Rule breakers are NOT the reason we’re having another lockdown

[ProfessorInkling]

I don’t think that people who break the rules by eg meeting in a 7 instead of a 6, seeing long-term partners who live elsewhere, hugging their mum or not wearing a mask in the supermarket because while they may not be ‘medically exempt’ it’s still a struggle, are to blame for another lockdown.

Misinformation and misunderstanding however seem rife - the number of threads about people who are told to isolate after contact with a positive case and then not doing so because they get a negative test before the 14 days are up (a wasted test without symptoms), or not isolating for long enough, or isolating ‘except for’ supermarket trips, etc etc.. these are the actions that spread the virus, not making your own risk assessments and using common sense. AIBU?

Well, the levels are still going up and the rules are for everyone to follow and not to redefine bc you want to hug your mum, so clearly something’s not working adequately. The guidelines aren’t really that confusing but a lot of people seem to be searching for loopholes. Ffs just do what your government instructs you to do. Save some other poor bastard getting covid because you needed a pint wi yer mates.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but how do you know this?

Just to confirm I’m talking to people generally, not necessarily saying the OP is not following rules, searching for loopholes, meeting 7 pals etc. But many people seem to be having too many connections with others and virus is spreading quickly.

You are stating this is a fact, which is exactly what people should not be doing. It's your opinion, and you are adding to the misinformation and misunderstanding. Or are you a scientist with expertise in this field?

Rules breakers are a significant part of why we need to have another lockdown.

It's not about whether seeing 6 people instead of 7 or what types of shops or a theatre versus church.

Basically each time you are too close to someone there is a) a chance they have covid and b) a chance if they do you will catch it. Face covering reduce the chances of b) happening. All all the lockdown rules are about is reducing the number of interactions. And everytime someone breaks the rules it increases the number.

You’re brilliant at assessing the real reason behind the lockdown. Not.

It’s a mixture of all sorts of bad behaviour with regard to unnecessary contacts. The more contacts, the more risk of infection. If those contacts are weak on precautions it’s even more of a risk.

It’s that simple.

I think it’s a combination of things .

The virus has a mutation which is much more contagious.

People ignoring the rules

People naturally letting their guard down and getting complacent

I was speaking to a factory owner in Europe today and they had been doing their best to work and follow guidance but they have 600 people off either ill or isolating out of 2000.

You don’t need lockdown to bring a halt to things .

And if you are going to blame the government then blame all the other governments in Europe as the graphs look very very similar .

The fact that people at the moment are having lockdown parties and squeezing in late night shopping is evidence that the government is probably not to blame entirely for people’s flawed judgement .

I also agree op. The reason for the first lockdown and now this one has nothing to do with following or not following the rules. The virus spreads in exactly the same way as any virus, it is no different. The problem we have is that we have an ever increasing older population and a health service that has been chronically underfunded and mismanaged over decades ( under both conservative and labour governments ). It is now at the point that it can’t cope in a normal winter let alone now. It has taken this new virus to highlight to the general public just how bad the problems are with the nhs and that the only way to cope is to lockdown everyone. The issue may be relieved a bit by a vaccine but the likelihood is that the older population will be have to be vaccinated annually along with a flu vaccination and the rest of us will have to keep our fingers crossed that it works to keep numbers under control each year. Otherwise, we could well see winter lockdowns being an annual thing. Perhaps we should all put our efforts into holding our government to account and looking to them to properly fund, manage and over haul the nhs than blame each other for breaking the rules.

And I don’t think there is misinformation. Some people are too lazy or don’t care enough to check the info. They are determined to carry on as they want to .

The media also has been appalling .

I disagree OP. If you think nobody who has broke the rules has either caught the virus or passed it on then surely they must be protected by some form of magic

The most depressing thing about this shit show is the cumulative number of rule breakers who think one little exception is ok for them. Because they are so unique and special.

It does not spread the same way as any other virus at all . It is much more contagious and resiliant.

And no other country in Europe is prepared for a pandemic either . Italy has reputedly one of the best health services in Europe and they had to make choices about who had to live or die as well .

Spain abandoned people in care homes and France are massively struggling .

Name me another virus that can survive best in freezing conditions and survive on metal for 28 days ?

I battle with rules like “You can see 5 other people in a pub but not your mum in your own home” for a couple of reasons. I obey, but it wouldn’t take much to sway me. My (private, usually) view is that infections since September have been driven by schools and unis, and that it won’t make a jot of difference if my 3yo has her mate round.

Whilst misinformation is a problem, people flouting the rules and mixing with whoever they want to is definitely fuelling the spread.

Nothing is spreading it more than schools but nobody wants to hear that!

There are a number of mums from our school who blatantly didn’t give a crap about the rules. One announced she had been in contact with a Covid positive person but declared she didn’t need to isolate for 14 days because she had lied to get a test and it was negative. She was at day 6. She then went back to work, did the school drop off, her shopping etc. Didn’t give one single thought for anyone else, she is not a one off. It’s my honest belief that we love to make scapegoats and rarely expect people to take responsibility. It just seems to be the way it is.

The government is largely to blame for where we are, though individual actions have contributed.

Original restrictions a week late.
Not setting an example in the House of Commons after Nadine Dorries had the virus.
Not setting a further example by sacking Dominic Cummings or Robert Jenrick.
No decent Test and Trace system, run by someone whose major business on their CV was one of the largest data breaches of any internet service provider.
Having too many exemptions.
No real enforcement.
Eat out to Help Out, so you stay put in fast food places instead of going outside or home.
Not following SAGE advice on 21 September.
Having 1.2m students move around the country, instead of online learning, when they are the group with the highest cases.

YABU. The whole “use common sense and make your own risk assessments” is laughable - as it seems so many people don’t have any common sense and ate incapable of making a risk assessment. You are clearly one of them.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

I disagree OP. If you think nobody who has broke the rules has either caught the virus or passed it on then surely they must be protected by some form of magic

Even people who have made minor misdemeanours under these rules, like hugging their sister who lives in another household or something, are still following the rules on the whole. And they are still more likely to catch Covid from their workplace or someone in their home going to work or school.

The lockdown we had initially did work as the infections and deaths went down, so yes I think less social interaction between groups and individuals do work. I think people say they don’t understand the rules to justify breaking them. The rules aren’t really that difficult to understand. They’re everywhere - if people don’t know them, all they need to do is google them, and they’re pretty clear.

@Unsure33

It does not spread the same way as any other virus at all . It is much more contagious and resiliant.

And no other country in Europe is prepared for a pandemic either . Italy has reputedly one of the best health services in Europe and they had to make choices about who had to live or die as well .

Spain abandoned people in care homes and France are massively struggling .

It really does behave the same. It is passed on by person to person transmission through breathing in droplets from the air or touching the virus and it entering your body through your nose and mouth. Hence why we have hands, face, space mantra. The flu and your standard cold virus transmits in exactly the same way. How contagious it is remains to be seen. The main problem is that it can be deadly to those who are older 60+ Much the same as flu which is why flu jabs are routinely offered to older people. Flu still kills younger people too just like corona but not in any significant numbers so routine flu jabs are only really given to children. Your right in that the rest of Europe haven’t faired much better in dealing with the virus either and their populations are also rebelling against lockdowns. The reason we have a higher death rate though is still the same and goes back to the fact our health service has not been fit for purpose for many years and it’s taken this to show how bad it is.

Rule breakers may be a contributory cause but probably not the main one. The virus didn't ever go away, we slowed down the spread during lockdown and since being back in circulation it's ramped up. It seems to have really ramped up since schools went back - and likelihood is it's secondary schools (looking at data on the ONS). It would be simple,/satisfying in a way if we could blame / point the finger at rule breakers but reality is small pockets of people rule breaking isn't going to make that much difference to covid spread - though they will wind up the rule followers who in turn would like to blame them for being the cause! The mass testing of whole areas / quickly approach is probably pretty significant - could detect out breaks pretty quickly in areas and take lockdown action accordingly. Part of the frustration some have with lockdown is that there could be next to no cases in their area or it could be rife. That could be a useful approach as lockdown is a pretty blunt instrument (although a necessary one at times too, like now)

OP this is the same logic people use to justify speeding or any other form of law breaking.

All it needs is that 7th person to be the one with CV and thats 6 more who get infected and with R = 2 thats 12 more and so on.

CV appears to be far more contagious than other respiratory viruses.

Well they certainly go some way towards it.