To worry the impact of our lockdown will be worse long term than if we’d just lockdowned the vulnerable

[abreviation]

I think the proverbial is just about to hit the fan regarding redundancies. We have just started to receive hundreds of cvs from people who have lost their job.
It’s common knowledge how cancers are going undiagnosed and treatments delayed. God knows how many will die now needlessly.
Most other medical appointments cancelled or delayed. How many years will it take to catch up? Brain tumours missed, lazy eyes, hip displacements etc etc undiagnosed.
Education broken for loads of dc. How may dc just hanging on in there will be lost to education now. This will impact thousands of dc long term.
Struggling today with the way CV has been prioritised with no thought to anything else and the long term consequences of this.

[abreviation]

Do you think that if someone applied for a job and stated that they’ve been shielded they won’t be discriminated against? Maybe not directly but trust me there are ways to make it happen.

There was a thread last week from someone saying they couldn’t believe that “the shielded were going to be allowed to see people.”

The shielded have been infantilised by society, and have been deemed incapable of independent thought. “For their own good,” apparently

I can't work out if you think we should be trying to protect shielded people or not. Are you saying they want to be able to be treated the same as non vulnerable people ie go back to work, shopping etc? If so thats up to them isn't it but it makes a farce of the whole point of this charade.

[TitianaTitsling]

@MrsArchchancellorRidcully thanks for the iceberg diagram- very succinct!

[NowImLivinInExeter]

I’m all right Jack, eh? They are being treated as second class citizens with comments like “oh it’s only vulnerable people who die” and “They can take their chances” and the suggestion we should just lock them down for however long it takes because we need to be able to get back out to the coffee shop.

So again, what is your solution? Are you genuinely saying that the entire country should lock down because some people are more vulnerable than others to covid? And why are you assuming that I'm not vulnerable myself, nor that I have loved family who are?

[abreviation]

My previous post was for @AlternativePerspective.

[MintyMabel]

Just like Sweden who haven’t locked down then.

Not a great example. When you look at other indicators, despite their high death rate, the virus hasn’t been as widespread there, far fewer than expected with antibodies. Their low population density, even in their urban areas means the spread would be slower.

Look how New York fared prior to lockdown.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

I see no evidence whatsoever that the NHS would have been overwhelmed had we not locked down. Simple hygiene and working from home being encouraged would have done an awful lot.

You see no evidence. Thank goodness for that. You and Boris should share research notes.I expect it would be a very short conversation.

[MintyMabel]

So again, what is your solution? Are you genuinely saying that the entire country should lock down because some people are more vulnerable than others to covid? And why are you assuming that I'm not vulnerable myself, nor that I have loved family who are?

Lockdown to get R number down and open with a proper test track trace system. That appears to have been the most successful route for countries so far. I’m assuming nothing, I’m responding to your words.

[NowImLivinInExeter]

0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h

Don't you dare lump me in with Boris Johnson.

Show me the evidence that proves the NHS would have been overwhelmed without lockdown. You can't, because it doesn't exist.

[NoHardSell]

Sweden haven't said they made a mistake, in that they are still happy with their basic approach. Like everyone, they have made mistakes. Unlike everyone, they admit that. Mostly around the spread in carehomes and failing to predict, then prevent, that

Thank fuck Sweden had the balls to be grown up about it. Otherwise there really would be no nearby comparator of similar economic background to look at, and it would be easier to argue that closing schools was necessary, lockdown the only answer etc

[MintyMabel]

You can't, because it doesn't exist.

Show the evidence they wouldn’t. That doesn’t exist either. It is impossible to provide proof either way.

[attackedbycritters]

Well Sweden being a country can't speak , but their medical officer said that in hindsight they did it wrong, earlier this week

[nellodee]

Evidence that the NHS would have run out of capacity. Here are the number of deaths pre lockdown. They were doubling every 2-3 days. This is the nature of exponential growth. You can be coping at the beginning of the week and completely swamped by the end of it.

[nellodee]

Those are cumulative deaths, by the way, for the sake of clarity.

[nellodee]

Sweden has almost 10 times the amount of deaths per capita of its neighbouring countries. What if that is the Sweden effect? Not "You'll be just about as bad as the UK, even without lock down" but "You'll be 10 times worse than you would have been if you had locked down". Either model is equally plausible.

[NoHardSell]

@attackedbycritters

Well Sweden being a country can't speak , but their medical officer said that in hindsight they did it wrong, earlier this week

Oh yes very funny
No, Sweden as a country can't speak. That's what opinion polls are for. They still support their strategy
The quote, as rather misleadingly used as the headline in the guardian article above, about making mistakes is about not being perfect. This refers mainly to carehome deaths. Funnily enough, the interview has been rather jumped on by countries who want to validate their shitty lockdown as being worth it after all. If you even read the article itself above it's clear that he is still happy with the basic approach he took. (What with those being the words used and quoted in the article)
More recent article below
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/06/sometimes-feel-like-punchbag-architect-swedens-virus-model-another/

At least unlike the UK he is putting his hands up to mistakes made with carehomes

[NoHardSell]

@nellodee

Sweden has almost 10 times the amount of deaths per capita of its neighbouring countries. What if that is the Sweden effect? Not "You'll be just about as bad as the UK, even without lock down" but "You'll be 10 times worse than you would have been if you had locked down". Either model is equally plausible.

Oh yes, absolutely. I was massively in favour of early lockdown with track and trace. But, you know, we made our choices back in February then later on in March. Denmark was one of the first to lockdown. Ours is late, shit and pointless. As evidenced by Sweden who just social distanced and achieved about the same result as us. What a bunch of total tossers we are in this country. And now we think about introducing a quarantine. Just as we have one of the highest rates around. Oh yes. Totally the right time to stop people coming

[Homemadeandfromscratch]

Show me the evidence that proves the NHS would have been overwhelmed without lockdown.

the NHS is overwhelmed every single year, pretty much every single day

ambulances taking hours
appointments taking months
surgeries taking even longer to be booked
postcode lottery
no treatment or even a half-hearted attempt at treating some children cancer
GP appointments taking weeks
over-crowded communal wards with not enough toilet facility, not enough staff!

so NowImLivinInExeter on which cloud cuckoo land are you living that you are not aware of the state of the NHS at the best of time. You might not have needed any medical help whatsoever in the last 20 years, but you cannot pretend to be unaware of what is happening in front of your nose.

So you keep telling yourself a pandemic wouldn't have made any difference, we believe you

[Nonnymum]

think the 2 and a half million or so shielding should have locked down.
Well they have locked down along with everyone else and we have had 50 thousand deaths. The modelling at the beginning suggested without lockdown there would have been 500 thousand deaths.Thatwould have swamped the NHS and other services. Surely lockdown is better than that?
Sweden has not locked down and has the highest death rate in Scandinavia. Initial reaseach has also shown that it hasn't led to 'herd immunity' so most of the Swedish population are still susceptibie to it.
Countries that locked down earler are doing much better than the UK and are now able to open up more. Our problem was utbwas too little and too late.

[NowImLivinInExeter]

You might not have needed any medical help whatsoever in the last 20 years, but you cannot pretend to be unaware of what is happening in front of your nose.

I've needed a lot of medical help and still do. And it isn't happening right now as they have stopped all non essential treatment. Hth.

[FourTeaFallOut]

The modelling at the beginning suggested without lockdown there would have been 500 thousand deaths.Thatwould have swamped the NHS and other services. Surely lockdown is better than that?

You need to draw a fucking huge iceberg next to the little one up the thread for people to understand the scale of death and disease if there hadn't been a lockdown and the proportional scale of non covid casualties and deaths by this course of action.

At the very beginning of outbreaks in the uk Whitty said he'd be on the chopping block regardless because if too many died their actions would be seen as a huge under-reaction and if they were successful and too few people died it would look like colossal under-reaction. I'm not sure he was ready to be accused of both at the same time though.

[MintyMabel]

That's what opinion polls are for. They still support their strategy

The polls still show great support for NS despite the fact it’s a fucking shitshow here in Scotland.

At least unlike the UK he is putting his hands up to mistakes made with carehomes

But doing nothing to change the policy whatsoever.

[MintyMabel]

he'd be on the chopping block regardless

Absolutely true. Like the number of people saying we wasted money on Nightingale because they were barely used.

[NoHardSell]

@MintyMabel

That's what opinion polls are for. They still support their strategy

The polls still show great support for NS despite the fact it’s a fucking shitshow here in Scotland.

At least unlike the UK he is putting his hands up to mistakes made with carehomes

But doing nothing to change the policy whatsoever.

Not getting the link between my reply to some snarky poster about 'Sweden being a country can't speak' and NS?

[Nonnymum]

stopped all non essential treatment.
Maybe where you are but not here. Hospital outpatient appointments are still going ahead.
Not locking down would have made it less likely to get treatmnet for non covid illnesses anyway. Because there would have been less capacity, there would have been more Covid infections so more ICU beds would be taken by covid patients and more NHS staff would be off sick with covid.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

Sweden haven't said they made a mistake, in that they are still happy with their basic approach.

That's rubbish.