To ask what the point is of lockdown

[Whenismumhome]

We’ve had one lockdown. Why do we need to do it again?

So we have a few restrictions, those restrictions need to be lifted and then the cases rise again.

Seriously, why even bother?

My post is not a rhetorical question btw i genuinely wonder if lockdown worked but what choice did we have?

@Owlypants

The last lockdown didn't really work because everyone took up cycling and jogging,hardly anyone actually stayed home and followed the rules.

The last lockdown did work as the rates of infection decreased dramatically. People were were not told to just stay in, they were allowed to cycle and jog. These people did not cause infection rates to rise. It only started to rise when things opened up more and people started mixing.

I mean does anyone remember all those "should I report my neighbour for having her mum round?" threads? Some people can't get enough of the whole thing.

We're expecting to be told we are closing senior schools forthwith and starting a 10pm curfew. Govt currently in talks with regional governors (Italy)
Our local hospital has already been redesignated as Covid only (again)

It won't be like last time because I think everyone is more prepared. Or should be. But yes, it's all a bit shit after a normal summer. Lockdown worked though. Until our regions opened up we'd had a grand total of 11 cases in my town. 6 of them died though. That's some percentage of what can happen if people aren't protected by lockdown.

@borntohula

I mean does anyone remember all those "should I report my neighbour for having her mum round?" threads? Some people can't get enough of the whole thing.

Yes. And for every one of those there were about 10 (and still are) I'm not going to comply/leave my details/wear a mask.

@TheSeedsOfADream well, it's now mandatory to leave your details and wear a mask so they have no choice, I don't blame them for wanting some control over their own lives.

Yeah, it's mostly about keeping things under some degree of control for NHS, but tbh if bars, restaurants, hairdressers etc still open I don't see how anything's going to change. Obviously I want them to be able to be open because the businesses need the money, but then the gov is not prepared or not able to financially support business owners so they can afford to shut for a while.

Yes, ecause it’s well known that wearing a mask and leaving your details (as you always have if you book a restaurant table, by the way) take away all control over your life and you become a government automaton...

If the point of the circuit breaker is to stop the nhs being overwhelmed why not just reopen the nightingale hospitals that we put on standby？
The only positive thing I can see would be if they used that time to sort out a better trace and track system.
The economy will suffer even more, not to mention all the other health issues if normal services are closed down. It's all such a mess.

[quote borntohula]@TheSeedsOfADream well, it's now mandatory to leave your details and wear a mask so they have no choice, I don't blame them for wanting some control over their own lives.[/quote]
Except look through the Coronavirus section and people are still saying they'll lie.
I have total control of my life. I just consider myself part of society. It would never have crossed my mind not to leave my details- first and foremost because I want to be bloody traced if I've been sitting next to somebody.

Do people not understand that in a ‘normal‘ winter large swathes of the nhs can barely cope? I know the answer seems simple, nightingale hospitals, but there isn’t enough people to staff them . In the 1st wave they were the ‘show pony’. Luckily never needed. People have been allowed the extra freedoms because we have those extra beds, I only hope in those few summer months breather they have managed to find enough staff to run them because I think we’re going to need them this time.

@clarepetal

If the point of the circuit breaker is to stop the nhs being overwhelmed why not just reopen the nightingale hospitals that we put on standby？ The only positive thing I can see would be if they used that time to sort out a better trace and track system. The economy will suffer even more, not to mention all the other health issues if normal services are closed down. It's all such a mess.

Because like in March, there's nobody to staff them.

Meanwhile in China the general public are being given a vaccine. It hasn't passed the final stage but that doesn't seem to concern them

As I understand it ... ish... it's all about keeping society operating properly.

So without restrictions, the virus spreads exponentially, 20% of everyone who contracts it needs hospital treatment. That many people of needing to access hospital is no where near what the NHS can cope with.

Also that many Police, NHS staff, teachers, food delivery distributors, Prison Warders, Care assistants, Childrens home workers and any other key workers, not being able to work through illness means the infrastructure of society starts to crumble.

Also we can not, as a civilised society, countenance, dying people being refused treatment or difficult decisions regarding the elderly/disabled having to be made as if we are at war.

There IS no happy path. Somehow we have to keep the impact down to a level we can cope with, especially to enable the NHS to continue to function whilst not decimating the basic economy. It is a very fine line. The Government has to choose between several very unpalatable options based on scientific advice about an unprecedented and unpredictable situation. The least we can do is follow the law. That will at least reduce the uncertainty. Anything else will result in chaos, anarchy and many thousands will die, and not just from COVID.

Well I can't speak for the other 40k+ families, but lock down didn't work for ours.....we still lost mum.

I really am gobsmacked that so many people find this so hard to understand.

Death toll in first wave was forecast to be 200-500k with no action. Gov locked down later than they should have and it was 50k. Earlier lockdown would’ve reduced it much further.

HTH.

Circuit breaker only slows rates by about 4 weeks . Doesn’t stop it
We can’t continue like this without destroying everything.
There will be nothing left
It was thought mortality rates would be 3%
Now it’s more like 0.03%
Lots of talk about icus being at 85 % capacity - but a quick look on ons will show that that is normal fior October

@trappedsincesundaymorn

Well I can't speak for the other 40k+ families, but lock down didn't work for ours.....we still lost mum.

It's to kick the can down the road and hope that if we do that enough eventually it will come to rest at a bus stop where the Easter bunny hops off the bus and spreads covid-blasting meds/vaccine or the can (covid) starts to deteriorate as a virus.

Or it could be to stop us thinking about Brexit

@MiniMaxi

I really am gobsmacked that so many people find this so hard to understand.

Death toll in first wave was forecast to be 200-500k with no action. Gov locked down later than they should have and it was 50k. Earlier lockdown would’ve reduced it much further.

HTH.

There was a very interesting (and shocking) extrapolation from one of the big epidemiologists (think it was referenced on one of the Numbers/Graphs threads) about how if Italy had locked down a week later there would have been X deaths while if the UK had locked down a week earlier Y deaths. The differences in the numbers were massive. Tens and tens of thousands in one direction and the other. For a week.

@TheSeedsOfADream it’s amazing isn’t it (not in a good way).

Also for people saying “lockdown didn’t work why did we bother / why should we do that again” - the point of the UK’s lockdown was not to eliminate Covid, it was to reduce incidence to the point the NHS could cope. Covid was always going to re-emerge.

The only way to eliminate Covid is immediate and severe lockdown with subsequent closed borders and no free movement, a la NZ.

@cardibach

Yes, ecause it’s well known that wearing a mask and leaving your details (as you always have if you book a restaurant table, by the way) take away all control over your life and you become a government automaton...

It it makes you feel better to pretend that anyone with a different opinion is a nutcase conspiracy theorist... 🙄

Do you have no common sense op? I’m in Liverpool, and the hospitals are becoming overwhelmed to the point where discussions are taking place to stop cancer treatment and surgery to deal with COVID. This is why we have gone back into lockdown. I expect even tighter restrictions over the half term, especially after the city mayors brother passed away due to covid last night.

I don't really understand. Lots of people saying hospitals in tier 1 areas are already full, yet the statistics show hospital inpatients with covid is a fraction of the peak in April. Well, someone is lying aren't they. Liverpool ICUs saying they were close to capacity a week or 2 ago, then nothing mentioned again. Are they or aren't they? Then reports on here that that meant 5 out of 8 ITU beds were taken - I mean that's hardly news is it!

And no 20% of cases DO NOT need hospital treatment - perhaps less than 20% even have symptoms, the true % needing hospital treatment is much lower than that - perhaps it is 20% of over 70s if that.