To think they’ll be uproar unless 2021 GCSE cohort get the same pass rate and high grades as this years?

[Mrschickpeabody]

And the whole thing is a complete mess.
I have a ds in Year 10. He was doing brilliantly prior to lockdown. He’s done his best with somewhat patchy home learning but I can’t see how he’ll possibly do as well as he would have done. All the focus seems to have been on the current year 11s missing their exams, proms etc. but I do think the year 10s and 12s are the worst hit years.

Yabvu for saying the focus is on them missing prom. My daughter worked her absolute bollocks off her entire school life, to have the opportunity to shine ripped away from her at the final hurdle, through No Fault of her own. The way people are now talking about how they have just been 'handed their grades on a plate' pisses me off no end. It was not their fault.
Please bore off.

Year 10 and 12 are gong to find it hard work. Hopefully they won't be judged against current Year 11/13 OR the previous cohort.

It is an unprecedented and awful situation. The govt have been shit but this was always going to be problematic.

I don’t think they can be expected to get the same. Their grades will be based wholly on their own work/ exams for a start and not on prediction.

I don't envy the current 11/13. Unfortunately no one fully believes all the top grades.

What do you mean by “uproar”?

It’s understandable that you’re worried about your DC - I (and teachers across the country) are working hard to modify the curriculum so we can give Y10 into 11 the best possible chance.

Some courses have had some content removed by Ofqual, which will help.

It’s definitely not ideal - are there particular subjects you’re worried about?

I immature next years GCSEs and Alevels will both be higher than 2019 but considerably lower than 2020. I feel very sorry for the Y12s who will be competing for many fewer university places since some of the Y13s will have to defer to take up their secured uni places.

This affects both my children. I worry the older one will have lots of competition for degree courses. There needs to be a big inquiry into it all.

Immature=imagine

For year 10 and 12 they still have this coming academic year to go and hopefully schools will be able to factor in some catch up time via revision sessions, they still have the opportunity to turn it around.

The trouble with year 11 and year 13 is that the government knew it would cause problems when they cancelled the exams but failed to have a proper plan in place for managing this. Instead of focusing on getting the pubs open and jolly days out to Barnard Castle they should have been looking at a way for the year 11/year 13 groups to sit their exams, even if those exams were modified to reflect the interruption in the curriculum.

The current year 10s won't be judged against this year's exam cohort. This year has been exceptional circumstances and everyone is aware of this. Next year's exam cohort have had their own challenges and grade boundaries will reflect this.

look every one is naturally really concerned about the effect this whole thing has had on their child's education. But this competitive misery isn't really helping anyone.

Everyone's in the same boat. Let's get them back to school first then we can concentrate on whats going to happen about the learning and exams next yr

No, the pass rate should go back to the 2019 level. The 2020 bunch will have anomalous results.
GCSEs are now marked on a curve rather than to absolute levels. Grade boundaries for 2021 will be lower I suspect, or at minimum there will be greater range between scores for top grades and those lower down.

I feel very sorry for the Y12s who will be competing for many fewer university places since some of the Y13s will have to defer to take up their secured uni places

I think that will be the biggest issue for next year and I hope the universities are able to plan ahead for it. I wonder if part-distance learning may be utilised so more spaces can be offered without increasing the number of students on campus.

@Stannisbaratheonsboxofmatches the pupils going into Y11 have missed a term of work, if schools are going to be disrupted regularly this term and probably next term there will be some students, especially in hot spots, who will miss quite a significant part of their GCSE work. How fair will it be for them to sit exams especially alongside students who have not been so severely impacted (particularly if those students had good remote learning provision in the summer term)

At least the current Y11 finished their studies.

One thing this may throw up is how realistic are exams and are they the best way to judge students, especially if it is just one set at the end of the course?

Get a grip!

I feel very sorry for the Y12s who will be competing for many fewer university places since some of the Y13s will have to defer to take up their secured uni places

Hopefully the dip in overseas applicants will help even that out.

One thing this may throw up is how realistic are exams and are they the best way to judge students, especially if it is just one set at the end of the course

I agree

What worries me though is that what to do about exams in 2021 will be left to the last sodding minute...I’m hoping they are planning For every eventuality now

I totally agree. This year's GCSEs have been grossly and artificially inflated, and its a real worry.

And the hysterical breast-beating about 'prom' is totally absurd, too.

Although the results are vetter this year, I don't think its a massive increase tbh. My child got the grades they would have got imo. In fact I think they could have done a lot better but probabky wouldnt have revised massively so would have achieved what they got. Except one which was surprising low as it was their best subject and they got a better mark in their mock. Strange. I think next years cohort will be just fine tbh.

The high achieving yr10s should be fine. The GCSEs are just a stepping stone now to A levels. When it comes to University most of the year above who are applying with current yr10s will already have their A levels which will hopefully be sat in a post covid era. The problem will be for those competing for any roles which just need GCSEs.

Hopefully the dip in overseas applicants will help even that out.

I hope so too, but for Cambridge at least (and I suspect other top universities where overseas students are more likely to still take up their places) they have already said there will be compulsory deferrals and therefore fewer new places next year, and there will then be a cascading affect on the other universities too.

www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/coronavirus

I too think the major impact will be on last year 10 & 12. I completely understand that the current years 11 & 13 have been impacted too but not to the same extent as the years below just for sheer volume of work missed.
I’d be delighted if next year they had the same arrangement For teacher predicted grades. This year should be afforded the same privilege.

The biggest issue is the patchiness, the gap between the priveliged and the disadvantaged has been massively extended and the government has seen the outrage that comes from this unfairness this year, that gap will be much worse next year than it even was with the algorithm if just the normal grade boundary adjustments are made. They need to think now about how to balance things not react later to the growth of protests.

@Lindy2

I feel very sorry for the Y12s who will be competing for many fewer university places since some of the Y13s will have to defer to take up their secured uni places

Hopefully the dip in overseas applicants will help even that out.

The dip in EU will probably be made up for by the non-EU who have already deferred to 2021 because of Covid.

Of course rates will be significantly lower.

Kids will be actually sitting exams, so the "Bad Day" effect will be back.

For the first time ever, everyone in 2020 did as their teachers hoped and had evidence for (even if some were optimistic). Nobody had to cope with a bad nights sleep, family worries, anxiety, illness or even just reading a question incorrectly! That was the main driver for the grade increase. If you think huge numbers of teachers thought "Well Katie should only get a 4 , but lets give her an 8", you really don't understand the process.

And there isn't a prom in my kid's school.