. Amusing, given the overt anti-semitism of a lot of the Redditors and their relish for impoverishing Cohen, etc.

SimplyRadishing · 31/01/2021 21:51

If you think gamestop was good start watching silver...

ElliFAntspoo · 01/02/2021 11:21

@SimplyRadishing

If you think gamestop was good start watching silver...
Please explain the mechanic of how that can happen. Silver is a commodity, not a stock.

You can short sell commodities, but you can't counter that by buying up contracts, and the miners have underlying value. They own the commodity in the ground and the mining operations themselves, and it would appear as though the majority of short selling is done by the miners themselves as a means of freeing up capital to invest in mining and not to pay dividends to shareholders.

I'm just looking to understand the angle that people seem to think this may happen on. I see a lot of people saying they think it will happen, but no one seems to be able to explain how or why?

MuchasSmoochas · 01/02/2021 11:31

It’s not silver as a commodity, it’s the iShares Silver Trust which Citadel is long in so they are pumping it to get more funds as they have lost billions in GME.
Complete nonsense about going to jail, losing houses, come on. We just like the stock. 🤷‍♀️ 27@$78. Can’t stop, won’t stop, GameStop 💎 🙌

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