To wonder at what point the govt will address the minimal threat from Covid

[TheMurk]

We’re in a position where there have been 6 deaths from (with) coronavirus out of a population of 66.5 million.

In the same 24 hours 8 people died in RTAs.

There were 5 suicides.

So I’m just wondering when the government plans to address the vastly lowered threat from covid-19 and tell us what the next step of the plan is, and when it will start?

Because from a very urgent and vocal few months at the beginning with dramatic televised monologues, suddenly there is a pointed silence about the fact that this simply is not a grave threat to public health any longer.

Is no one concerned by this inactivity?

We should be being told at what point the masks, one way systems, queues and booking systems and other restrictions will be lessened or stopped altogether.

Why are we not being given a timeline?

We are currently stable at about 1,000 recorded infections per day (probably 2-3,000) in reality. This is because, in general, most are sensible at sticking to the anti infection measures. This does (annoyingly) mean that if the 20-30% who are blatant flouting the rules weren’t, we would probably be continuing to eliminate Covid.

As to deaths, they are reassuringly low right now. It is a mystery why and people think it is a combination of the very vulnerable having already died, some herd immunity, lower initial viral exposure due to social distancing and better treatment protocols.

In a couple of weeks, schools will reopen and the air will start to be cooler with people inside more. This is a massive test. If, and only if, come November/December infections and deaths remain low, they can start to ease more.

Yes, an idea of what the government think our next steps should be would be good.

For example, we will review the impact of mask wearing in November to decide if it needs to continue over the winter months.

Just so we know what will be reviewed and when and that this isn’t our new normal forever!

I feel similar op and started a similar thread yesterday. Although I suspect some caution and restrictions will be needwd for a long time it does feel like this is it for the foreseeable future and no one in government feels the need to change it . Ice rinks are open and you can shop till you drop in a mask, what more could you possibly want?

Exactly that tumble. And some idea of meeting family indoors as the weather gets colder. I'm not expecting quick or immediate changes but it feels as if there's absolutely no importance placed on making changes.

Many outbreaks are in food plants (here and USA). I wonder if that is because these places are kept cold and damp, ideal conditions for the virus.

We’ve had a hot summer and should be replenished in vitamin d . But when it gets cold again, we will all be in the same conditions as these food plants.

It is time to open up a bit but it’s certainly not time to be complacent.

What gets me are the things we are supposed to be able to do but can't. Like swimming. My dd is desparate to go swimming. Technically we can but all the local pools haven't opened yet because "it's not safe". It's infuriating!

So even if the government announced its all over, go back to normal, I really think it would be up to a year before it really did.

I don't think you can base any assessment of risk solely on deaths. Do you know what the incidence of recovery with long term problems is?

@PaddyF0dder

60,000 people died before we got it under control, you plum.

This about sums it up.

What I'd like to know is now incidences of lung cancer are down since the 70s, when will the government tell us it is safe to start smoking again?

Lmao that people don't want the government to 'wait and see' they want them to make a plan with no information.

Are people really this silly? Or just struggling with all the uncertainty?

Also laughing that people think 'all' the vulnerable people had it and so no risk now.

The population of the UK is over 67m, only about 7% have had covid, over a quarter of the 67m are aged 65+.

I think the virus could cause a few more problems if we all go to lala land and pretend the threat is over.

I'm struggling with the fact that there is no evidence the government has any plans to review any of the current restrictions. It feels as though they're assuming people will just accept them indefinitely.
Maybe I should assume they're doing all this work behind the scenes and will let us know if anything changes but tbh they've shown themselves time and time again to be untrustworthy, dishonest and selfish, badly lying to the public's face and not caring how it looks so tbh i don't trust them at all.
I knew when the briefings stopped it would end up like this.

@StealthPolarBear

We are in summer recess but more info will come out when parliament restarts.

Part of the reason they are not saying anything is we do not know what is going to happen with death rates etc over winter. Plus they don't have a scooby what to do.

I am NOT defending the government, I think they are shit, but people are asking for certainty when there can be none yet.

We have already unlocked too fast, we need to not compound it.

The problem with covid will never be how many people get it or die from it- it's that anyone could Randomly get it or die from it and that in years to come a whole cohort of people could have breathing issues, even people who were asymptomatic (because the people who weren't tested but had it dont know what's going on in their lungs). As someone who is 40, had no health issues but who 'had' covid (tested positive, went through hell but am 'out the other side' - back negative again but still have chest pains and breathing issues) you dont want anything eased while the possibility of it suddenly rising is still here, believe me!!

I am dreading the winter. Unless a vaccine is rolled out in the early Autumn, which would be very optimistic, I think the worst of this is yet to come. That applies to the illness itself as well as the knock on effect on the economy, jobs and schooling. We are enjoying a pleasant lull at the moment because its summer and people can be outside a lot plus vitamin D levels are higher which is supposed to help fight or resist the illness. Let the goid times roll before the grim winter months.

Let the good times roll not the goid times!

Is it down to the restrictions or is it because those who were vulnerable to dying from this illness have passed away?

If that's the case, the little bastard has missed me, I'm still alive!!!

I’m surprised we aren’t all being told to take vit d supplements - everyone should in the uk really at a safe level of course. It needs to be taken with vit k added for better absorption apparently.

I’m sorry but I think you are a bit daft. Major events postponed, schools shut, masks in certain places...why are you surprised the transition is lower than it was?
Once the schools open the transmission rate will go up.

Is it down to the restrictions or is it because those who were vulnerable to dying from this illness have passed away?

2.5 million exceptionally vulnerable
Millions more medically vulnerable (‘flu jab’ group)

41500 deaths

The vulnerable haven’t all been wiped out, and we might yet block all the hospital beds, by falling ill first and fast (and needing them for weeks/months)

And it’s heartless to suggest that once we are dead, it’ll be OK

so the measures have been successful. So what is the next step of the plan? And when? Those are my questions to the government

It's not have been. It's they are being.

In areas where there's low compliance and lots if household mixing there is still high cases.

Until the pandemic is controlled we are stuck with these measures to keep it under control.

My worry is that it could be longer than necessary because other countries don't have it under control as well as some.

The vulnerable are still vulnerable. Back to normal is a ridiculous idea at the moment. It would put them at risk.

The science says maybe this time next year. I'll listen to that.

YABU. You can't compare covid deaths with suicides and RTAs because covid is infectious with exponential growth if it isn't controlled. You can't "catch" a RTA!

Yes, we do need to continue the path to normality, but it has to be slow and steady so precautions can be taken when pockets of infection start to rise. Do it too quickly and we risk another lockdown which simply can't be allowed to happen.

It's puzzling that the case fatality rate looks so different as the months pass. Is it that the virus has weakened? Is it that there was massive under testing at the beginning? At one point about 1/5 covid cases in the UK died. Now it's about 5 in 1000, but presumably (unless a weaker strain has become prevalent) its the same disease?

Or is it even that the treatment provided to ill patients at the beginning was actually harmful and they died at a higher rate than they would have done with more minimal intervention? Remember ventilators, the reason we originally locked down (because they're expensive pieces of equipment and we didn't have enough)? Boris didn't get one, because evidence was already emerging that they can do more harm than good. If one of my relatives had been treated on a ventilator after that, and died, and would be asking some serious questions about NHS treatment protocols.

There was definitely a long period of time where, for whatever reason, the disease seemed more deadly here than in pretty much any other country. Now it doesn't.

So, yes, maybe we need to worry less about transmitting it than we did, as the fatality rate trends downwards.

I agree Freda - we should be getting health messages about vitamins and other health advice sent to elderly, vulnerable etc.

It’s very unpopular on here but adults over 50 (inc me!) need to really think about alcohol, weight, fitness etc to be in the best shape pos for this winter.

What I'd like to know is now incidences of lung cancer are down since the 70s, when will the government tell us it is safe to start smoking again?

Brilliant example and so true. Those thinking it's all over need to give their heads a wobble and remind themselves numbers are low BECAUSE of the lockdown and ongoing restrictions. It's a fragile situation that can easily return to exponential growth if people don't continue taking precautions.

I agree with you OP in many ways: it feels like we should be allowed to do more by now, the "sadly death" figures are low, and to ditch those symbolic masks facial badges of "I believe in the virus" . I want to be playing netball, and the PROPER game, not the modified "no shouting allowed, stand four feet apart" version which we MIGHT be allowed to play in September: how dare Boris take away our exercise, and then tell us we're too fat. Our glorious leader told us "we can turn this virus around in twelve weeks", "it's just to flatten the curve", his nose being so long he can't put a mask on.

I think the government doesn't want to go down the route of draconian enforcement (much as many on Mumsnet would love this), or maybe they can't because they've cut police numbers so much, so instead, they're keeping restrictions for as long as they can, while people are still playing nicely (why are we not rioting by now?!), and believing in the virus. Also, the public mood is still that many people are too scared to go back to normal, so either the government is milking that while they can, or they don't want to be seen to be "rushing" people back. They are clearly playing their cards to be able to blame the public as much as they can if things go wrong, while saying "we told you so".

We do have the tricky matter of the schools reopening, which absolutely MUST happen. I'm a huge lockdown sceptic, and I'm almost scared that the public is blindly complying while asking no questions, but to use a hideous phrase of back-from-the-dead-Saint-Boris, "it could go either way": we could see infections go up again, or they might stay low (please, please, please, please!). I suspect also that Bojo wants to be able to ban Trick or Treating if he feels the need, and to have the option of keeping people apart at Christmas. Maybe cancelling Eid was a symbolic "look at what I might do to Christmas if you don't behave".

@StealthPolarBear You're right that the government are keeping their lips sealed behind their masks about reviewing anything: the silence on this is deathly. Didn't they make reviews less frequent, while our backs were turned? And scrapping the daily briefings, when they didn't have so much bloodshed to tell us about. We need to keep up pressure on the government that we are not going to put up with this "new abnormal" for ever; if we're too docile and compliant (and I think it's scary how little the public are questioning the restrictions), they will indeed keep the restrictions in place for longer. Nothing was said by the government about the mandated masks being temporary - they assumed that we're used to them pulling restrictions out of their magic hat on a whim, and that we're not going to question it, that we're brainwashed by the phrase "new normal". We need to be questioning the hell out them!!!! I wrote to my MP seeking clarification on masks being temporary: amidst the usual politician's waffle, there was the sentence "I assure you that the restrictions will be temporary".