To not understand why this 20 cases per 100,000 seems to be so important for the air bridges

[Bearbehind]

Over recent weeks, when a country has exceeded 20 cases per 100,000 people over 7 days, they drop of the air bridges

But surely the higher the testing levels, the higher the number of positive cases and this doesn’t appear to be factored in

Also, our number is inching up so what happens if we get to 20?

I agree

I'm with you. It makes zero sense when they're opening schools soon and plenty of the population - especially in the high case areas in the U.K. - are ignoring advice over mass gatherings. The travel industry is on its knees.

Totally agree it’s nonsensical...but then I am very bitter after returning from a remote part of France where cases were below 4 per 100,000 and being forced to quarantine and not allow the kids to return to school when the area I live in is treble that. Beginning to loathe the system...

I want to know how the numbers of tests vs numbers of positive results is being recorded and reported.

When you get news reports (like on BBC Radio) saying that the number of positive C-19 cases in the UK is higher this week since the end of May, how does that relate to the number of people being tested?

More testing doesn't necessarily mean a higher positive rate. NY state tested just under 94,000 people in one day with 635 positive tests coming back. This range of numbers has been consistent for about the last 3 weeks and should be what countries are aiming for.

I should add - I work as cabin crew and I'm not quarantined when arriving back.. they need to find a better way

But surely if they are testing. more they are just proving the virus is in more people, who will be carrying on as normal and spreading it further if they were not tested

Testing allows you to see a better picture, and where areas of concern are.

Otherwise what? No testing get the figures below 20 so air bridges can remain open and then bring the virus home with you?

It has to be set as some figure, and areas with that fact inure or above in the uk go onto the watch list and local lockdowns if required

No testing get the figures below 20 so air bridges can remain open

That’s exactly my point- it’s possible to under or over state the numbers right now

If countries aren’t all testing the same proportion of their population then an arbitrary figure of 20 positive per 100,000 isn’t comparable between countries

Couldn’t agree more it’s ridiculous, the playing field isn’t level across different countries with numbers being tested. Also cases may be going up but deaths don’t seem to be so far

@Bearbehind

No testing get the figures below 20 so air bridges can remain open

That’s exactly my point- it’s possible to under or over state the numbers right now

If countries aren’t all testing the same proportion of their population then an arbitrary figure of 20 positive per 100,000 isn’t comparable between countries

Yes, this is exactly what I'm querying and don't understand.

@Chicchicchicchiclana I think we’re not understanding because it makes no sense!

The ONS are doing random sampling of the population.

Obviously testing people who think they are ill is going to increase positives.

But testing at random does give an idea about the level of infection in the general community and the rate of increase / decrease.

However:

The tests themselves aren't accurate - many false negatives.
The numbers coming up positive are low relative to the number of people tested - so when you scale it up to the population, you have a wide range of levels due to confidence intervals.

BBC More or Less explains it well

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08pm9nt

ONS
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

An estimated 28,200 people (95% credible interval: 20,100 to 37,900) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 14 to 20 August 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,900 individuals.

The modelled estimates for the latest six-week period are based on 141,048 swab tests collected over this period. During these weeks, 71 individuals from 68 households tested positive.

This is still baffling me

Some countries are testing a lot of people and, quite expectedly, getting more positives

Surely the UK government need to finesse their criteria for striking countries from their quarantine list?

The UK is going to be higher than many of the countries we can travel too soon