What do you think the global water and food situation will be like 10 to 20 years from now?

[AbsentmindedWoman]

I remember a knowledgable acquaintance discussing climate change in depth in a very sobering way - it was the first time I'd heard much about the 'water wars' that would be problematic one day. I was young and immature and talking about 2030 or 2050 seemed ages away.

Realised with a shock that those chats were a decade ago and time whirs past at warp speed the older you get!

What will things be like in another ten or twenty years, in terms of food and water supply around the world, do you think?

What will be the first effects seen in a geopolitical sense?

Anyone have any thoughts?

I dont know OP but it frightens me. I think poorer, developing countries will be hit first before wealthier countries. I believe droughts and food shortages and the deaths linked to these will become more common.

I think water will be the cause of the next big war; it was already part of the reason for the Syrian crisis. Those in westernised countries will be able to buffer against resource depletion for a bit, but it will hit all of us eventually.

It will be worse in a decade, because people aren't willing to make the necessary changes promptly (which include not flying, driving, and eating animal products). Though even if everyone did that tomorrow, we'd still need to mitigate what is already locked into the system.

Water scarcity is almost always involved in conflict, even when it doesn't seem to be.

I read many years ago that Canada owns the largest fresh water rights in the world, and would thus become a super power. I haven’t looked into it to confirm, but it always stayed with me.

Water shortages/conflicts have always seemed to me to be the curse of the future. How can the exponentially-rising global population possibly have access to safe water supplies? Look what is happening in parts of South America, where water is owned by big cartels. What will happen to the Mid-West of the USA when the aquifers dry up? The already almost-uninhabitable parts of Africa? I feel so blessed to be living in energy-, food- and water-rich NZ, but the future is so bleak for so many. It frightens and depresses me.

Just bumping as I’d be interested in hearing more about this topic.

2/3rds of the planet's surface is water. Unless mankind forgets how to distill, I think that the global catastrophic predictions are, how do I put this politely, a load of hooeey.

Could there by droughts and floods? Of course.

Disquieted but isn't most of the surface seawater, and therefore not suitable for drinking or agriculture? Yes, desalination is possible but it requires a lot of energy, which is expensive

I read something in the economist about how a lot of our current conflicts are occurring in water/heat stressed places, mainly around the Equator. The premise was that there is a connection between displaced people (young men) who could no longer earn a living from the scorched land, moving to cities and getting seduced by political/religious movements... leading to conflict. So in a sense, we can already see resource wars. I thought it was rather an interesting and obvious connection. It won’t be long before it becomes more obvious. Also, places like China are buying agrarian land in the US and Australia (Stated owned companies) to hedge their resources, which will cause strife later on. Best to move to the wet/cool parts of the world now I’d say!

@Disquieted1

2/3rds of the planet's surface is water. Unless mankind forgets how to distill, I think that the global catastrophic predictions are, how do I put this politely, a load of hooeey.

Could there by droughts and floods? Of course.

Distill enough water for agriculture and industry?

The oil industry uses a ton of water too but it wouldnt' be a bad thing if they had to pack it in.

But places like Arizona or California, depend on their aquifers, or in some cases water piped in from rivers or other locations, to survive. California provides vegetables for much of North America. Some of the great rivers in the US are drying up and severely polluted. Whole cities and agriculture is dependent on those rivers.

A lot of poor countries are going to struggle with clean water and desertification in many areas will continue.

We need to switch to a sustainable model of agriculture, that is soil preserving. That will look different in different climates, by nature it will be a local thing that has to support local people. We can see right now that a global agricultural system isn't resilient, and it tends to lead to land exploitation as well.

Goosefoot

In the nicest possible way, I don't think that you appreciate scale.
On a local level things will change. No doubt. On a global level, there will be more freshwater, not less. But even this will be tiny compared to the vast scale of the oceans.

The oceans are so big that we can't even understand how big they are. What this planet does not lack is H2O.

@Disquieted1

A genuine question - if we don't lack H2O, do you believe that every nation who would need access to the oceans would be able to access it?

Surely landlocked countries / those without the necessary "rights" would provoke conflict if they started to operate in foreign waters. And even if other countries had rights, would they initially have the funds / technology to know what to do with it once they got there?

[quote GinDaddyRedux]@Disquieted1

A genuine question - if we don't lack H2O, do you believe that every nation who would need access to the oceans would be able to access it?

Surely landlocked countries / those without the necessary "rights" would provoke conflict if they started to operate in foreign waters. And even if other countries had rights, would they initially have the funds / technology to know what to do with it once they got there?[/quote]
No I don't.
However the discussion was not about landlocked countries having access to water (ignoring rivers, lakes, rainfall etc that have happened in landlocked countries for millennia) the question was about the global dilemma.
On a global scale, there is no dilemma.

@Disquieted1

Goosefoot

In the nicest possible way, I don't think that you appreciate scale.
On a local level things will change. No doubt. On a global level, there will be more freshwater, not less. But even this will be tiny compared to the vast scale of the oceans.

The oceans are so big that we can't even understand how big they are. What this planet does not lack is H2O.

I'm not really following you. First you suggest desalination - which is expensive ad takes a lot of energy, but is not a great option for producing water for agriculture or industry, which both use a lot of it.

Now where is this more fresh water coming from? What good will it do in polluted lakes, rivers, and aquifers?

Once water in some locations like California is gone, it will have knock on effects. All that food that feeds the continent will be missing - what will replace it? In many poorer nations, the people are going to have to migrate. I live in Canada, our fresh water supplies are fairly good. Good enough that the people of California have been known to cast their eyes northward.

And actually, we do know how much water is in the oceans. That's an odd thing to say.

Ach I live in Scotland we have plenty.

Already started on a small scale:

Before I retired, I worked on projects with a tech centre in India

There were a few occasions when they EMed us that they would all be working from home,
because their Indian state had a "water war" with their neighbours over a river they both used

I gather the national guards of each state would unofficially fire off a few shots and there would be street disturbances.
So people would stay home a couple of days until it was safe again to go to work.

What we in the West will notice more than small scale wars that may flare up between a few far away countries over resources:

climate refugees

I've read estimates of 200 million people over the next 30 years or so,
who will try to migrate to the West when their own countries have insufficient food or water, or are unsafe due to severe seasonal floods

I just wrote a long response that disappeared.

Anyhow:

1. The increase in liquid water will come from melting glaciers. Climate warming et al.

1. Desalination is ancient technology and cheap as chips. I've done it myself. So can you.

There is zero chance of a global water shortage. It is scientifically impossible.

From worldvision website:

Fast facts: Global water crisis
844 million people lack basic drinking water access, more than 1 of every 10 people on the planet.
Women and girls spend an estimated 200 million hours hauling water every day.
The average woman in rural Africa walks 6 kilometers every day to haul 40 pounds of water.
Every day, more than 800 children under age 5 die from diarrhea attributed to poor water and sanitation.
By 2050, at least 1 in 4 people will likely live in a country affected by chronic or recurring fresh-water shortages.
2.3 billion people live without access to basic sanitation.
892 million people practice open defecation.
One of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals aims to provide universal access to clean water and sanitation by 2030.
90% of all natural disasters are water-related.

So, es ever, it won't be the lack of the actual resource on the planet, but the power struggle over who controls access to it. Look at Syria and how controlling the access to water ignited a war. And also as ever, it will be the poor who suffer for it.

And here: www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/

As previous posters have already stated, water, as such, is not an issue. The issue is its supply and distribution.
As for food, I would hope to see a trend back to local, seasonal produce and more people growing some of their own food.
However, I can see some large, global organisations taking the "man-made" protein path and promoting this. Scientifically all very clever, but whether it is actually good for the environment (in terms of manufacturing processes) or for the humans consuming it, over a long period, is an open question.

I am surprised to read Disquiet1's opinion that desalination is a sound answer. I didn't really think it was all that practical in terms of the vast amounts needed for agriculture?

Overworked, exhausted soil is another problem that doesn't seem to have a clear solution.

I am massively unable to contribute anything meaningful to the discussion but even as uneducated as I am, I was under the impression that the problem is already happening.