To ask what will happen to the housing market in two years?

[elmouno]

I want to move in a couple of years to a larger house with a bigger garden, with more space for kids and a veg patch. We can't move now because we are locked in to our mortgage for the next couple years and because we changed jobs, it means we will have to wait. Our jobs are WFH permanently and we have no attachment to our location.

I'm wondering, will it be too late to move somewhere remote by then? Will all areas of housing be equal? So it won't matter if you live in greater London or an unpopulated area up north?

I'm mostly just curious about other people's opinions.

For AIBU purpose

YABU: House location will always be priced as it is now.
YANBU: Location won't matter anymore and all flats, semi detached, and detached will eventually cost the same in accordance to their size within the next few years.

Personally I understand many London corporate city folks (fed up of the big smoke) are contemplating vulture predatory potential opportunities given both Covid and inevitable hard WTO no trade deals Brexit. Many are retaining London real estate assets for short term rental and long term asset valuation appreciation but looking to purchase good (under valued) country bolt holes etc. Not necessarily the high net worths adding to property portfolio or additional Covid country safe houses etc.

If there isn't any push, then I think the house prices "up north" will start to match the ones around the M25.

Given the coming recession, where is all the money going to come from to drive most of the country's properly prices up? If there is such a significant exodus, London property prices would fall. Foreign investors wouldn't plug the whole gap.

I live in a desirable village in a northern national park, and genuinely cannot see this being an attractive place for someone who is used to central London. It's lovely (I love it, anyway!), but it has none of the things that people living in London are used to. No uber, limited take away delivery options (my village is lucky that we do have some that deliver), limited restaurant options, limited transport / entertainment options for teen children, a one-screen cinema within 20mins but if you want more choice it's a reasonable drive, theatre or art exhibitions are in the nearest city - an hour away etc... WFH or not, those things are still important to many people, which is why cities are popular. And that's without going into the weather etc. - I'm not sure the average London banker is ready to deal with actually living somewhere like the Scottish Highlands, either in summer (midges) or winter.

Londoners may have an idealised view of what life in "the country" is like, but I doubt it will live up to their Lord of the manor fantasies tbh.

I think it is easy to see specific stereotype London property owners like footloose international investors - but this is only a small segment. The vast majority of people living in London have actual lives deeply woven into their communities and societies that they value - family, friends, schools, hobbies, entertainment etc. I doubt many social 20-35 year olds without a partner and children would move to a remote location or families with children at schools would consider disrupting their education and social life. There may be some families with young children who can consider this option.

@Sssloou

I think it is easy to see specific stereotype London property owners like footloose international investors - but this is only a small segment. The vast majority of people living in London have actual lives deeply woven into their communities and societies that they value - family, friends, schools, hobbies, entertainment etc. I doubt many social 20-35 year olds without a partner and children would move to a remote location or families with children at schools would consider disrupting their education and social life. There may be some families with young children who can consider this option.

I agree. And even those families with young children may reconsider once their children hit teenage years.

Also - even in rural areas, those bits that are attractive, have good transport links, and amenities not too far away are usually already pricy for the area (either at or more likely above the national average for house prices). The idea that there are loads of undervalued remote country properties that have all the things people usually find desirable in a home is a bit of a fantasy. There are cheap villages, yes, but those aren't the kind of places that people with money will be looking to live in!

I don't think those in desirable rural spots need to be overtly concerned that hoards of pesky loaded cosmopolitan London city types are coming en masse to upset the status quo and push locals out by adding magical inflated values to their properties and then snapping them up to knock them down to build country mega mansions etc.

Places like parts of Cotswolds within London driving commuting distance etc have long been a much trodden path for second weekend homes for decades. I understand Rutland that smallest of English rural counties have proved popular with empty nester semi retired city folk wanting the relaxed slower pace life with less stress and nonpollution etc. Devon, Cornwall and Jurassic coast have long been keenly priced as second home territory so no bargains there for as long as I can recall. I think the temporary private Airbnb extended sunny weekend breaks and corporate events for team bonding (pre Covid and recession of course) doing country pursuits like game fishing, hunting, shooting and polo etc have given many a high flying City corporate type a false impression of daily life as in reality driving the Range Rover in wet and muddy hilly roads in the thick of a winter storm is not remotely appealing. Having your own island in the Scottish Highlands and Islands is great but I think it's realistically more Hollywood than real world. I love a fine malt and tweed etc but that and all the fine local seafood and agricultural produce will not mean many of us London City types are flying over to do aerial surveys anytime soon if ever!

Exactly - the areas with the qualities that are desirable are already reasonably pricy. The Cotswolds is neither remote nor cheap, and that's the kind of place which people are likely to leave for.

The OP appears to be under the impression that remote, cheap villages in the north are going to attract sufficient incomers that prices will increase to Greater London levels. It's not going to happen.

I think cities will probably have the lose a lot of value as they are so high now. But they still have the advantages of proximity to lots of cultural amenities and the high density that is great for a lot of people, especially young people. There will also still be lots of jobs where you won't be able to work from home and progress as well - creative collaboration still tends to do better in person, so there will be some housing pressure from employment too - just not as much.

I suspect it's suburbia/commuter towns that will eventually become the areas no one wants as you don't have the culture nor the prettiness. But while they have good schools they're going to attract families.

It'll take longer than a couple of years to know how CV will affect us long term. A no deal Brexit will probably have more impact in that time frame.

If all the London folk want to move and wfh out in the remote places in the middle of nowhere won’t the Wi-fi and phone signals need improving

I live in a desirable village in a northern national park, and genuinely cannot see this being an attractive place for someone who is used to central London. It's lovely (I love it, anyway!), but it has none of the things that people living in London are used to. No uber, limited take away delivery options (my village is lucky that we do have some that deliver), limited restaurant options, limited transport / entertainment options for teen children, a one-screen cinema within 20mins but if you want more choice it's a reasonable drive, theatre or art exhibitions are in the nearest city - an hour away etc... WFH or not, those things are still important to many people, which is why cities are popular.

This is my answer. I'm from a leafy valley in West Yorkshire (think Last of the Summer Wine) and now live in the SW. I moved away after uni because it is boring growing up in a leafy valley, in a village with 2 shops and a pizza place. People move there because "it's a nice place to raise kids". Yes, until they're about 8. If you're a childfree couple or have teenagers you spend your life in the car.

Even with younger kids - what range of extracurriculur clubs or sports will they have access to? Probably not as wide a choice as in a city, and they will need to be driven a fair way to get to their activities. Many people have an ideal view of country living which bears no relation to the reality.

We're a childfree couple who love wildlife and outdoor sports, so living in the hills suits us perfectly. But even we've had to accept compromises.

I suspect the dimension you are focusing on (increased migration given increased w@h) won't be the main factor in your two year window.

No one knows what will happen with property prices. I bought during 2 booming periods when people were advising causation and that properties would fall. My first house doubled in price and my second has almost trebled.

We're in recession right now, so my prediction would be stagnation on average over the next year, with some pockets maybe seeing falls/rises. Going by recent history, we're unlikely to have a boom while unemployment rises (which is what's happening right now). The stamp duty holiday will mask the true picture while it's in place though.

We just don't know how long /deep the current recession will be.

Prices will undoubtedly go up unfortunately. Unless there's a financial crash, but you also have to remember your house will be worth less too. Location will always matter. Places with more demand (london) are always going to be more expensive. Even a few streets in my neighbourhood differ up to 20-30k.

Overall historically there is one only upwards pricing direction for real estate and land values. However we will possibly see a potentially massive market pricing downward correction soon as we are in the midst of the worst ever in living memory economic collapse due to Covid and hard WTO no trade deals UK (possibly future split with Scotland separated) Brexit.

Unless you are a savvy property investor or developer I think you are still safe as houses if you play the long game and an owner occupier and not just buy, flip, kill style. The UK government(s) can continue to play with the housing taxation system but overall the game is to keep property prices high and so everyone is a winner apart from the next generations who do not have the loaded bank of mum and dad on tap. The children of today will find it impossible unless they reach senior management level quickly to afford their own properties in their preferred areas (wfh or not). We simply have a mismatched housing supply and demand dynamic and there is ever more demand due to UK household blended lifestyle changes and international demand (at the top end). Developers still naturally milking the land banking limited build system to keep margins per sale high.

Seeing how the London property market is doing well I don't see an exodus. There's way more to living in cities than working in an office. While some spots may suffer (Canary Wharf maybe), others will be buoyant.
I certainly don't see my area having a boom- on the surface desirable as near the sea and relatively cheap housing, but schools aren't great and limited work opportunities. Not everyone can or wants to work from home.

To see more geographic fluidity in the UK regional property markets we obviously required a more joined up physical transportation infrastructure. Actual nationwide high speed rail (budgets spent on infrastructure not talking shop for consulting fees), expanded motorway networks, cheaper domestic aviation etc. Plus we need 5G if not next generation 6G technology communications. Rural UK black spots are still in the dark ages with at best GSM 3G mobile communications and slow copper landlines. These things matter in the digital age and not compatible with working from home. Amenities especially basics for old and young including retail, local fast deliveries (not necessarily talking central London messenger hot coffee deliveries), schools and medical facilities, bars and restaurants and entertainment etc are understandably lacking in rural and smaller populated remote parts. If new AI personal aviation flying drones cars etc become a thing then we may see more geographical movements of populations. These things (flying cars etc) were dreamed of in my childhood decades ago and may still be decades away from reality!

Surely whether one can wfh or not is not the main reason for choosing where to live.

I imagine a great many people might want to wfh but still live in a vibrant city like London.

Choosing to live in large cities isn't just about being within travelling distance of the office. There's a lot more going on and for many people the idea of moving out of the city and to, what many people might see as 'out in the sticks', would hold no appeal whatsoever.

At this time OP, I think it's impossible for anyone to predict how the future will pan out vis-a-vis wfh and the movement of population and the subsequent impact, or not, on house prices, but I suspect city house prices will always tend to be higher than rural.

I live in a semi rural area and even here the houses in the nearest 'big' towns are more expensive than like for like house in the smaller towns and villages.

I don't think that's just about people being nearer to work. They have the convenience of more shops, although, that could change with so many shops closing and people buying online. But they also have the railway nearby, that always raises house prices, more choice of schools, easier access to hospitals, theatres, cinemas and so on; important things for many people.

Surely whether one can wfh or not is not the main reason for choosing where to live.

I agree it is only one factor, but for many people the decision to live in London/SE due to work is a life changing one in lots of negative ways.

We live in London due to being close to DP's work which has always been a very London centric industry and he has had to go into the office. Like many others it has meant that we rent rather than own despite being over 40, and we live in a small flat that while lovely in many ways has many inconveniences. Being London based has affected our future finances hugely, due to not owning a home, but we have had to balance that with DP having his job.

Now he has been working from home since March and will be for the foreseeable. For all the other good and bad things about London, many people like us will find it hard to justify the day to day struggles of life in small rental flats, and the financial impact of being unable to buy, if they don't actually need to be there.

I agree that doesn't necessarily mean they will move somewhere really rural or remote though.

Surely whether one can wfh or not is not the main reason for choosing where to live.

A huge number of people base where they will live on commuting range to where jobs are available in what they want to do. That’s a lot of the cause of the pressure on housing in the south and close to city centers. So working from home as a norm would have a huge impact on how those people would think about where they can live.

@BoomBoomsCousin

Surely whether one can wfh or not is not the main reason for choosing where to live.

A huge number of people base where they will live on commuting range to where jobs are available in what they want to do. That’s a lot of the cause of the pressure on housing in the south and close to city centers. So working from home as a norm would have a huge impact on how those people would think about where they can live.

Commuting is one factor, but it's not the only factor - not by a very long way....

• schools
• access to hobbies/culture/entertainment
• proximity to family/friends
• proximity to decent transport links, including airports
• whether an area is 'naice'
• etc....

Based on the location of my job (a city), I could have lived anywhere in an area of +100 square miles. I chose where I live because of other factors that were important to me, balanced against the commute.

@ReceptacleForTheRespectable

If there isn't any push, then I think the house prices "up north" will start to match the ones around the M25.

Given the coming recession, where is all the money going to come from to drive most of the country's properly prices up? If there is such a significant exodus, London property prices would fall. Foreign investors wouldn't plug the whole gap.

I live in a desirable village in a northern national park, and genuinely cannot see this being an attractive place for someone who is used to central London. It's lovely (I love it, anyway!), but it has none of the things that people living in London are used to. No uber, limited take away delivery options (my village is lucky that we do have some that deliver), limited restaurant options, limited transport / entertainment options for teen children, a one-screen cinema within 20mins but if you want more choice it's a reasonable drive, theatre or art exhibitions are in the nearest city - an hour away etc... WFH or not, those things are still important to many people, which is why cities are popular. And that's without going into the weather etc. - I'm not sure the average London banker is ready to deal with actually living somewhere like the Scottish Highlands, either in summer (midges) or winter.

Londoners may have an idealised view of what life in "the country" is like, but I doubt it will live up to their Lord of the manor fantasies tbh.

For lots of Londoners moving out, it's less an idealised view of elsewhere but rather being priced out locals. Wealthy people from the shires come to London, invest, and push up house prices so they're out of reach to local Londoners. They have to live somewhere and it's not their fault they've been priced away from their families and home city.

I totally get what you're saying about londoners being priced out and having to look elsewhere, but the posts I was responding to were saying things like:

many I know in senior corporate international city roles have long been perusing the likes of Countrylife etc with aspirations of cashing in on (tiny) luxury core central London apartments and penthouses for a nice county pile with land and preferably some sort of hunting and gaming leisure on tap in the likes of Scottish Highlands etc.

They weren't talking about people priced out of London, hence my reference to 'Lord of the manor fantasies'.

Ah ok. Apologies for misunderstanding your post. I see what you mean.
Yes I think many have an unrealistic idealist dream, although some people really do prefer a quieter life.
Re priced out non senior city type Londoners. I know several people who are looking further afield. They were looking before the pandemic. It used to be Kent, Essex, or Herefordshire, but with more working from home some are expanding their search areas.

I meant Hertfordshire...although perhaps with more WFH some might look further away in Herefordshire.