To be worried about all the economic doom & gloom

[wobblemob]

Everyday I'm reading about redundancies, future tax rises, the greatest recession ever & it scares me. Even though DH & I are still working as normal & we actually have more in our pockets I've reigned in our spending & cancelled some direct debits. I feel like I need more savings.

However I then see threads about booking holidays, have friends who have moved house even though furloughed or having home improvements and I worry I'm being over cautious & when I feel comfortable to rebook a holiday the prices will be sky high!

In my industry we are already preparing for this to take at least 5 years to recover from. We have lost one-third of our workforce. No taxpayer-funded furloughs here! I see there has been some criticism on here about how “Americans” have been protesting and demanding the lockdown be lifted. Perhaps if those in the UK didn’t have that 80% subsidy they might have a bit more compassion. It’s no wonder we are demanding an end to it here. We also don’t have anything like the safety net of the welfare state here, rightly or wrongly. I’ve lost over 60% of my income - I had the choice of a substantial pay cut or being let go. My belief has always been that any job is better than no job and so I took the pay cut on the understanding it would be temporary. I’m fortunate on the sense that I was a high warmer so the 60% cut still puts me way above the national average but many people here are struggling like never before.

Like a PP, I’m also a spender and have totally cut our spending back. We were going to replace both cars this year, we like to do that every couple of years, but we won’t be. We were also going to replace all the fencing around our property. We have a few acres so it’s a lot of fence but that’s not happening either now. If I’ve cut my spending down then things are obviously bad!

9 weeks ago we worried about our health now it's about our jobs and income,
I'm furloughed and I genuinely don't think I will have a job to go back to.

It’s not scaremongering. Pre-covid, DH’s firm were hiring. Now they have sacked a couple and are drawing up lists of who to make redundant next. None of the staff have seen this coming

I'm lucky I'm working, and if anything sadly redundancies, job losses housing reposessions mean our services are needed more than ever to support those effected by the above.

But...

I'm planning for a ressesion, as a lone parent that's not easy. But I'm cutting back where I can to top up my tiny savings account. I live in Local Authority Housing so my home I need not worry about thank God, but I know we will see fuel price increases, food price increases, utility cost increases due to inflation. So I want more.kf a.safety net in my savings account for when some months get tight.

Is it in June or july that we have to decide whether we ask the EU for an extension or leave with no deal ? Dread to think what effect that will have on everything else...

DP has been furloughed and thinks he will be made redundant. He’s been looking for a new job but there has hardly been anything advertised and a lot of recruiters have been furloughed - although things are picking up slightly and slowly as of this week. He’s seen a job advertised that he can apply for and he’s had calls from 2 recruiters this week. The problem is, there’s going to be loads of competition for every job he applies for.

Between how badly the UK has handled COVID, and with Brexit still to come to pass, I think it'll be an unprecedented recession. Am not convinced the country will ever recover.

A friend of mine was made redundant in Feb. She was at final interview for 4 roles by March - all of them went on hold and there has been nothing for her to apply to. She falls between the cracks as she isn’t eligible for furlough but the lockdown is preventing her from working.

I find it incredible how many people will hop up and down over an intangible virus they’ve been told about by the media and yet will completely shrug off the after effects of the whole world being paused for 8 weeks.

“Oh it’ll be fine”

“It’s scaremongering”

“The economy will recover”

Heads in the sand all over the place.

Depression not Recession.

I too think we're in for a long, hard recession that will take 3-5 years to recover from. DH and I are on big paycuts (20% and 15%) and DH will be made redundant in August ☹️. We've not bought anything other than food since lockdown started and this will remain the same until DH is able to find a new role. We have two young DD's so will buy necessities for them and that's it. My reduced salary does not cover our monthly outgoings and our savings will only prop us up for so long.

If I’ve stopped spending I dread to think what the savers of this world are doing

I am a saver and I am pretty much doing exactly what I did before.

I'm extremely worried about the economy. We've not really saved any money during lockdown as any gains we'd potentially made were wiped out by increased food costs and unavoidable incidentals. We had to buy a printer! Had lived without one for about 10 years by either printing (with permission) at work or by paying at the library. Neither was an option for us now and we needed it for home learning.

We have savings but they were intended for a refurbishment. Now we won't spend that until we can work out what the situation will be with our jobs. Both still working, both working extra hours in fact. No idea about job security.

Our plans are to reduce all of our debt, except our mortgage. It's fixed for another 4.5 years. We were over paying but have stopped doing that just now and moving those overpayments into savings. Once we've built up a buffer well periodically move from savings into mortgage. This way we'll have the benefit of savings but can still overpay on an adhoc basis.

I think the best thing we can all do is to find a balance between saving and spending. Spending to help the economy recover and to save jobs. Saving to protect ourselves.

I wonder what that sort of spending would look like in terms of how much and where?

We've also got (and have maintained for years) a very accurate spreadsheets of all our regular expenditures and entries for irregular expenditure. We track the averages of irregular expenditure and account for them monthly. Based on these spreadsheets I know exactly which areas we can trim immediately. We regularly review our utilities and insurances so unfortunately no savings to be made there.

We hope to be free of our credit cards in 3 payments time. Then it will be save, save, save but also spend when we can.

Ugh. I worry so much about other people.

Yes the economic impact is going to be pretty horrendous. But like Covid, it will not impact equally on everyone. So the big lie is 'we're all in this together', but actually that's not at all true for either Covid (where the risk to many is tiny) or the lockdown (where the risk to many is large, but which is making a lot of money for the few).

YANBU. My role is funded by a large charity who are anticipating losing up to 50% of their income. We have secured funding for another year but that could change depending how bad things get. The charity sector in general is suffering hugely with shops closed and no fundraising revenue coming in. I have two ds's who will be looking for jobs shortly and it's going to be very hard until things improve which I believe they will but could take time and that's assuming there's not a second wave coming.

Quite a depressing thread I started.

I thought my job was fairly secure but I’ve just looked through the new sales figures. March was pretty bad, April appalling and I can’t see May being much better. We sell long term contracts so the impact of low new sales won’t hit us financially for 6 months or so but it’s a worry.

Sadie hop up and down over an intangible virus

The virus may be 'intangible' but its effects are very tangible indeed.

Yes, of course we're heading for a recession. How could we not be? A lot of businesses will not survive this and whole industries may not recover.

I'm hoping the government will have enough common sense to extend the Brexit transition period, but am not optimistic. If Covid has been an earthquake, a no-deal Brexit would be a massive after-shock and while other countries will be focusing on recovery, we'll be traipsing around weakened economies looking for a good trade deal.

I'm not particularly worried for us as I think DHs job is fairly safe and I was dithering about stopping work anyway (I'd earn less than nursery plus afterschool club fees)

I wonder what that sort of spending would look like in terms of how much and where?

Thats interesting, in lockdown we've saved money on nursery fees and swimming lessons, but spent more on food and toys/educational stuff (paper, glue etc). I think a lot of people will spend more time doing outdoor hobbies next year (eg, I dont fancy soft play anytime soon) so outdoor clothing and equipment will do well. Lots of people are going to wfh more so they might buy desks and chairs once they tire of working at their dining tables.

There's just huge variation in how people are affected by this. Some sectors have evaporated and might not ever be back the same. Others are thriving: there's always money to be made in a recession. There are people who are in really precarious positions, there are people who are on set pension income which won't change, there are people working from home on the same money but lower outgoings, there are people who have jobs like teaching and nursing who aren't going to be able to wfh but do have stability... so you end up with really different attitudes, even before you take into account personality traits.

I can't help thinking (more pessimism, I'm afraid) that the ones who are less affected will have little sympathy for those most affected. I expect to see lots more benefit bashing threads in the future.

It's going to have a huge impact and isn't scaremongering. If people think the NHS is poorly funded now, it'll be stripped even further along with other public sector services.

I am already seeing massive impacts of the recession, and this is just the beginning. Those who think it isn't coming and it's just scaremongering are either burying their head in the sand or ignoring every single economist in the world!

In my experience the majority of people faced with such situations think that "it won't happen to them". It will be someone else's job, someone else's business, someone else's life...

I really wish it weren't true, but every single prediction is that this is going to be the recession to end all recessions. I am 62. I have been through them before. I have never seen one hit so hard and so fast. Yes, coronavirus plays a big part. But people seem to forget that we were already teetering on the edge before anyone had heard of coronavirus.

I am not a selfish person, so I don't mean this in a nasty way, but I am so glad I am my age. I have a house and garden in a nice area, mortgage free. I have no debts. I have a job that pays relatively well although I am by no means rich. And I have a secured pension and savings. I look at people who are younger and I worry what will happen to them. Because it is going to be hard on them. Really hard. And that is before they end up paying the bill that will emerge from coronavirus, because the national debt will have to be managed, and it can only be managed by destroying all those public services everyone is currently clapping for.

Thanks God I'm not young any more.