I was just coming onto say too, that I imagine lots of people referring to 'predicted grades' mean UCAS.
These are known to be extremely optimistic and over 80% of students don't achieve their UCAS predictions in times when exams are sat......people do forget that.
The CAGs (submitted by schools) will be lower than UCAS. Given schools knew their historic grades profile would be used, simply submitting vastly inflated UCAS grades was never going to work, so instead they submitted slightly inflated CAGs which were a bit more realistic but still optimistic. But of course students didn't know those grades and probably still hoped for their UCSS predictions.
Although lots of individuals have been let down by all this, on a macro level, A Level preformance is still up nationally. If all the CAGs teachers put forward had been actually awarded, there would have been grade hyperinflation. If the UCAS grades had been put forward the inflation would have been serious hyperinflation.
I know these things don't help students who are disappointed, but they might explain why what has happened has. The difficulty is that students hang onto their UCAS grades and think they are likely grades, but actually they are grades of severe optimism with a strong following wind....and simply cannot be achieved by all.
With the u-turn about appeals yesterday, more schools are now probably telling students their CAGs. These were always intended to be kept private so teachers could sum it them without parental or student pressure. They were probably never meant to be recealed, but given the appeals system that will emerge, it probably is needed for students to know them. And in itself this has caused difficulties with students and parents being confused to see they are not the same as UCAS grades, and then if they are downgraded as well, they may well be far from what the UCAS prediction was. The fact most would never have achieved their UCAS grade doesn't remove the disappointment.
And still, overall results are higher.
Have we heard of any institutions where the grades given were substantially below the 3 year average for that institution. Again 3 year averages don't really make individuals who feel disappointed feel better, but on a global scale, the grades probably are similar and actually pretty similar to what most students would have achieved in reality in exams....but of course,me hen you've sat the exams, you do t feel so let down because it has been more in your control. It's the lack of any control for months which makes it all so very very upsetting. I can see that.