To think a trip to Australia at the end of April could be possible?

[Extrapepperoni]

One of my best friends is getting married at the end of April in Australia. She means the world to me and I really want to be there. DH and I always thought we would do a few weeks' holiday timed around their wedding with DD (4) and see family etc. Now it's a race against the vaccine clock. And even if we get the vaccine, who knows what the regulations will be - at the moment Australia are limiting numbers of entrants and Aussies only, with two week mandatory quarantine and flights are getting cancelled a fair bit I'm told.

AIBU to think I could still be there? And at what point do I make peace with not going? Do I book tickets etc on the hope it might happen or just resign myself (and my friend) to it not happening?

(I know how lucky I am that this is what is on my mind, I don't mean this post to be callous to those dealing with actual adversity.)

Thanks for reading!

@flowyglowy that's incorrect. Entry to Australia is closed except to residents or special circumstances. You can't just go there for a holiday.

I thought I heard Aus and NZ will not be permitting incoming flights until July 2021 at the earliest. We have plans to go in Jan 22 but we are not banking on it.

Two things seem clear to me (as an Aussie).

1. Our vaccine program is v unlikely to BEGIN until March. So that’s vulnerable groups first, etc. Also possibly 2 doses spaced apart. I don’t expect to be vaccinated until mid-year or beyond (and I’m asthmatic).

2. Consider that each State in Australia has had/is having v different Covid experiences. So it might matter where you are hoping to fly in/out. Travelling between States may not be straightforward. On the other hand, some States are less nervous, and desperate for the tourism to ramp up. You could get lucky, if you watch and plan carefully.

Also remember we have over 36,000 of our own citizens still trapped outside of Australia, most since last March, who still despair of getting back. There’s not much political will even to organise flights in for them (since hotel quarantine has been a cluster-fuck nightmare nationwide).

Although strangely we’re hosting some major sporting events that involve whole tennis & cricket teams + entourage + press between now and March 2020 .

If I were you, I probably would give up hope or book provisionally while accepting I’d lose significant $$ if cancellations were required. I have friends who have booked 7 times to exit Australia (for Europe) this year and lost out each time. That’s with C-19 death numbers under 100. They are now trying to buy tickets out around June- Sep 2021 and still without much hope.

Sorry I can’t be more positive! Wanted to give you the context here- surely your bestie can’t be very hopeful either? She’d have little reason to be?

There are people flying in, that’s true, but they are Aussie’s still trying to get home. Tickets are precious so no chance you would get one just for a jolly.

@Waxonwaxoff0 that's funny because I know ppl currently quarantining over there...they do not live there! They do not have special circumstances either

I live in Australia. No there is no chance if that happening in April, sorry OP.

Forget it. I am Australian trying to return from the U.K. commercial flights are almost impossible and the bump rate is so high due to passenger caps x

@flowyglowy not sure how that's possible. There are Australians on this thread saying they can barely travel between states let alone people from other countries coming in.

I’d say definitely not. It’s not just you getting vaccinated, it’s sufficient people in Australia being vaccinated that if an infected person gets through, they don’t start community transmission. I think I heard the vaccine is 90% effective with the hope being it will effect the remaining 10% by reducing symptoms (so no one dies / gets long term ill). I think that means some of the people entering Australia will have been vaccinated but will still be infected. If unvaccinated Australians get it it will be just as dangerous for them as it is for every other unvaccinated person.

I have family in NZ and we are just hoping next Christmas may be OK.

They tell me that certainly for NZ since nobody is dying of COVID and the vaccine is only needed so they can reopen their borders, they are going to start getting vaccines very late and the immunisation programme won’t start until March / April. I suspect Australia will be the same.

If you were travelling to another European country the odds would be far more favourable.

Australia has been ruthless at containing and quarantining the virus. At this stage they are dependent on vaccination within the country and of visitors before international travel can resume and that just won't be in place at an effective level by April.

@Waxonwaxoff0 they are in NZ

I've booked to go to Thailand second half of August, I'm hoping that will be ok?

I think I'll be vaccinated by then and am hoping I'll get some sort of certificate to prove it incase I need one for entry. I'm in the UK.

I wouldn't chance Australia in March though. You could always just try to book tickets last minute if things looked brighter?

Almost zero unfortunately. At least your friend should understand. I am hoping to go to France in May and i think that's 50/50 at best.

I think it's unlikely you'll be there.
Maybe it can be streamed to you?

There is basically zero chance these closed countries (Aus, NZ etc) will be open to non-citizens in April - we won't even have the young vaccinated yet and the virus will still be circulating.

Even citizens will be forced to quarantine on return to Aus/NZ - and that's if they can get a coveted quarantine slot. Sorry OP, I feel your frustration, I'm just hoping to make it home for Christmas 2021.

[quote flowyglowy]@Waxonwaxoff0 they are in NZ[/quote]
IIRC, essential services employment only for new visas - and some existing student/work visas where they were ordinarily resident in NZ (and all their possessions/life there) but found themselves on the wrong side of the border at lockdown?

[quote flowyglowy]@Waxonwaxoff0 they are in NZ[/quote]
That’s very different to anyone coming from the UK. They started to let kiwis in to certain states in Australia without quarantining at all, as at about a month ago. But anyone returning to NZ has to hotel quarantine for two weeks on return to NZ.

There’s currently 44 active cases in Australia so I guess they want to keep it low and that means reducing contact with many countries for quite some time.

@flowyglowy OK, that's different to travel from the UK then.

Is your friend considering postponing her wedding, OP? That is what a lot of people here are doing. It's either that or accepting that if you go ahead your wedding will be a very small one and people who have to travel any distance won't be able to attend. Have you asked her about it?

With very limited exceptions, the only people getting into New Zealand are citizens or permanent residents and they are in managed isolation for two weeks after they arrive. It's not voluntary and any escapees who evade the army are pursued by the police and charged with a criminal offence when they are caught.

The projections our Australian government are aiming for is late 2021. I'm in QLD and they slam our borders shut at the first sign of community transmission elsewhere.

Even if you could get permission & air tickets (unlikely as there's a low cap on arrival numbers) they'd be business class and you'd have to quarantine in a hotel, which costs around 3k for a couple. If there's an issue, they'll cancel your tickets.

No chance of it changing until you, & we, both have a vaccine.

I think April is too optimistic, sadly. DH and I were hoping to go the US at the end of June 2021 and honestly, I’m not even sure the borders will be open by then. I was feeling confident about that timeline earlier this year but now that we’re in December, six months doesn’t seem like a long time in covid terms.

Thank you all for being the voice of reason. I hadn't realised you could still carry the virus even if you've been vaccinated and that does pretty much put a nail in the coffin of this wishful thinking. Even if they let
us in (I'm a citizen but DH & DD aren't), we couldn't quarantine for two weeks (my daughter would lose the plot in a hotel room) plus getting the leave (HR tend to at anything over two weeks back to back, the cost of flying the three of us and quarantining only to get back on the plane straight after without seeing our family there or anything else. You are all right. It's not the best news but at least I can make my peace with it rather than hoping :-/