A’Level disasters 😔😣

[OverTheRainbow88]

Any other schools been majorly hit?

@cantkeepawayforever

Yes, that is what has happened in the grammar schools by me. Meanwhile the "comprehensive" schools have received a higher proportion of A/A than usual.*

I wonder whether this is what happens when the last 3 years' average gives a very small percentage for, say, A*, equating to e.g. 0.5 of a pupil each year, or perhaps 1.5 pupils

It may be that the algorithm 'rounded up' such scenarios. In the same way as for the 'small cohort' examples, to avoid grade inflation, the much larger numbers of A* pupils in selective schools had to be 'rounded down' for each 'rounded up' one elsewhere.

It could be something like that. I am sure that people will be analysing what has happened and we will know more in the future. Clearly it has not worked as it should do.

Our independent school have done really well. So not all schools.

@Pixxie7

Not ideal I know but surely the answer to this for them to actually take the exams in the autumn. That way there can be no controversy over the result.

This would absolutely not be fair, Pixxie. Those students will be asked questions on a subject they gave had no teaching in since March, no revision sessions, they can't do study groups, they no longer attend the settings.

Your "solution" is very naive.

I would assume that predicted grades would always be higher than actual grades, because they don't assume external conditions that negatively impact on grades e.g. illness/trauma/stress. Even stupid mistakes like not answering the right number of questions presumably wouldn't be assumed in a predicted grade.

Any algorithm designed to recreate 2019 grades would have to include the effect of external conditions that reduce grades, but how can that be fair?

@MoreListeningLessChatting

Our independent school have done really well. So not all schools.

That's what people are saying! If a school has done better than previous years and others have done much worse then the standardisation has been applied unfairly.

@merrymouse this is true but Centre Assessed Grades shouldn’t be

Even then I don't understand how you could account fairly for e.g.

"probably one of our Eng Lit students will break up with their first girlfriend in June and they will make a complete mess of their A-levels".

or

"probably 2 of our students will have glandular fever and this will reduce their grades".

According to AQA

"The centre assessment grade is the teacher's professional judgement of the most likely grade a student would have achieved if exams had gone ahead.
It should be based on a range of evidence including mock exams, non-exam assessment, homework assignments and any other record of student performance over the course of study."

A teacher can only take account of their student's school performance, not events that are likely to happen every year, but that could happen to any student.

This is just going to encourage more parents to lie and cheat to get their kids into the best state schools.
There is little point in trying to encourage parents to send their kids to the local low performing comp, when they would be at a disadvantage, despite being hardworking , intelligent students

I would assume that predicted grades would always be higher than actual grades, because they don't assume external conditions that negatively impact on grades e.g. illness/trauma/stress. Even stupid mistakes like not answering the right number of questions presumably wouldn't be assumed in a predicted grade.

They also don’t account for students having a great day. Most students get what you think they will. A few will do better, a few will do worse.

@areyoubeingserviced

This is just going to encourage more parents to lie and cheat to get their kids into the best state schools. There is little point in trying to encourage parents to send their kids to the local low performing comp, when they would be at a disadvantage, despite being hardworking , intelligent students

Actually, what seems to have happened locally is that SMALL sixth forms - including those at low performing schools, UTCs, and very small minor private schools - have done well, and those at LARGE sixth forms (of all types) have done not as well as usual. Some larger private schools have still done well, but I wonder whether this is in subjects with smaller cohorts - e.g. classics, some languages, which they can afford to offer - rather than overall.

I have been in school today as am a teacher and have a 6th form tutor group, and do been counselling and advising for those who missed the grades for uni offers.
It is weird and inexplicable. Some have gone down, but others up -boy increased from CAG D to B for example.
So winners and losers, as every year, but bitterer for not having the exam to rationalise the outcome.
However, unis are flexible. Two of mine missed their grades, but I discussed with the pupil what they should say in the call to the uni. One of them then got into her uni - verbal offer (a mock was higher that the calculated 'result'. The other could not get through as that uni is not taking calls till Monday (staff wfh) so hope our preparation will yield a good result then.

They also don’t account for students having a great day.

I don't think many external factors can significantly improve performance - the difference would be be caused by the teacher underestimating a pupil's ability, which is a different issue.

@popcornlover

Weren’t you all demanding the schools went into lockdown though?

What did you expect?

No

We weren’t all demanding that schools went into lockdown

Ridiculous question

Gavin Williamson really has to resign.

That would be the honourable course of action, but members of this Government are much more inclined to brazen it out.

I don't think many external factors can significantly improve performance

Every year I’ve taught there have been 3 or 4 students who smashed it, somewhat unexpectedly.

DS did his mocks with a fractured wrist (one finger typing written answers on a laptop and missing out the graph questions), so his mock grades (CDD) are lower than his expected final grades (BBC). His Given Grades (DDD) were lower than his mock grades, but we can only appeal the one he got a C in at mocks. If he had been unable to sit final exams any other year, his injury would have been taken into account in predicting a grade, but this year not so much.

High achieving comp with some downgrading, about 25% by 1 grade.
I am most surprised that most students know their CAGs (which are most definitely different to UCAS predictions) to compare against.
We did not tell our students at all. In fact as a teacher I do not know the final CAGs submitted for my students only what I put forward. They then went through 2 strict moderation's, one in subject, one whole school. I do not know what the outcome was.

The Ed Sec is needed to be the focus of the shitstorm that’s likely next week. Then I predict they’ll jettison him In Sep. So agonising to see the results today; just as worried about my year 11s next Thursday.

Every year I’ve taught there have been 3 or 4 students who smashed it, somewhat unexpectedly.

That isn't what I'm talking about.

I agree that some pupils will always do better, and some pupils worse than expected.

However, there will also always be external non- educational factors that will impact on performance - illness, bereavement, being made homeless, drugs etc.

I can think of external, non educational, factor that would reduce an expected B to an E or a U, but not any that would increase a U to a B. I would therefore expect predicted grades to be higher than actual grades, because no teacher will have randomly adjusted for family tragedy in their predicted grades.

However, if the awarding boards use statistics from previous years to create an algorithm, those factors will necessarily be included - but is that fair?

I think this pandemic has exposed the serious limitation of statistical modeling, if nothing else.

The problem isn't the effectiveness of statistical modelling. The adjustment of these grades has done exactly what it was supposed to - make this year's exams results reasonable compared to previous years.
The issue is people not understanding statistics and/or using them inappropriately.
They've been used inappropriately here as it was never going to result in fair grades on an individual level, even if nationally it looks reasonable.

GCSEs are going to be a total sh*tstorm if today is anything to go by 😩

But it doesn't look reasonable nationally.

Highest ever % of top grades, with private schools having a greater increase than state schools.

The problem isn't the effectiveness of statistical modelling though, that's true. Exams were never meant to be graded via statistical modelling - it could never be used fairly and accurately.

@DayB1Day

What about the kids who were away in mocks or had a breakdown/ wobble as first time in proper exam conditions which is what they’re used for. They’re screwed aren’t they.

Yes. DD comes into that category.

GCSEs are going to be a total shtstorm if today is anything to go by*

Yes, I agree.