To take chances based on a calculated risk?

[Pollymadewine]

From the start of the pandemic I’ve been convinced i will die if I catch Covid.

I’ve found it incredibly tough and I’ve missed out on a lot of things that have been allowed, like eating out, going for a coffee, hairdressers, all because I’ve been so frightened.

I spoke to my Dr and she tried to reassure me but even that didn’t really help me.

I found a Covid risk calculator created by Oxford University which gives you a risk based on your personal circumstances and collective data from the first peak of the pandemic.

It says my risk of death from Covid is 1 in 172,000

I know this is just a calculated figure and of course no one at all knows how they will be affected, but would this give you the courage to engage in “higher risk” activities?

I really want to go to the hair dressers, i want to get my nails done for Christmas and more than anything I want to take my son on the Santa train we have booked this weekend
(Santa train socially distanced with mask wearing)
DS only a baby so wouldn’t know if we didn’t attend.

I just can’t decide what to do and don’t know if it’s been irresponsible doing these things based on a calculator.

The whole of life is a calculated risk so you are not being unreasonable to take one.

Only you can decide your own risk tolerance though.

Given that you're more likely to die from being run over or cancer, I'd go get your nails done

What’s your health going to be like if you stay trapped in the house and don’t do anything. Living fully is a risk but it’s worth it. Wear a mask, wash your hands, sanitise, keep your distance and try to enjoy life.

I like this poem:
To live is to risk dying,
To hope is to risk despair,
To try is to risk failure.
But risks must be taken because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing.

I have a 99.998% chance of surviving.

That's a very low risk. And if you're wearing masks and cleaning your hands. Your chance of even catching covid is small.
I think you're fine to do those things.

I’ve been very careful throughout and I’m happy with that. It wasn’t just the risk of dying, but being ill for a few weeks and the risk of long term heart damage.

I still got it, via children from school and so all my efforts were in vain

But it’s been more awful than I’d expected, I’m on day 22 and walked round the block (10 mins) for the first time yesterday. I’m signed off work for another ten days. I’ve been so weak I really couldn’t do very much at all.

But the risk of certain activities is really low - outdoors stuff.
Can you get some nice takeaway food delivered? Meet a friend for a coffee outdoors?

I don’t know, but in your shoes I’d look at how many cases there are in your area and try and do some of the things that feel safer.

It seems to be all about ventilation, could you find a mobile hairdresser so you can keep a window open and not worry about people before you?

Where I live, many people are doing the same as you, and that’s fine if that’s what you’re comfortable with.

@ButterMeUpScotty

Wear a mask, wash your hands, sanitise, keep your distance and try to enjoy life.

But how can I distance from a hairdresser..

Presumably they’ll be wearing PPE and you’ll be wearing your mask. My hairdresser does that and it’s been fine.

Yanbu taking a calculated risk.

But, if you are going to spend the entire time worrying, then just don't do these things. They are not necessary. You will only inflict your misery on yourself if you get yourself all worked up at Christmas! And if you ARE the one in 172,000 who catches covid, then you will not forgive yourself in a hurry.

The Santa train will run next year. It doesn't matter how crap your hair and nails look if you are feeling happy and confident.

The Santa train is going to have primary school kids on it, i expect, and kids mix a lot at school. And preschoolers who attend nursery will mix. At the moment, rates of infection in primary kids aren't too bad so I don't think this is a particularly high risk personally, but I expect your hairdresser is a lower risk.

Once reasonable numbers or people are vaccinated your risk of catching covid may start to improve and you might feel better about going out and about. And there is a fairly good chance that by next Christmas, even if you haven't been vaccinated yourself, C-19 will have reduced to very manageable levels.

Personally I would rather go and get a haircut now than in January, once everyone has broken rules, driven to tier 3 to visit family, and been Christmas sale shopping. I reckon this is probably the best moment to do things.

OP I had a look at the calculator and it says it’s not intended for use at individual risk level so be aware of that if you are looking to use it for decisions (if this applies to the version you used):

PLEASE NOTE: This implementation of the QCovid risk calculator is NOT intended for use supporting or informing clinical decision-making. It is ONLY to be used for academic research, peer review and validation purposes, and it must NOT be used with data or information relating to any individual. For full terms and conditions please see the Academic Licence. For any other use cases, please [email protected] quoting reference 17939.

If you are that worried about risk, I'd think getting your hair and nails done would be pretty low down on your list of priorities

There have been plenty of studies done which show a strong correlation between early death and unjustified health anxiety. In other words, having a robust attitude towards health risks and not worryingly pointlessly actually has a protective effect and leads to longer life expectancy.

So your very own attitude towards risk from covid increases your own risk of death in itself. I'd get out there if I were you, because a less risk averse attitude is statistically best for your own chances of survival.