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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to question the popular belief that there are more stars in the sky than grains of sand on earth?

354 replies

Tryingtryingandtrying · 24/01/2021 18:52

How can this possibly be true? Tbh I'd question if there were more stars than grains of sand on my local beach? I've read a bit around it and still is impossible for me to comprehend. Any other facts or theories that just don't make sense to you?

OP posts:
SpeverendRooner · 26/01/2021 18:22

This is a megapost. The TLDR version is: knowledge is conditional. Cosmological observations are solid, cosmological models are solid (in a different sense), but there's always room for surprises betwixt the two. As it stands, our models are well tested and you can see some of that evidence for yourself.

There is a point here about the way science operates.

There are inarguable facts from experiment or observation: distant galaxies display redshifts and the whole sky glows faintly in microwaves. There's loads of other predictions, but those are the biggies.

Separate from that, there's the models that scientists use to integrate these observations. These are mathematical models, and contain loads of things that are not directly observed. A trivial example: my own direct observations right now are about my retina's light sensors and the touch sensors in my fingers as I type. I have a mental model of an external world that includes a laptop, and that neatly explains all of those stimuli - but strictly, that's an inference. I might be trapped in the Matrix, for example.

Scientific models are the same principle as these mental models. We have a lot of experimental results that we try to fit into a coherent worldview. It turns out that maths is a really powerful tool for that, lacking the imprecision and ambiguity of natural language. And the simplest model that explains cosmological observations is the Friedmann equations, which predict an infinite universe (or a closed finite one, but that's pretty strongly ruled out by details I'm not going into here). Friedmann actually wrote down the equations in 1922 (from memory), and cosmological redshifts weren't seen until 1929, and the glow of the sky (the Cosmic Microwave Background) not until the 1960s (accidentally, by a couple of engineers, much to the annoyance of scientists who were trying to scrape together grant money to look for it and got scooped...). So those are cases of observations being made that tested the model, and it passed those tests.

So there are three things going on here. One is the experimental data. That's a fact of life - deal with it. The second is the model. It's perfectly coherent mathematically, and can reasonably be described as containing an infinite space in which distances expand. If that is problematic for you, can I suggest that you probably don't understand mathematical concepts like infinity as well as you think you do. They are subtle and can be extremely counterintuitive - for example, I've already shown in this thread that the set of integers is the same "size" as the set of even numbers, despite integers including even and odd numbers.

But the third thing is that it's reasonable to ask whether the model is a completely accurate description of the universe. It's possible it's not. However (and it's a very big however), it's a model that is completely consistent with everything we know, and is as simple as we can make it. If you don't like the infinities then you need to add things to the model. To posit an edge you need to say that the physical laws are different elsewhere, even though they don't appear to be different anywhere we can see. Or you need to add some effect that somehow cumulates to produce an edge out of our sight. And you need to do this in such a way that it doesn't break the predictions of the model where it's been tested.

I'm not actually expecting @AStudyinPink to do that - I'm just pointing out the implications of her position if one were to take it as a serious proposition. Building new theories and models that are consistent with the limits imposed by experiment and observation but have features that a person might consider desirable is hard. So at the moment (with a few question marks), the simplest interpretation of the evidence is the standard model of cosmology (Friedmann's model of spacetime plus more detail in how particles interact, sometimes called the Lambda-CDM model) points to an infinite universe.

I would say that rejecting the opinion of experts because they are unable to fully describe their area of expertise unless you become an expert yourself is rather silly. If a topic could be explained completely in simple terms then you wouldn't need to be an expert in it to even try to explain it. That's true in any field. But, it's reasonable to ask: should I believe this person who claims to be an expert? I'll offer an opinion on how to answer that. I'd say that you should look at whether they are forthcoming about the limitations of what they are telling you. And I would say that you should look at their track record of predictions.

Having said that, I'll observe that I've just spent waaaay too long trying to make a distinction between observations (solid - they are what they are), the maths of the model (self consistent), and the comparison of a model to reality (we haven't seen any differences, so we accept it the way I accept that there's a laptop in front of me). And I'll add that there are open questions around the nature of dark matter and dark energy, and the very early universe that may one day change our models. I'll also observe that I deliberately mentioned a couple of predictions this particular model made that you could look up. You could also read about the CMB fluctuations and their power spectrum (www.astro.ucla.edu/~wright/CMB-DT.html) and see how well the Lambda-CDM model line matches the data points, and look up Big Bang nucleosynthesis (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) which shows good agreement between theory and experiment, with some question marks around Lithium.

So (at least by my own measure Grin) I'd say that there is plenty of evidence that cosmologists know what they're talking about, whether it makes sense to a lay audience or not. Of course all knowledge is conditional on new information coming to light. Morpheus might pop in here with a red (blue? I forget which one took you out of the Matrix) pill, and we might find something to improve on our cosmological models. But until that happens, "the universe is infinite, and space is expanding" is the best I can do without maths.

AStudyinPink · 26/01/2021 18:31

Lots of room for doubt, then.

SpeverendRooner · 26/01/2021 18:33

@ChocBeforeCock - I actually can’t even conceive of how you could discuss if the universe is expanding using maths, it blows my tiny mind that you can communicate the kind of concepts discussed here using only numbers. I’m not doubting it at all, I’m just saying it is waaay beyond me!

It's surprisingly easy. You describe a uniform density of matter ("stuff is the same everywhere", which is true at large scales) and feed that into Einstein's Field Equations and out drops an expanding universe. It's one of the relatively few solutions known to Einstein's equations that you don't need a supercomputer to get.

@SpeverendRooner it’s interesting what you say about models being proven right usually.
I wouldn't say that. Ninety nine point nine percent of the time they're wrong, or just don't say anything useful. But the ones that survive for a few years are very hard to find flaws in. That's because there's so many ways you can try to break a theory that if it doesn't break almost immediately after you start using it to make predictions, it's a pretty good model. The problem with our current models are that we're pretty certain that they should go wrong in the early universe and inside (or maybe near) black holes, but they're apparently better than our current experimental capability because we haven't managed to catch them in a mistake yet...

I watched a documentary on them taking the picture of the black hole and I was fascinated to see it looked exactly like they thought it would!
That's a really cool project just on general principles. And it's looking near a black hole, so it's possibly really interesting from a fundamental science perspective too (although that's probably optimistic, sadly).

SpeverendRooner · 26/01/2021 18:34

Ugh - bold fail. First line of the second paragraph in my last is supposed to be all bold, quoting ChocBeforeCock.

SleepingStandingUp · 26/01/2021 18:48

@ErrolTheDragon

What about floods?
I don't understand why it doesn't all just spread out. I mean o get it but my brain just can't comprehend in the moment water up to the windows miles from a river. And tsunamis. Why doesn't it just ask spread out and retreat
Lonelycrab · 26/01/2021 18:50

Really interesting stuff, Spev, thanks for posting.

SleepingStandingUp · 26/01/2021 18:51

@DGRossetti

But I like genetics and not chemistry

If history has taught us nothing else, it's that the division of sciences is purely a human construct ...

Anyway, it's all physics, isn't it Smile

I mean that's cruel and unnecessary.
ErrolTheDragon · 26/01/2021 19:01

I don't understand why it doesn't all just spread out. I mean o get it but my brain just can't comprehend in the moment water up to the windows miles from a river. And tsunamis. Why doesn't it just ask spread out and retreat

It does, but it takes time. If you roll a ball down a slope it doesn't instantly get to the bottom, and if it's an uneven or rough slope or there are bottlenecks, and there are lots of balls, there will be pileups which slow it down.

ErrolTheDragon · 26/01/2021 19:04

Anyway, it's all physics, isn't it

Physics and stamp collecting is the quote, I believe.Grin

SpeverendRooner · 26/01/2021 19:15

I should have refreshed the thread, as I see several people made similar points to me. I've been reading through. I thought this one was interesting:
But it’s all founded on the same fallacy: that there is such a thing as an infinitely long piece of string. Of course you can pretend, and use mathematics to illustrate the outcome of that fairy story, but unless you show me how it is possible for a piece of string to be infinite, I will continue to treat it as a thought experiment.

It's a very strong statement that there can be no such thing as an infinitely long piece of string. I don't see why it would be impossible to describe such a thing in an infinite universe. A very long piece of string would be problematic - it would collapse towards its center under its weight (there's a reason most astrophysical objects are more or less spherical). But an infinite one has no ends. In fact, there is a known solution to the Einstein Field Equations describing such a thing - the Tipler cylinder (it has interesting properties if you make it spin).

So we can describe an infinitely long piece of string, and what the universe would look like if it contained one (and nothing else), in great detail. It doesn't seem impossible that we could describe a universe containing an infinitely long piece of string and the stuff we do see. I don't know if it's possible to do that or not - but @AStudyinPink apparently does know, going by the quoted statement. Which is an interesting exception to her scepticism.

peapotter · 26/01/2021 19:27

I would say there still isn’t anywhere near enough evidence to say whether the universe is infinite. Yes, the Friedman equations and Big Bang work well, good explanation by the RevSpooner, but like most models they will be an oversimplification, and one day will be improved and refined. Just like Einstein did to Newton. The view among observational cosmologists, at least the ones I know, is that it is unknown and we are many steps back from knowing.

A good layman’s summary of how I understand it (bearing in mind I haven’t done any theoretical astrophysics for 20 years now) is here www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/10/14/ask-ethan-is-the-universe-finite-or-infinite/

Infinity is a tricky concept in physics. Whenever we find one in an equation it’s a sign we’re a bit lost- take black holes and quantum mechanics for example.

peapotter · 26/01/2021 19:30

And as for water and gravity, there are definitely some strange things happening when you see 45 degree bogs half way up Scottish mountains. I’m not convinced...

BobbinThreadbare123 · 26/01/2021 19:37

@ErrolTheDragon

Anyway, it's all physics, isn't it

Physics and stamp collecting is the quote, I believe.Grin

Good old Ernest Rutherford, apparently genuinely affronted to have won his Nobel for Chemistry and not Physics Grin
Sidge · 26/01/2021 19:55

So I’m not a scientist, and most of what I’ve read on this thread has blown my tiny mind, but I thank all you clever people for your input. It’s been fascinating.

It’s almost like my brain can’t compute the maths and physics of it. I read the words and nod along but inside my brain is going whhhaaaaaaaatttt.

I like the end of Men in Black when the alien is playing marbles with our galaxy. 😁

BlairWaldorfLovesShopping · 26/01/2021 19:57

@AStudyinPink

the string doesn't have to be a piece of rope it could be a string of photons or galaxies or onions.

Sure. You can have a theoretical string of onions. That doesn’t mean one exists. I’m not here to discuss imaginary onions.

But what if they were numbers, as @DadDadDad suggested? That might make it easier for you.

(Loving the work of @SpeverendRooner and others on this thread, thank you! I’m no scientist or mathematician but wrote my Philosophy dissertation on the topic of infinite numbers, so finding this thread very interesting)

Lonelycrab · 26/01/2021 20:40

Talk of black holes up thread lead me to this: www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/10/12/ask-ethan-how-dense-is-a-black-hole/
Apparently if you squashed the earth down to the density of a black hole, it would be about the size of a grapeShock

peapotter · 26/01/2021 21:04

Interesting article lonelycrab, thanks for that.

It actually says if the earth became a black hole then it’s size (the event horizon) would be that of a grape. Different black holes have different ‘densities’

Big black holes have very low density, if you just divide mass by event horizon. But the standard theory has all the mass in an infinite point in the centre. Which causes problems because infinity isn’t nice, and nor is quantum mechanics.

The article has an interesting solution to do with rotating stopping the singularity forming (infinite density), which would be nice. Shame we can’t test it though. It’s a perfect theoreticians dream, one that we can’t disprove!

SpeverendRooner · 26/01/2021 21:28

I have to say I don't like the Siegel article about black holes. It says a lot of stuff that's wrong about the density of black holes (it's actually not a well-defined quantity, since defining the interior volume is...tricky), although it kinda-sorta corrects itself towards the end. And the singularity most definitely isn't a point at the center - it's more like a time (the reason you can't escape a black hole, or at least one way of explaining it, is that the singularity is as unavoidable as Monday morning once you're inside the hole). And the singularity is one dimensional, not zero dimensional.

And I wouldn't like to appeal to rotating black holes to get out of all the problems. The ring singularity is also one-dimensional as far as I'm aware, and there are closed timelike curves around it, meaning that you could loop around and meet your past self. Which is a pretty improbable feature. However, the rotating black hole solution is unstable, meaning that small differences from the perfect symmetry assumed by the model Siegel and I are talking about (Kerr black holes, if anyone wants to look them up) have huge consequences, so a realistic black hole interior probably doesn't look like that. Even assuming that general relativity holds all the way down into the core of a black hole, and I think most physicists would say it probably doesn't. So there's lots of ways out of those issues - mostly "further research needed", though.

Oddly, the Forbes article about cosmology linked by peapotter, also by Siegel, seems pretty sensible.

peapotter · 26/01/2021 21:53

I got the impression the first article was general, whereas the second was the authors own research... haven’t checked though.

I think you have a better grasp of the theory than I do. I just want to know what we can observe to test it... which is nothingi! I’d love to know what we can test that is in the realm of infinities and infinitesimals, maybe something quantum?

MasterBeth · 26/01/2021 22:26

Thank-you for the mega post, @SpeverendRooner, which has added to my understanding even as it has sailed over the head of a certain sceptic/troll.

MasterBeth · 26/01/2021 22:28

Although, tbf, “I’m not here to discuss imaginary onions” is a great line.

ErrolTheDragon · 26/01/2021 22:44

I’d love to know what we can test that is in the realm of infinities and infinitesimals, maybe something quantum?

As a simple-minded chemist, nice discrete quanta avoid infinitesimals - and of course, quantization of radiation was discovered by Plank as the solution to the black body radiation problem, whereby classical theory incorrectly predicted infinite energy output from a 'black body'. Grin

wohmum · 26/01/2021 23:54

@ThePants999

Whenever I want to feel insignificant, I like to look at the Hubble Ultra Deep Field. Click on upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0d/Hubble_ultra_deep_field_high_rez_edit1.jpg, zoom in, and marvel at the fact that the tiniest dots in this image are galaxies with hundreds of billions of stars - and that this picture represents one twenty-sixth-millionth of the sky.
Mind blown
BobbinThreadbare123 · 27/01/2021 06:29

There is a black hole test analogue with sound - a sonic black hole. That's worth a look. Somehow easier to understand with the familiarity of sound waves and the smaller scale!

CarterBeatsTheDevil · 27/01/2021 06:48

There's so much brain on this thread! I'm a humanities person with very little science brain but I can't wait to read this properly. Much tea will be required, obviously.