Can you easily absorb a 20% rise in your grocery bill?

[AbsentmindedWoman]

I am worried about this, predicted to come early next year. I moved abroad last year but have people I love in the UK, some are budgeting very tightly already, and there's nothing I can suggest when they are worried.

I find it really troubling. Surely this is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for quite a few people who are coping with limited money? It could mean the difference between being able to get by and being stuck?

Would a 20% increase in food prices be difficult for you, or just a pain in the arse?

Is there any way a price hike can be avoided?

I know it's easy for me to say @kowari but try not to get to anxious.
A relative of mine had anorexia in her teens. I don't want to go into details as it's a public forum but the family got to the bottom of what caused it.
Took a good few years for my relative to get better & I understand the need to stay in control to feel safe & how controlling food intake paradoxically'helps' & also the need to feel safe but also punish yourself as subconsciously the feelings of self disgust/blame/shame etc.

My relative has been well now for over 20 years but still does get triggers so she's taken up things to still her mind & are very self absorbing.
Quilting, cross stitch, yoga & PlayStation,

Anyway let's hope fingers crossed things won't be as bad as we've envisioned. Worry makes everything feel/look worse.

Xenia is right about drinking more water. You'd be amazed at how many of us are dehydrated & don't know it.

@TracyBeakerSoYeah I was anorexic in my teens, then a healthy weight for years before relapsing in my mid thirties.

I think this will make things more difficult for mothers with a history of eating disorders. It is seen as a good thing to look after your children first, to skip meals so your children can eat. I am very good at budgeting, very good at making cuts. If I have to I will eat porridge made with water to save the milk for my child (but also saving calories). There is conflict there with staying well.

I can, but the issue is how many will struggle or do without as others have noted.

To answer the original question, a trade deal with the EU will avoid most of the increase, though I am sure this and the pandemic will be used by some retailers and producers to increase some prices.

Look at this before more criticism of those on benefits. Latest report by the office of fiscal studies. The last question will be of more interest and more relevance.

So b4 anyone says people should cut down and people have lost the art of cooking or people on benefits can't handle their money which has been on many threads besides MN perhaps people should realise that welfare benefits is not sufficient for food security.

@Sostenueto

Thought I would put this on for everyone's perusal

The Operation Yellowhammer document acknowledges that “Low income group will be disproportionately affected by any prices rises in food and fuel”. At the same time, the Department for Food, Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) provided a dismaying response to a parliamentary question on legal duties with regards securing food supply in an emergency. Defra’s official statement says (with direct quotes indicated and full text available here):

“Defra is not responsible for the supply of food and drink to the population in an emergency.”
“Local authorities do not have a general duty to provide food but have duties to provide food to particular groups in particular circumstances, including schools and care settings.”
“The expertise, capability and levers to plan for and respond to food supply disruption lie within the industry,” and “The food industry is experienced in dealing with scenarios that can affect food supply.”
Food for schools (Department for Education), hospitals and care settings (Department of Health and Social Care) and prisons (Ministry of Justice) “is led” by different government departments and Defra provides “advice and support”.
And there is a welfare benefits safety net.
Pause a moment to take on board the implications of this official government position, in light of the Yellowhammer contingency planning document released this week, highlighting the ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ of a no-deal Brexit, including shortages of fresh food over a period of three months or more, and the likelihood of a significant rise in food prices. Here are the worrying conclusions that we draw from the collision of these two official documents and our experience over the past year:

In a food emergency, our Government does not feel a duty to:
step in and secure food supplies, neither for the general population, nor for people most vulnerable to food price rises and shortages of fresh food.
assess the scale of need, nor to publish data openly to help with resilience planning and resource allocation.
allocate adequate resources to address the crisis.
Our Government expects the commercial food industry to be willing and able to ensure that everyone gets the food they need, including those with too little money and those who have difficulty accessing the shops.
If you receive meals in a care home, hospital, prison or school, your food supply might be secure, but this is not guaranteed; and for children, the school holidays are not covered (except potentially in those areas where there is a scheme to address holiday hunger).
Welfare benefits already fall short of providing for household food security, are not calculated to meet the cost of living (including not taking into account food price rises), and would be unlikely to rise to meet the higher food prices likely in a national food crisis.
Other European countries are reportedly considering declaring no-deal Brexit a ‘natural disaster’ in order to trigger emergency funds to help out businesses and vulnerable people. No such luck in the UK. Despite some passing references over the past nine months to our Government having considered making available a hardship fund to address vulnerability, there is no indication that any money has been allocated beyond ‘business as usual’ welfare benefits, nor in any case have suitable methods of disbursement been agreed that would reliably reach those most in need.

Thanks for this, it's quite scary that they feel it isn't their problem. Luckily, supermarkets did seem to step up last time but it isn't just down to them. Looks like the government is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best ignoring the problem and hoping it won't be a worst case scenario. They don't seem to want to govern at the moment and don't do planning for the future.

I'm worried about people who are living on the edge financially now, this will be enough to push them over. For the rest of us, a trip to Tesco is going to be a fun experience if it's empty again.

Let alone facing any rise in food costs.

My DD would be using foodbanks if it were not for my help in other areas like sending Dgd money to help at uni and buying her food etc.

alexthehalliweencat yr welcome glad someone read it!

Food has gone up in price so much over the last few years. I'm pretty sure it's more expensive since lockdown started in March too. If it goes up any more, those who are struggling the most are going to find it the hardest. The cheaper items were hard to find in lockdown too, the basic and any supermarket own brand versions disappeared first. Sometimes the only things left were the more expensive versions.

I'm worried about January with the food security issue.

Sostenueto You're welcome . I'd like to be optimistic but I'm not sure. Three months of disruption is more than I imagined it would be, but this year has been so crazy and I wouldn't like to call it. I thought we'd handle the second wave better than we have, but it feels like March again.

It's the continual lying by the Government that makes me so angry. Boris on tv at a hospital kitchen swearing blind that no child will go hungry this winter. They have been going hungry for years!

Alex yes food has gone up since March and as first November vat is being put back on on facemasks and gloves too which the cost will be passed on to Joe public.

@Sostenueto

It's the continual lying by the Government that makes me so angry. Boris on tv at a hospital kitchen swearing blind that no child will go hungry this winter. They have been going hungry for years!

Absolutely this & then saying the local councils will sort it out 😂😂😂 Maybe they could if their funding from central government hadn't been slashed & this ridiculous rule of having to spend each departments budget in full otherwise you'll get less funding next year.

Do any of these policitians live in the real world? (Though there are good MPs out there)

Well DH has lost his job in hospitality and it's slim pickings for a new one. If he doesn't find something soon then no we won't be able to cope with a 20% increase in food prices.

Sorry to hear that little sandwich ☹️

Me too littlesandwich

Sorry to hear that littlesandwich.

I forgot about the VAT break on PPE, it's bad when people will still need it for the next year or so.

Rent/housing is so much more expensive now too, that has a knock on effect on affording food. Everything has gone up so much.