Won't children sitting public exams next year be terribly disadvantaged?

[stressed2021]

I know there are a lot of similar threads going around, but none seem to address this issue? With the Government u-turning on grades given this year, won't this massively affect those sitting next year, as my DD in year 12 as the grades they achieve will be de-valued due to grade inflation? Surely, the cap on English unis should have been lifted this year and people who were unhappy with grades should sit them in the Autumn.

I think for next years students account needs to be taken for the missed term this year.

However the only fair way they could have done anything this year was to take the teachers predictions. Other systems just didn’t work

Students next year will be disadvantaged, but not by the U turn. They will still be able to sit their exams and they will be awarded the right university places. If Universities don’t start from the beginning again with their offers, it’s this years Y13s that will remain at the biggest disadvantage.

@NailsNeedDoing
But surely the grades achieved by those sitting public exams next year be massively devalued due to the inflation this year and therefore the grades will not be looked as highly upon by employers.

How have the grades this year been inflated?

With the Government u-turning on grades given this year, won't this massively affect those sitting next year, as my DD in year 12 as the grades they achieve will be de-valued due to grade inflation?

I don't think it will because it will be clear that they weren't the 2020 Covid-19 cohort and thus the grades aren't comparable.

@Phoenix21

How have the grades this year been inflated?

They are (now) entirely teacher estimates and much higher than would have been expected from a proper exam year

Everyone will know that current year 13 grades are awarded and I doubt anyone will forget why. It’s not beyond the wit of universities and employers to devise criteria that will allow them to look at the individuals and their skills, rather than a list of grades, and frankly this may make selection systems more holistic in their approach.

As far as year 12s go, I’m more concerned that the cap on uni numbers is removed, so kids can avoid wasting a year and increasing pressure on numbers next year.

[quote stressed2021]@NailsNeedDoing
But surely the grades achieved by those sitting public exams next year be massively devalued due to the inflation this year and therefore the grades will not be looked as highly upon by employers.[/quote]
So basically you want to hang this years students out to dry to make things easier for your daughter

No they are not teacher estimates; they are centre assessed grades and the teacher grades were just the starting point for the deliberations
My school employed Fft aspire, who provide educational data analysis for the whole country to look at our cags across the curriculum and with historic data.

@Sirzy

I think for next years students account needs to be taken for the missed term this year.

However the only fair way they could have done anything this year was to take the teachers predictions. Other systems just didn’t work

The grade boundaries will take missing into consideration. However there will be fewer spaces at the popular universities because the current year 13s will have taken up a fair number of spaces, and when they run out of space they have been told they have to offer them a space next year. Do you know how much universities over offer assuming that a fair number will miss? A large amount. So in order to not over offer, they will either offer fewer places or ask for higher grades. Great for the university maybe, but rubbish for the year 12s who have also had a poor time.

It certainly wasn't the only fair way, simply because it isn't fair. You have your rightfully got B, because your school was honest and careful about results. But the school up the road put everyone up a grade (I've heard a teacher saying they were told to do just that, so that isn't just a fiction) So you're competing against the people who should have got the same as you now are on A, and the Cs who have been put up to B.

But more than that. People will assume you didn't deserve the B too.
Those people will be disadvantaged several times over.

Ditto GCSE with 6th form spaces. In our area most people go to the large 6th form. Some classes are oversubscribed. Guess how they choose who to except? Yes, that's right, GCSE results.
So Tyler with his genuinely got B, will be pushed down the list by Mandy and Claire from the other school whose teachers inflated it to A.

I think it’s more likely that employers will doubt the grades awarded in 2020 rather than not valuing grades awarded in 2021 as much.

Which is another disadvantage for the students doing major exams this year

Of course next years cohort are disadvantaged by missing a big chunk of school, not to mention any further disruption over the next 12 months. Possibly more disadvantaged depending on where they live, if local lockdowns are in place intermittently through the year, as it won’t be consistent between areas, whereas this year everyone has been in the same boat

How are the teacher estimates compiled? I assume it’s on the basis of submitted essays/mocks/potential and moderated?

Obviously some kids would have done better/worse but surely that’s fairer then including prior school attainment/locality?

Of course next years cohort are disadvantaged by missing a big chunk of school, not to mention any further disruption over the next 12 months
Yes, Y10 and Y12 have lost more teaching time in real terms than Y11 and Y13 did, and will have been more affected in that regard. Still, the government have almost a year to work out how to mitigate for that. Should be simple enough, right?

@Sirzy
I never said I wanted other students to be hung out dry just for my DD. It won't make it easier for her, as she will still have to work hard to get the grades she is predicted in the final exams. I am saying that whatever grade she achieved, lower or higher than her predicted AAB, they will be devalued due to the inflation that has occurred this year due to purely CAGs being used to determine grades.

I think there is too much credence given to past results and other students results. Only do many are allowed an A. What happened last year counts. Lower graded schools can't do better. Private schools have to achieve excellent marks. It is all bollocks.

A child studies. They should be graded their actual achievement not a look at what Johnny got last year and that the school never gets above a B etc.

One anomalous year does not equal “grade inflation”. For inflation grades would have to go up year on year. Nobody will expect next years students to be judged against 2020 results, they’ll judge them against 2019 and before and always expect 2020 to be an odd spike. Employers are always going to know a 2020 result is a bit odd (and anyway jobs are awarded in interview not A level results).

[quote stressed2021]@Sirzy
I never said I wanted other students to be hung out dry just for my DD. It won't make it easier for her, as she will still have to work hard to get the grades she is predicted in the final exams. I am saying that whatever grade she achieved, lower or higher than her predicted AAB, they will be devalued due to the inflation that has occurred this year due to purely CAGs being used to determine grades.[/quote]

What system would you suggest? Nothing was fair. I say this with a child getting GCSEs Thursday and one sitting them next year.

Grades will be inflated but it was the only fair way for this year. Take the example of 5 students all capable of getting a c. Student one does very well gets an A, student two gets bang on the C, student three does badly gets an E....without actually sitting the exams each one of those students should be awarded a C this year as it's the only fair way. This is why they will be overinflated this year but there was no other way.

@stressed2021
people who were unhappy with grades should sit them in the Autumn.

So it’s ok for those children to be disadvantaged and sit exams having had hardly any teaching But it’s not ok for your daughter to be disadvantaged?

Yes, Y10 and Y12 have lost more teaching time in real terms than Y11 and Y13 did, and will have been more affected in that regard. Still, the government have almost a year to work out how to mitigate for that. Should be simple enough, right

Ha ha ha. Have you seen the Ofqual response to the consultation they ran? Virtually no changes to exams at all. And all the media was interested in was the fact there was no compulsory poetry for Eng lit GCSE . I didn't do poetry for GCSE!

So you can lose 1/5 (at least) of face to face teaching and have hardly any changes made to exams at all. This year's cohort have been dragged through the mill but it should be ok for them in the end (though I am wondering what the score is if you were rejected last week and took up a different uni place in Clearing - can you have the original place back). For next year - who knows.

As far as year 12s go, I’m more concerned that the cap on uni numbers is removed, so kids can avoid wasting a year and increasing pressure on numbers next year.

I'm more concerned about the many students who wouldn't have got into University in a 'normal' year and will now waste a year, then drop out with debts and nothing to show for it.

@SunshineCake, a child/student should get what they deserve but a teacher can’t predict exactly what would have happened in external exams or where the boards’ grade boundaries would have fallen. I work in a SFC and we did the best we could using five specific pieces of data, but we did expect change, particularly at the ends of individual grade rankings. I’m pleased for anyone whose grade has now gone up, but the whole thing remains an embarrassing, unfair fiasco. I wish the exam boards could have worked out a robust, defensible procedure that would have made this U turn unnecessary.

Dropping two grades was really unfair though.

We are playing catch up with the rest of the UK. So much for united.

Nobody will expect next years students to be judged against 2020 results, they’ll judge them against 2019 and before and always expect 2020 to be an odd spike.

I hope you're right, but I'm betting that teachers will be complaining about 'unfair' results next year.

I think there is too much credence given to past results and other students results. Only do many are allowed an A. What happened last year counts. Lower graded schools can't do better. Private schools have to achieve excellent marks. It is all bollocks.

I quite agree @SunshineCake. All this grade manipulation is bollocks.

And while we're at it, why are there so many examining boards? Surely, in the interests of a level playing field, every student should take the same set of questions.