A’Level disasters 😔😣

[OverTheRainbow88]

Any other schools been majorly hit?

@studychick81 what they should have done is run the model then compare with the CAGs submitted by schools . Where there was a significant difference from the expected distribution of grades they should have called for the evidence which they had asked schools to accumulate to back up the CAG submission. In some cases this may have shown that schools were too optimistic, in others it would have revealed an outlier either at cohort or individual level and the results could have been adjusted. Had they done this they would probably have ended up with a distribution nationally broadly similar to what they have done but spread differently across cohort/school/subject.

What they should not have done is ignore the CAG for all entries of 15+ , and apply their algorithm to ranking and past performance of the school only with no reference to individual performance because crucially what they have done is break the link between individual effort and result which critically undermines the integrity of the result.

It looks like some teachers over-egged the scores (what did they have to lose?) and that possibly cause the huge downgrading right keep marks at ‘averaged out’ (so yes, the likes of Eton who got 75% AAs and 93% A-B (2019 figures) won’t exactly need to inflate predictions will they?*

It's not a case of 'over-egging' scores.

The nature of exams means that in any group some will do unexpectedly badly because they panic and don't answer the question or because their life fell apart in the months leading up to the exam, or because they simply didn't revise.

This is one of the reasons that the 11+ was abandoned, and also why generally marks tend to be higher with continuous assessment.

It is impossible for a teacher to fairly predict which pupils will really underperform in exams because of external events. However, any algorithm based on previous performance must take those events into account if its aim is to create a similar range of results.

Of course some pupils do much better than predicted in exams and some pupils don't do well with course work based exams, but its still difficult for a teacher to incorporate in a prediction the kind of event that would turn an A into a D or a C into a U.

I don't know, but would imagine, that pupils who go to private schools are more protected from the kind of events that can cause huge fluctuations between predicted and actual results, and that this is one of the reasons why their predicted grades tend to be more consistent.

the unfairness is increased when a student from a previously poorly performing school isn't allowed to beat the average.

Pease- ok I see. Is this not why they are allowing appeals? For those very children where there is a discrepancy? I wonder if doing what you suggest for each individual pupil would have been an impossible task and is seems there are so many.

I think what they should have done is not tell kids the predicted until they were reviewed and amended. And schools should have reviewed if they were in normal parameters,

Much of this is about predictions v award. The predictions were thirty percent higher than normal, schools have a lot to answer for here. The predictions got kids all excited, why wouldn’t they, they were thirty percent higher than normal, and the actual awards has now pissed off many, a downgrade is never going to be taken well.

Yes some kids have been unfairly penalised and the appeals need to fix that, but as seventy percent of grades were not touched, and as some of the downgrading would be accurate then it is the minority impacted. Still thousands too many though and schools need to accept responsibility for th absolute fuck up for those kids,

If they hadn’t over egged to this extent in the first place, then told the kids, this shit storm would never have happened.

Just wondering - KS2 levels were said to be being used as a further 'check and balance' in the standardisation process.

Independent schools will not, in general, have this data.

So in addition to the 'much looser check on CAG by algorithm based on previous performance in small cohorts' advantage, private schools will ALSO have no check on CAGs through KS2 results.

Remembering that to avoid grade inflation, almost every over-graded result in the private sector means that another student - almost certainly in the state sector - has to be downgraded, it is another reason why private schools, particularly small ones, have essentially been subject to a completely different assessment process from state schools...with results as we see.

Students absolutely should not have been told their CAG. It was in the Ofqual guidance from the start. However, "predictions" are routinely given throughout the year, and of course for UCAS, and the latter usually error on the side of generosity.

seventy percent of grades were not touched

I thought it was 58% that were the same grade as the CAG?

If the adjustments are heavily weighted to class size, then it's clear and obvious that this will favour those at independent and/or wealthier schools. That fact would also be well known to decision makers
This would be disgraceful if it's the case

It is the case. Sadly I'm not even surprised with this government.

The predictions got kids all excited

The CAGs were not released to children. They had no idea what schools had submitted.

They may well have had grades predicted for UCAS, but those grades are not the same as CAGs.

If you’re going to have a go at teachers, at least get your facts straight.

@TheFallenMadonna

Students absolutely should not have been told their CAG. It was in the Ofqual guidance from the start. However, "predictions" are routinely given throughout the year, and of course for UCAS, and the latter usually error on the side of generosity.

I think this is a really useful distinction. Teachers here are usually talking about downgrading from CAG.

Parents / students are often talking about downgrading from prediction - either UCAS prediction or that from reports etc.

Downgrading from CAG is an issue. Not achieving the optimistic UCAS predictions is normal.

Dds grades were not over egged

I would assume if hers were right then others in the class were right

60% of them lost one or more grades

The predictions were thirty percent higher than normal, schools have a lot to answer for here.

Please read repeated explanations of why there will always be a difference between a prediction of capability and actual exam results.

Of course there is a world of difference between them learning the (entirely valid) life lesson which is you get what you work for/deserve most of the time, and the current situation, which is you will get what the mistaken logic of some idiot's algorithm, which has been inadequately validated by incompetent officials, has dictated. Those two situations are worlds apart. I am not prepared to message to my son that the latter is something he should take lying down, ever. Nothing to do with snowflakery.

How on earth can you get a U with B and C predictions?

@Puppywithattitude

How on earth can you get a U with B and C predictions?

If in the last 3 years, 1 person in the cohort got a U for the subject - perhaps were ill or had adverse personal circumstances or whatever - then this year, the last person in the teachers' rankings will get a U, regardless of their CAG (submitted teacher assessment), if the cohort for the subject is greater than 15.

‘ I wonder if doing what you suggest for each individual pupil would have been an impossible task and is seems there are so many.’

A discrepancy of this size should have immediately thrown up concerns about the model as guidelines for setting the CAG were, I understand, pretty prescriptive in terms of evidence .

Additionally they would have been marking all the papers anyway so could have utilised their existing bank of markers and it could have been done remotely through a shared secure area.

It is worth pointing out that exam boards have still charged schools for the exams in full, they have also furloughed / not paid markers on zero hours contracts so have saved considerable sums . I think their accounts next year could make interesting reading .

Puppy

twitter.com/a_weatherall/status/1294012623776817158?s=21

This explains it well.

CAGs were not released to the pupils beforehand.. I do despair at some posters regular ability to wade into a topic with a modicum of knowledge (often wrong) and pontificate. It is frequently seen on employment threads with some posters regularly giving out absolutely poor, shit and wrong advice..

Smile's link is much better than my over-simplistic explanation!

@Bluntness100 do you mean predictions or CAGs? They are very different. Students did not know their CAGs.

The schools did not disclose the CAGs, quite the opposite infact - they distanced themselves completely from parents so that the system remained confidential.

Our school released the CAGs (on the internal pupil's portal) at the same time as the actual results yesterday morning because they feel so strongly that the algorithm is indefensible. I think many students have the CAGs. Predicted grades obviously everyone knew before applying.

*Toptotoeunicolour

Yes, many students have them now. Bluntness was suggesting that students had that data before the results, and were excited, but then disappointed with their awarded grades.

This is bollocks.

If in the last 3 years, 1 person in the cohort got a U for the subject - perhaps were ill or had adverse personal circumstances or whatever - then this year, the last person in the teachers' rankings will get a U, regardless of their CAG (submitted teacher assessment), if the cohort for the subject is greater than 15.

But that’s ridiculous, the person in the cohort who got a U wouldn’t necessary be the lowest ranking in class - it could just as easily be someone towards the top whose mind went blank in the exam. What an arbitrary, useless way of moderating.

Yup you've got it @Jellycatspyjamas