To think a third of the class leaving is a lot?

[ThinkAboutItTomorrow]

8 kids have left this year.

In reception there were 30, only 12 of them will join year 4. At the start of year 3 the class was down to 24. Of these 3 left before lockdown and another 5 (so far) have left this week.

It's an oversubscribed (in reception), 'outstanding' rated state school.

Everyone who's left has a reason, there is a bit of 'state till 8' but more leaving London.

IABU - this is normal and just how it is in London
IANBU - this is worrying and a bit odd

But if it is odd, is it a sign the school isn't all it's cracked up to be or that the Brexit / COVID London exodus is brutal? Or something else?

Is anyone else seeing a similar shift, or is it just us?

I don't think that's strange in London at all. Big international communities coming and going, families moving for more space/closer to work, private school places opening. I'd be much more worried if you lived in Devon, but London? Nah.

Our school has gone from three form entry to two form entry because families are moving out of the borough. About half because they can't afford to live in the area anymore (outer London) and the other half because they felt so unwelcome in the UK after the Brexit vote (I work in an area with a high proportion of Polish people). It's a shame ☹

Fair enough, I didn't see it coming and 2 of my DDs best friends have left. One very suddenly during lockdown moving back home.

I'm not sure if it's good for DD to get used to change or if it's leaving her feeling insecure in her friendships.

To be fair we're having the 'move out of London' convo a lot more since lockdown and WFH so I can't really complain!

Fair enough, I didn't see it coming and 2 of my DDs best friends have left. One very suddenly during lockdown moving back home.

I'm not sure if it's good for DD to get used to change or if it's leaving her feeling insecure in her friendships.

To be fair we're having the 'move out of London' convo a lot more since lockdown and WFH so I can't really complain!

That is quite high pupil mobility, even for a London school, and especially a good one. I taught at a very popular Islington school and we were considered to have fairly high mobility but it was still less than you’re describing.

But I think, like you say, there’s definitely a shift beginning to happen. We are childless (for now) but are moving to fiancé’s home country next year. Our lovely Polish neighbours and their children moved to Netherlands in February and we have close friends (Portuguese and Finnish) who are in the middle of relocating so that’s 5 children left/leaving in 2020. Times this by the size of London and I guess it will begin to add up.

I hope your DD doesn’t find the change too difficult and look on the positive side, smaller class sizes are definitely a good thing.

I've noticed it more so this year, 4 gone from dds class.

I'm sure I read that in 2019 more 30 somethings particularly with small dc left then ever before & some inner London schools are undersubscribed

Makes me worry I should be leaving before it becomes too expensive!

This is fairly normal in my sons primary school. In my ds1's class 7 of them stayed from the beginning of reception to the end of year 6. There seems to be a lot of moving house. Also some people move their child to a school that has better wrap around care.

Generally sounds like we're on the high end of normal rather than very strange.

I've not noticed this level of flux before in London. Maybe it's a life stage thing and I'm just hitting the 'moving out' part.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/one-million-young-workers-set-to-leave-london-before-turning-33-123119993.html?guccounter=1&gucereferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guceereferrersig=AQAAABuJ4YMATK528YigntUxZI1OIDA86S-TMkinwaim0QpQqH2pcjRsQAZx-rgHaBa7NQeNOZFJebptVu2Pshfkl2nkoVkM7wMcK9g8CcazU3u9ILeNam2Vv999HNQza2GNwEECUgshhEr3-M5LLT93ZiKnX6McDZUcYDegB0ll_vEf

There's also Covid & an increase in remote working now.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/29/tired-of-london-thousands-flee-capital-for-a-quieter-life

this is the article I read last year.

Thanks @poppydull that's interesting and resonates.

The tricky thing for the planning is that people seem to stay for the first few years so the schools are oversubscribed and then slowly empty!

Is it a pre planning move for some for secondary schools?

Sounds similar to ours. We’re oversubscribed in reception - literally a 5 minute catchment area, people 7 minutes walk away not getting in. By year 4 we have empty spaces that aren’t filled. I think it’s just the nature of the population - lots of flats and small houses which suit people with young children but then lots of us move further out.

@Noodledoodledoo yes I think it is people moving for secondary. Essentially those with older siblings are moving to give them year 5 or 6 to settle in primary out of London so they are ready for secondary.

We’re London zone 2 and I think that sounds a bit high compared to our school, but there has been at least 2 children leaving every year since nursery. (And 2 joining). It’ll be interesting to see if there is a big exodus next year. I know I’m tempted!

There's was a lot of movement at my DD's outstanding London state primary. I was really surprised but other parents who had already been through it with older children said it was standard. She's in secondary now - another outstanding, and movement has slowed to a trickle - two leavers in her form in two years. I do think it's the way of things in London.

We’ve had 4 out of 20 reception leave (small village school) - all for differing reasons but do find it unnerving! Seems weird to take them out having only just started but I think some are taking advantage of the long ‘time off’ to justify a move with other siblings to combined schools.

There's was a lot of movement at my DD's outstanding London state primary. I was really surprised but other parents who had already been through it with older children said it was standard. She's in secondary now - another outstanding, and movement has slowed to a trickle - two leavers in her form in two years. I do think it's the way of things in London.

My son’s primary one form entry primary had a large amount of movement but there was no single reason, some left to go to schools that catered for their emerging special needs, some had parents who were from abroad and returned, there was one family tragedy, military family came and went, moved areas for a bigger house, positioning for secondary. Between nursery and year 6 about 50% had changed. Outstanding school, but even that doesn’t mean it suits everyone.

Reception pupil movement at DS primary school was due to various factors. A traveller family moving on; parents in the military getting new posting or leaving the military altogether; parents jobs changing. It's currently the most over subscribed in the authority. We also have a massive amount of house building going on locally. One school has opened in the last couple of years and another to open in September.

Probably because young families cannot afford to live in London when even well paying jobs will not buy you a crappy bedsit in a shit area. In a few years almost all London schools will either be partly empty or have completely transient, ever-changing populations, all so that one selfish generation can retain their large, empty, overpriced houses.

High house prices are the main reason why so society is so fucked all so that the Tories can keep their votes.

We're planning 'state until 8', now I think about it. It seems a bit of a waste of money going private before then.

@mothertruck3r there's only one family in this class who are moving out to be able to afford to buy.
A couple are moving out for bigger houses.
Then it's 'state till 8' and leaving the UK.

I suspect London house prices will accelerate the shift though as generation rent get (more) disenchanted. Or else there'll be a price correction. But been hearing that forever!

Obviously anecdotal but out of my NCT group of 6, there is only me left. Some had very healthy budgets 1.2m etc but just actually wanted space for that! I'm really only still here as I'm a Londoner so it makes sense to be close to family.