To be worried about GCSE results next week

[BetterCallSaul99]

My dd attended a school in a deprived area. After reading about the fiasco of a levels I'm dreading next Thurs. I'm so upset for all of the students. My dd has had such a tough time at high school and you build this day in your head.... going into school to get results, thanking and hugging the teachers! Now results by email and even worse who knows how they will be graded anymore?

YANBU. Fortunately Dd wants to stay at her school for 6th form and although they have quite a high entry requirement (six 6s) I'm pretty certain they will accept her whatever the government gives her next week as she got almost all 7s in her mocks. They know what they've predicted and what she should get, I hope they keep the offer on that. But yeah, I'm really worried about massive downgrading. I'm so so glad she is yr 11 and not 13, watching all those kids miss out on uni places was gut retching. Just the complete toll on their mental health really. It mustve been awful.

YANBU. DS1 is waiting for results and we are all anxious about it after yesterday.

Yanbu. I think gcse results will be even more if a shitstorm than the a level results.

Dd's school have emailed that they will accept CAGs instead of haphazard algorithm grades for entry to sixth form which is good. ("Haphazard algorithm grades" is my wording not the school's)

Yep I'm worried for DS. He's a bright but fairly laid back lazy lad, who put minimal effort into his mocks but thankfully still managed to do ok. His top subject is Maths and he achieved a 7 in his mock but needs a 7 to get into to do it at A Level. He was predicted an 8 with a 9 if he really knuckled down.
His back up subject is physics - but college only take you on for physics a long side Maths a level . So don't know what he'll do if it comes to that.

I think this has shocked him though, made him realise he doesn't know what'll happen over the next couple of years so he just needs to focus in case it all goes to pot again

I would hope that their algorithm will work a bit better for GCSEs because for many subjects there will be quite a few students sitting each exam, especially for Ebacc subjects. Although those at the extremes of their normal school range might be less accurate hopefully with larger numbers it won't be as inaccurate as A levels.

The problem is not the forecasts or the moderating down, the problem is the algorithm that fits this year's students to last year's distribution of results, so if you were the lowest of five As but the algorithm decides your school should only have four As, you go down. And if you are a C, but no one else is below you, and the algorithm decides based on last year the school would have a U in this subject you get a U. These anomalies are outrageous and unfair and say nothing about the students and everything about flawed big data - yes overall results not much different but individuals bafflingly unfairly treated.

If this is how the algorithm works, then it is deeply flawed and can produce terribly unfair results. I thought it should work by taking the teacher's grade and then if the overall results for the school are too high, to choose to downgrade those on the margins between grades to a lower one i.e. at most, a student should only go down one grade from the teachers grade in one (or if unlucky 2) subject. However, based on the fact that some results reported in the news seemed totally anomalous (C to U?).

That's shit and the algorithm itself needs to be legally challenged.

Did people really design an algorithm to fit a school's previous year's exact grades? If true, that is totally illogical and insane.

Worried here too

Dd at a RI comp in deprived area. She's always been in top set but would be ranked in the middle of that set. January predictions were mostly 7s with an 8 and a 6. Really concerned that she could be given 5's across the board due to ranking. This will screw her a level choices as needs at least a 6 in maths and English

Went through this shit with ds and A level results yesterday. He was awarded BCC despite college grade sent to exam boards being ABC. He didn't meet the BBC needed for his only uni offer but fortunately was given the place anyway . Unlikely to get upgraded on mocks as they were taken in classroom rather than formal exam hall with invigilators

2020 can go do one - dh works for an airline and his job is at risk. He's had 3 months on furlough at a significant pay cut. I work in the sporting events industry and that's all stopped too . It's just a never ending shit show right now

One of two things will happen:

Your children will be shafted like the A level students not at Eton, or-

The government will do a U turn and everyone will get an A.

What won't happen is the CAGs will be honoured.

I'm worried about ds results, he got 8, for English language, 6 for literature, 5 for maths, 7,7, for science, 7 for Geography, 5 for History, 4 for Computer Science & a Distinction in BTEC Drama in his mocks, he goes to a school where 2/3 of pupils live on council estates that are branded as deprived, 45% of pupils get free school meals. Every pupil entered for A levels at the school has had their grade reduced from what they were scored at by the grading lists, last year the A level grades were the highest in the city, this year there hasn't been a single A or A* awarded, the school is raising a complaint as to how the grades were arrived at & has told every pupil to appeal their grades.

I'm really worried - I teach GCSE in a FE college in a deprived area. Dreading results day.

YANBU. It's like the exam grades have been done by Zoopla. They've had months to come up with a formula and they've come up with something that says 'Grade your students and we'll take that order and apply last year's results to your grading'.
I don't have a dc affected but it seems such a blunt tool.

YANBU. DD’s school have already said they will take whichever is the higher of CAG or awarded grades for 6th form entry, and support Autumn resits alongside A levels/Btecs. But, having been through A level results this week with DS1 I am fully expecting another total shit show.

They should have used CAGS initially. If they seem implausibly high in a certain centre they should have requested evidence. Grades could than be adjusted more fairly. Horrible that teachers have done all this work to come up with CAGS grades for nothing. Also how can two identical studrnts not get same rank and therefore possibly not the same grade?

So last night was awful. Dd broke down and was sobbing in my arms saying how unfair it all is. Some of her older friends have been downgraded with a levels by 2 grades in some and have been told they can't go on the course of their choice. She was heartbroken and is worried sick she will fail and have to resit. She doesn't even know what she wants to do anyway let alone have to do extra work. I've done my best to console her and said I'm sure college will let her in whatever happens.

It's terrible and what makes it worse is that we have no control over this matter.
I was wondering though if those schools that do some early entry GCSEs could appeal all results based on the fact that their students did exceptionally well in yr 10 in a difficult subject. And if this appeal is successful then all schools will have a leg to appeal upon iyswim.
For eg. Those that did the CS gcse last yr at ds's school all got between 7&9s so on this basis the school can prove that they haven't inflated predicted grades.