Rushing to buy property in London

[laukuk]

archive.is/LRYqZ
"Hong Kongers eye UK property as they weigh escape routes British homes are relatively cheap for city residents unnerved by new security law"

Turned 40 but still renting in London, I was planning to keep an eye on the property prices until q4 this year if it fall down because of the pandemic... but now I am actively approaching agent and wanna buy asap...

I would treat these kind of sensationalist headlines with a pinch of salt. Hong Kongers are not falling over themselves trying to come to the UK. They live in a vibrant economy, albeit impacted by what’s going on at the moment. Do not make your plans based on Hong Kong related news. There are other indicators which are far more relevant, such as Brexit, economic recover post Covid 19 etc.

It comes with concrete figures, don't think this is sensational.

I personally doubt London real estate such as regular sub £2m to first time £0.5m buys are pricing in future potential market volatility given UK EU hard WTO default no deal Brexit and medium term Covid fluctuations. And this is despite the UK government always favouring fiscal monetary policies for maintenance of high residential house prices over addressing fundamentals due to house builders artificial supply limitations.

All HKers with the financial means always prefer Singapore or Taipei or even Hongcouver or Sydney over London unless just for top UK university undergraduate degrees and professional qualifications or post graduate advance research.

Mainland China is about to block the UK visa and potential UK BNO citizenship route anyway citing the usual interference in domestic affairs nonsense. China is rapidly blatantly reinterpreting the PRC UK Joint Declaration or simply ignoring the 50 year one country two systems as simply put the current China is not the old one back in 1997.

UK with Brexit will show its true colours and relative reduced strength if US does not offer any tangible support and Germany/France does not play nicely as possibly in spite of Brexit and other internal EU issues. I doubt the Anglo sphere of former colonies will be massively supportive of a non EU UK and also the Scots are happy to Scotxit to leave London, south east England along with industrial Midlands and north to keep UK (excluding Scotland) afloat.

All the above is just my guesstimate as London property prices tend to only follow one general long term upwards projection despite a few blips along the way. Make sure you spend wisely and take into account new Covid preferred requirements and local demographics as politics and suppressed historical wrongs and anger has come back as a Covid fallout. Luckily we do not in UK have select American style disfunctionality. Well not unless there is shortly mass unemployment and world record Covid fatalities. Both are possibilities given UK general public pandemic behaviour norms as distinctive with most developed nations.

Finally if US, EU and East Asian corporations still have faith in HK then there is possibly still a few good international business potential years left in HK as the regional business centre and bridge into the mainland market. Singapore may have other ideas though and look likely to capitalise on HK’s current forte.

The first example is someone who wants to buy in Kent with a possible investment property in Glasgow. The second example doesn't give a "target" destination and doesn't mention London.

I genuinely believe the government are keen to go for a no deal Brexit and turn the U.K. into the Singapore of the west. The finance sector won’t even pretend to play by normal European rules, it will be a giant offshore hedge fund.

Expect the price of housing in London to increase following Brexit (I believe those who think all office workers will be working from home 5 days a week forever aren’t belong realistic and thus people will still need to be within manageable commuting distance of work). The Hong Kongers probably expect this too.

I work in this industry and I've seen one new London scheme flying off the shelves in the last month. Best and quickest sales ever or something. I was surprised!

Not wishing to side track this conversation but in terms of UK Brexit I am guessing there is the obvious desire to maintain the all important wealth and tax revenue generating as well as strategic competitive advantage of the whole financial markets and associated high level professional services sector. This along with innovation in fin tech and other specialists sectors will offer the City a fighting chance based on solid decades of experience and development of high level expertise. This you simply can't duplicate overnight in say Frankfurt or Paris. There is possibly a race to the bottom in terms of preferential tax and laws to complete with other global and regional financial hubs. Arguably financial city expertise, legal arbitration etc is the only Brand Brextania that is highly coveted by other nations. Our high tech innovation and high level low volume value added manufacturing and design is not bad but that unlike capital markets is pretty mobile and footlose (eg to Silicon Valley etc) compared to the location specific regulatory rules and English common law for complex corporate grade business transactions and litigation giving the City continued strategic capabilities.

Back to London residential housing markets - there is always a perpetual deliberate under supply. Large house builders still rule the game and dictate the markets to a certain extent despite (and possibly because of) best efforts of relatively complementary political Conservative ideology. Are sales in London really picking up? Is this for small UK and global individual investors or are local people really moving up the property chain given anxious and unknown potential economic volatilities? Are overseas investors targeting London eg usual suspects of Far Eastern, Russian and Gulf States? I understand mid to heavy discounting (though obviously commercial sensitivity and taboo) is still a thing for cash investors forward financing of off plan forward sales for overpriced over hyped luxury sky boxes with all the usual sense of destination community trimmings. Hypothetically if you had a spare audit friendly US$ 1-2m not earring any investment interest return, I truly doubt you will roll the dice on London at this moment. Possibly only for a super sought high demand bullet proof micro location.

Just some humble thoughts from someone neutral and experienced in the international City game with modest little knowledge of the usual global grade business hubs. Caveat this is a discussion as happy to hear your views especially if they differ massively. I could well be talking crap but hope not!

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia

I personally doubt London real estate such as regular sub £2m to first time £0.5m buys are pricing in future potential market volatility given UK EU hard WTO default no deal Brexit and medium term Covid fluctuations. And this is despite the UK government always favouring fiscal monetary policies for maintenance of high residential house prices over addressing fundamentals due to house builders artificial supply limitations.

All HKers with the financial means always prefer Singapore or Taipei or even Hongcouver or Sydney over London unless just for top UK university undergraduate degrees and professional qualifications or post graduate advance research.

Mainland China is about to block the UK visa and potential UK BNO citizenship route anyway citing the usual interference in domestic affairs nonsense. China is rapidly blatantly reinterpreting the PRC UK Joint Declaration or simply ignoring the 50 year one country two systems as simply put the current China is not the old one back in 1997.

UK with Brexit will show its true colours and relative reduced strength if US does not offer any tangible support and Germany/France does not play nicely as possibly in spite of Brexit and other internal EU issues. I doubt the Anglo sphere of former colonies will be massively supportive of a non EU UK and also the Scots are happy to Scotxit to leave London, south east England along with industrial Midlands and north to keep UK (excluding Scotland) afloat.

All the above is just my guesstimate as London property prices tend to only follow one general long term upwards projection despite a few blips along the way. Make sure you spend wisely and take into account new Covid preferred requirements and local demographics as politics and suppressed historical wrongs and anger has come back as a Covid fallout. Luckily we do not in UK have select American style disfunctionality. Well not unless there is shortly mass unemployment and world record Covid fatalities. Both are possibilities given UK general public pandemic behaviour norms as distinctive with most developed nations.

Finally if US, EU and East Asian corporations still have faith in HK then there is possibly still a few good international business potential years left in HK as the regional business centre and bridge into the mainland market. Singapore may have other ideas though and look likely to capitalise on HK’s current forte.

that's sound terrible... how they are going to block it

I work in major banks and moved to hk for a while....now back to uk... and until recently quite a number of colleagues in hk are requesting to relocate to uk with work visa... but due to covid head count are freezed so we cannot promise anything... there might be head count cut soon...the situation doesn't look too optimistic in hk....

as hk is a financial hub, lots of people work in finance/bank... easiest for them is to get a job in London and live nearby.... similar to British people they want to own a property instead of renting so almost all the hk colleagues I know do own apartments unless for fresh grads who don't have enough deposit... they consider owning a place to be success... if owning multiple places that will be a great success and goal for many of them... we keep talking about property in lunch time...

my concern is based on my connections overseas, not simply a news headline... but ft report I would say is accurate, you might have similar observations if you working in banking with branches/office in hk...

@laukuk

If this does not offend you I can make an educated guess as to your dilemma or people in your situation. I could be absolutely wrong but I am assuming you are either a regular indigenous UK citizen so HK ex pat or a BBC UK and HK SAR ID holder possibly. Maybe even UK BNO which is contentious as to certainty because obviously PRC does not recognise dual or multiple citizenship (or than PRC HK or PRC Macao).

Irrespective of the above HKers always play the residential owner occupier game as real estate is king and the only asset worth investing with direct tangible benefits. Possibly this is due the very globally unique HK property market which essentially makes any thing outside of Monaco cheap per unit square foot costs. London is therefore "affordable" per square foot pricing (not necessarily true value) when you compare Mid Levels or Causeway Bay to say TfL Zones 1&2 west and north London more desirable City grade locations. Owing to sky high corporate rental markets it possibly makes it ideal when possible to purchase (including super cheap mortgage securitisation) and take a medium to long term view on disposal or future upgrade.

Hong Kong politically is currently beyond belief but hypothetically relatively predictable given the events of recent years as arguably the locals have pushed the new owners too far as it was made easy for them to impose legal changes citing national security concerns. We all know the score and true strategic motives as Shanghai and Greater Bay areas take a further more leading roles for PRC as HK's pales into less strategic importance.

As mainland Chinese continue capital flight and asset diversification, safe haven convertibility and liquidity into overseas areal estate - HKers are hatching pre 97 style exit guarantee strategies. UK with Brexit may not necessarily be that utopia unfortunately as UK professionals with independent means are thinking along the same lines for similar off shore reasons.

Just some further thoughts...

Hong Kong: China says it will not recognise UK overseas passports

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/30/hong-kong-china-says-it-will-not-recognise-uk-overseas-passports

news.sky.com/story/this-is-for-my-children-hong-kongers-prepare-to-seize-uk-offer-of-a-new-life-12039737

'This is for my children': Hong Kongers prepare to seize UK offer of a new life

An immigration expert says there's been a surge in demand, with the visa offer massively cutting the cost of moving to the UK.