The GOP's Demographic Doom

[Wishingstarr]

The Millennials and Zoomers (those born in 1981 or later) are the two biggest and most diverse generations in US history and will come to dominate American politics by the end of the 2020s. Do you agree that the Republicans are doomed?

YANBU = YES
YABU = NO the Republicans will adapt and attract younger voters

www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/millennials-and-gen-z-will-soon-dominate-us-elections/616818/

They already switched to radicalising young angry males to make up the shortfall. There is a growing problem with teenage and early twenties males joining the alt-right and some of the views these men hold are shocking.

They want legalisation of rape and paedophilia, and think women are sub-human.

I only see things getting worse rather than better. Look into incels, MGTOW, the redpill, the blackpill etc.

I wish the GOP support would fall but I really don't see it happening right now without some serious effort to tackle the growing problem of radicalisation in the alt-right.

The thing is demographically those angry young males they focus on are white and they are becoming a smaller and smaller % of the voting population. Also by swinging to the far-right they have alienated a demographic that the winning party always needs: Suburban Women. Let alone all other women, Black, Latina/o, Asian and Native American voters. It's a losing proposition.
www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/opinion/gender-gap-2020-election.html

Republicans are more enthusiastic about a public health care option and a universal basic income than you may expect. The younger generations in particular are really struggling to make ends meet since Covid.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-issues-that-divide-people-within-each-party/

They are picking up women too though, just using a different pipeline than the typical male rage one.

Currently they are using the "health and wellness" craze to push women towards the alt right too. It starts with MLM, crystals and essential oils, and moves toward anti - vax and anti mask. From there it goes into the 5G / microchip conspiracy and Bill Gates being the devil, which turns into Qanon.

People start with the more sane end of things - just wanting them and their children to be healthy but the way social media and YouTube algorithms work mean more and more crazy stuff starts showing up in echo chambers and radicalising people.

It's the same methods that were used in gamergate, just refined towards a new audience. And they will keep doing this every time they need new support.

they focus on are white and they are becoming a smaller and smaller % of the voting population

It won’t matter. Hispanics probably have even more conservative views than white voters and they have been steadily moving GOP for years (like Cubans have always been). The share of the black population has remained steady for quite some time.

I think less racial demographics and more a formal transition of support. The Democrats will be the party of the white professional class (with support from the black population, particularly female) and the Republicans will be the party of the working class and small business owners, both less bound by skin color.

The Democrats used to be the party for the working class and union members, but they’ve pretty much abandoned any pretense of support for this demographic and the GOP has swooped in. It will have an effect much like Nixon’s Southern strategy (the South apparently was a Democratic stronghold until Nixon ...)

Not sure how many Americans you know but I don't know anyone of any age IRL that believes the Qanon stuff. Not saying they are not out there ... most people are much more concerned about actually paying their bills, making sure their children don't fall behind in their education and getting over this pandemic. I think 2020 has given a lot of people a cold shower of reality.

Unless the Democrats move over to the centre ground they won't have a chance. Trump has a very good chance of winning this election and that's during a pandemic which he has handled badly and the entire media is against him. Socialism will never become more popular than Capitalism in America so Democrats have no chance. Harris will probably replace Biden and she isn't running now because she has no chance of beating Trump. The republicans will easily be able to find someone to beat Harris in the next election.

The Cubans that fled to Miami were the whites fleeing the revolution. They have always been right wing. Hispanics from other nations are predominantly Democratic. Like most coming from historically Catholic nations they are generally more supportive of socially conservative policies that support the family. However Catholics are majority Democrat on most issues except abortion and are breaking in favor of Biden in this election. Also, Hispanic countries have political parties that are much more left wing than the Democrats who are centerists in comparison, so most Hispanics who are immigrants don't see Dems are remotely radical. Those I know anyway.

Those with a college degree are more likely to vote Democrat and Trump won by appealing to the white working class without a college degree that's true. But he is not appealing to women across the spectrum and they vote in greater numbers than men. Trump has been panicking because Suburban Women are abandoning the GOP because he's made his message so masculine and his public treatment of women has been so appalling.

Many Americans are not fans of either party. Over 40% didn't vote in 2016 and most voters don't like the policies or politicians they are offered that much. A lot of voters sent a message with Trump - the middle finger.

It's the Republicans that have ceded the centre to the Democrats. Trump has been feeding far-right rhetoric to his supporters for his entire Presidency. Groups like the Proud Boys that would've been considered beyond the pale of normal politics and were in the shadows pre 2016 have been able to march around in the light, horrifying the nation. Most Americans do not identify with right wing extremism.

For me the biggest worry is what Democrats have been saying is in the pipeline if they win.
End the electoral college, drop the voting age to 16, enable illegal immigrants and prisoners to vote. This will make it all but impossible for almost half the country to have a meaningful vote and effectively and disenfranchise them.
If you are on the left, so what you say. Good riddance, but if Trump won and set about legislatively making it impossible for Democrats to ever win again do you think they would take it quietly or rise violently up against him?
I have a horrible feeling were are going to see a civil war, collapse of the dollar and American withdrawal from the international scene.

However Catholics are majority Democrat on most issues except abortion and are breaking in favor of Biden in this election. Also, Hispanic countries have political parties that are much more left wing than the Democrats who are centerists in comparison

Biden will get the majority but the GOP are increasing their share of the Hispanic vote. I think those who are small business owners will find a lot more to like in the GOP.

Also it would be nice for the parties to split on issues and not along lines of race. I would look forward to this trend, hope it shows up in the next few elections.

Interesting AP report on huge voter turn out in Texas, they are expecting 3 million more voters than 2016 which is more than than population of neighboring New Mexico.

apnews.com/article/donald-trump-virus-outbreak-elections-voting-2020-voting-d5380fd487e2f2a91985146b7e8a73ff?traffic_source=Connatix

I don't think ending the Electoral College or dropping the voting age will happen. I could see the tightening up of voting suppression and making sure there are many more places to vote. The enormous lines in much of the nation show clearly the lack of polling stations, which is exposing more people to larger crowds than necessary. If the Democrats sweep in it will show that the current system does work for both parties as long as they motivate their base. It just wish we had more than two parties who are both beholden to big corporations making it very difficult for anyone without massive financial support to run for congress.

Wishingstarr said.....

"I don't think ending the Electoral College or dropping the voting age will happen. "

They've said it multiple times, without it HRC beaten Trump and Gore would have beaten GWB

You'd have to go back to before AOC was even born to find a time when the Republicans won the popular.

I hope you are right but I fear you are wrong. If it happens I can see civil war and at massive cost to the rest of us.🤔

I would hope they’re doomed, but as someone else has said, they’ve targeted angry, racist voters, and there seem to be an endless supply of them in the US.

I’m desperately hoping the Democrats can get a clean sweep at the election so they can pack the Supreme Court, scrap the Electoral College system and redress the inherent advantage to the GOP that has existed in the States since it’s inception. It cannot be right that 3 million more people vote for the candidate that lost.

The Lincoln Project trying to reach men

The Latino/a vote will increase 15% from 2016 in this election. In 2024 the Latino/a share of voters will be larger than the white vote in Texas.

Another one focusing on Latino/a voters in Texas.

Democrats will soon be the demographic majority and it won't be necessary to change the Electoral College. Trump represents the line in the sand where white voters could force their will on the rest of the nation. As the white majority shrinks across the nation (whites are already about 40% of the population in California) the USA will have the adapt.

Trump is speaking for all those whites with status anxiety, they see the population getting browner and that has coincided with huge economic disparity and instead of blaming the corporations and Wall St they are blaming immigrants. Asians are also a significant section of the population (Vietnamese, Korean, Chinese, Indian) and Kamala Harris represents them too, her mom us from India.

The anger comes from economic instability. The 2008 collapse badly affected millions who never got back to where they were, while the USA bailed out the banks. Also previously the manufacturing base was moved offshore. Democrats did this just as much as Republicans. NAFTA was signed by Bill Clinton. White working class men were especially affected, just as they were in the UK. White working class women moved into white collar and pink collar jobs but a lot of white men without a college degree found their job prospects and future looking less stable and prosperous than their father & grandfather. Especially in the Rust Belt and rural areas (Trump did well in both in 2016).

As the white majority shrinks across the nation (whites are already about 40% of the population in California) the USA will have the adapt

No indication that Hispanics will vote with the same ‘party discipline’ as blacks. He won 30% of their votes last election, I expect much the same this time around. Certainly not like the 90%+ the Dems expect from the black population.

Trump is speaking for all those whites with status anxiety, they see the population getting browner and that has coincided with huge economic disparity and instead of blaming the corporations and Wall St they are blaming immigrants

It was corporate GOP/Wall Street that wanted cheap labor in the first place. It was Dems that were supposed to protect the working class and they failed miserably.

Asians are also a significant section of the population (Vietnamese, Korean, Chinese, Indian) and Kamala Harris represents them too, her mom us from India

Maybe but they tend to stick to certain States (Hawaii, California) so do not have the kind of political clout that blacks and Hispanics do ...

The anger comes from economic instability. The 2008 collapse badly affected millions who never got back to where they were, while the USA bailed out the banks

Things could have been far worse if they let the banks fail. It’s hard to price either way (but it does stick in the caw, I will say that)

Also previously the manufacturing base was moved offshore. Democrats did this just as much as Republicans. NAFTA was signed by Bill Clinton

Yep.

White working class men were especially affected, just as they were in the UK

Black men were hurt by this too, don’t forget.

Especially in the Rust Belt and rural areas (Trump did well in both in 2016)

People who don’t understand these long-term trends this will never understand why Trump is so popular in the Midwest. But honestly, I find a lot of lefties strangely incurious about this and prefer to denigrate this voting bloc as ‘stupid’ or ‘voting against their interests’ (fact: Dems don’t give a shit about them either)