To ask why there isn't a long term strategy re covid

[ForestNymph]

Lots of threads, lots of opinions regarding lockdowns. However something that stands out to me - whether you're for or against lockdown, the facts of the situation that everyone seems to not dispute are a) the virus is here to stay and b) the main goal is to not overwhelm the NHS/slow the virus down, not eradicate it.

The problem is NHS capacity as much as anything else, right?

So why not reintroduce the bursary for student nurses/paramedics/etc? Why not incentivise ITU training? Why not expand the hospitals we currently have? Why not invest in more doctors per patient?

It seems nothing is being done for the long term and everyone is just dallying and hoping on a vaccine. Which is great but until we've vaccinated people we don't actually know how effective it'll be, whether a strain will eventually mutate and render it useless etc. It seems utterly stupid to put all our eggs in this vaccine basket when we know that medical treatment can save lives if we have access to it.

Just me? And the money argument doesn't hold up, they've pulled money from their arses for everything else.

Didn't they already fast track students to help in the pandemic, only to dump them in summer when they were excess to requirements? Yeah, I mean, I have only used the NHS to have my appendix removed and to give birth. One of those led to malpractice due to not enough staff, which has possibly had life altering consequences for my son.
Not that I'm bitter or anything.
I digress, but the fact remains that it's hard to believe anyone co uld possibly be that incompetent. Of course, the " he's doing his best brigade" keep the bar low.

all viruses mutate.

People seem to love to scaremonger over how ineffective the vaccine is going to be, almost as if they want a vaccination programme to fail.

And for those judging how quickly (or not) the vaccine is being administered, it’s been one week added to which, even though it will take some time to vaccinate everyone, the more people are vaccinated, the less risk there is from the virus.

If you e.g. vaccinate all the elderly/vulnerable and NHS workers, then you have a situation where less people will have serious reactions to the virus and as such the hospital capacity will increase. And as the vaccine is issued, so herd immunity will begin to develop. Not herd immunity from the virus being able to spread unchecked, but from people having immunity through vaccination, so the more people who have this, the less people are likely to spread the virus, and the less unvaccinated will become infected.

No one said ontl coronavirus mutates. Obviously all viruses mutate, dont understand your point there

Yes a lot of scare mongering on here from people that don’t understand the facts.

As I said it was fully expected this virus would mutate, and the vaccine has been developed with this in mind.

Yes many people won’t be able to receive the vaccine because of allergies or other reasons. That doesn’t matter. Let’s go mad and say only 50% of people have the vaccine. That means only 1 in 2 people can get the virus, who can then only pass it 1 in 2 people, who can then only pass it on to 1 in 2 people etc etc. The virus would shrink rapidly.

Supply problems with the vaccines because of ingredient shortages/ disasters? There are so many different vaccines being produced in different parts of the world - this really is a non issue.

Only 137,000 vaccinated so far? That’s a very good achievement considering where we were in March when no vaccine existed at all. Now we have a vaccine, the vaccination program will ramp up massively.

@Doris86

Yes a lot of scare mongering on here from people that don’t understand the facts.

As I said it was fully expected this virus would mutate, and the vaccine has been developed with this in mind.

Yes many people won’t be able to receive the vaccine because of allergies or other reasons. That doesn’t matter. Let’s go mad and say only 50% of people have the vaccine. That means only 1 in 2 people can get the virus, who can then only pass it 1 in 2 people, who can then only pass it on to 1 in 2 people etc etc. The virus would shrink rapidly.

Supply problems with the vaccines because of ingredient shortages/ disasters? There are so many different vaccines being produced in different parts of the world - this really is a non issue.

Only 137,000 vaccinated so far? That’s a very good achievement considering where we were in March when no vaccine existed at all. Now we have a vaccine, the vaccination program will ramp up massively.

I understand it fine its a stupid policy to sit here waiting for something instead of taking a proactive approach. There's always the possibility of something throwing a massive spanner in the works. I'm not scaremongering either. I think it will likely work fine. But I want solutions if it doesn't. I want solutions if its delayed. Its not good enough to say this is Plan A, I want to know what plan B, C and D is in case of any issues that arise

Part of the problem with recruiting more nurses and doctors is that some are turning away from medicine. It is not pleasant working under extreme high pressure with, sadly a higher number of patients and relatives who are abusive and demanding. I cannot believe how much is expected and how little staff are actually valued. Reading comments regarding how awful the NHS is and how they dare do TikToks on breaks and how they do little is souls destroying. I am desperately trying to get my DH to leave, he suffered a massive breakdown and it was largely due to the job. Our family life it’s torn to shreds every year and it would be worth it if there was a little stress and a bit more love. Until then I am battling to get him to leave and I know a number of NHS workers who are at breaking point, that was prior to Covid

Because people voted for a Government that will always put party before country. Or haven't you noticed yet?

@eeyore228

Part of the problem with recruiting more nurses and doctors is that some are turning away from medicine. It is not pleasant working under extreme high pressure with, sadly a higher number of patients and relatives who are abusive and demanding. I cannot believe how much is expected and how little staff are actually valued. Reading comments regarding how awful the NHS is and how they dare do TikToks on breaks and how they do little is souls destroying. I am desperately trying to get my DH to leave, he suffered a massive breakdown and it was largely due to the job. Our family life it’s torn to shreds every year and it would be worth it if there was a little stress and a bit more love. Until then I am battling to get him to leave and I know a number of NHS workers who are at breaking point, that was prior to Covid

Depends on where you work - I've had appalling treatment from nurses but I've also seen nurses get awful treatment from patients. My mum was an NHS nurse and it was demanding but she liked it. She did surgery though, patients can't be abusive when they're asleep.

Paying them a reasonable wage might help retain staff. Fail to see how wanting the health service to be funded to be fit for purpose is scaremongering?

I am an anaesthetist and intensive care doctor, still in training and have been qualified for 10 years. Do you know how long it takes to train a paramedic, a nurse, a doctor etc and how much longer it takes to be able to specialise in an area and be an expert? Let alone how long it takes to build a new hospital and be able to staff it appropriately (the Nightingales were a folly and not a substitute).

It wouldn’t be a long term plan but an extremely long term plan. The best hope we have is social distancing, hand washing, masks and vaccination as well as research into covid and more effective treatments. That is the short and medium plan because it is what needs to happen to get past this pandemic.

@countbackfromten

I am an anaesthetist and intensive care doctor, still in training and have been qualified for 10 years. Do you know how long it takes to train a paramedic, a nurse, a doctor etc and how much longer it takes to be able to specialise in an area and be an expert? Let alone how long it takes to build a new hospital and be able to staff it appropriately (the Nightingales were a folly and not a substitute).

It wouldn’t be a long term plan but an extremely long term plan. The best hope we have is social distancing, hand washing, masks and vaccination as well as research into covid and more effective treatments. That is the short and medium plan because it is what needs to happen to get past this pandemic.

3 years for a nurse, 2 for an ODP, 5 for a doctor iirc. Obviously we wouldn't have experts coming out but we could even redeploy existing more experienced staff to those roles and have newer less experienced staff in some of the less intense roles, surely?

That is just the time it takes to be qualified! I have 3 years of training left and to be an intensive care consultant is at least 7 years after medical school!

These roles are not interchangeable. We drafted loads of staff into intensive care and supported them but it was an emergency stop gap. They do not have the training or the experience to look after such patients - and it would take years to get them to the same standard. All whilst meaning they couldn’t do their jobs and other patients who need their expertise would suffer.

This is the reality.

What we need is as many people to get vaccinated and possible and to stick to the rules for the time being! That is what will get us out of this.

@countbackfromten

That is just the time it takes to be qualified! I have 3 years of training left and to be an intensive care consultant is at least 7 years after medical school!

These roles are not interchangeable. We drafted loads of staff into intensive care and supported them but it was an emergency stop gap. They do not have the training or the experience to look after such patients - and it would take years to get them to the same standard. All whilst meaning they couldn’t do their jobs and other patients who need their expertise would suffer.

This is the reality.

What we need is as many people to get vaccinated and possible and to stick to the rules for the time being! That is what will get us out of this.

I understand that re consultants but I don't understand your point about existing staff. When intensive care jobs become available, if someone wants one and they haven't done it before, they have to start somewhere? So a nurse who is in say, orthopedic theatre who wished to work in intensive care would presumably be able to be trained? Why is that not feesible? I know its not a case of taking them out of one ward and sticking them on another and them instantly having the knowledge but I'm not sure why people can't move and be trained in a new role?

New hospitals are being built and there are more nurses this year. Unsure in doctors. I think I read somewhere there are more doctors but not sure. So investment has already been put in.
The vaccine will help us live with it. But it will also always be here. But once herd immunity takes hold (which I guess is years) , it will be a problem.

One problem with training is that the trainers are partly also the healthcare staff we need to get us through this winter. Of government planners expect this winter to be the worst it will get, it would be poor strategy to pull more senior staff into training through this winter than usual.

It takes time to train people, the roles aren’t interchangeable. We do have a new stream coming in as people finish medical school and nursing degrees etc but it then takes time for them to be skilled. These are incredibly complex jobs.

And that orthopaedic theatre nurse moving into intensive care means that patients needing operations have to wait longer. It would be counterintuitive. We need people in all of these roles doing the highly skilled jobs they are paid for.

Of course people move and change roles but it requires time and skilled staff to train them to do these roles.

Why is there so many admin staff who have plenty of time on their hands compared to frontline workers who are doing 5 people's jobs?
What admin staff? I know managers doing their own admin. The NHS admin staff I knew weren't replaced after they left.

Surely the takeaway is that the provision is inadequate and needs investing in. Whether this is a long long term plan or not it needs to be done. This is why many Asian countries did so well because they learned from epidemics past. (Eh Malaysia) I guarantee this won't be the last time the NHS faces overstretching or a pandemic.

It's not just about right now though, is it?What about the next flu season/mutation/virus/pandemic. Long term planning has to start somewhere and staffing is a clear issue with a (relatively) long term solution. Putting that off won't help.

OP, I agree - I'd love to see some indication of longer term thinking.

OP I agree with you. I said on another thread which was deleted that this was my biggest take away from covid. If our plan is to shut down our economy every time our health service runs out of beds then it would be much cheaper to fund and develop a system with a bit of spare capacity in it. The NHS runs out of beds most winters anyway.