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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

People talking about houses dropping 30%

456 replies

ayvian · 15/05/2020 12:23

AIBU to think they should shut up.

Banks are still lending, furlough has saved millions of jobs and no one is going to sell their biggest asset at a 30% loss. It just won't happen all it will create is a mexican standoff that will freeze the market until buyers get a sense of reality. We want to move, but not that desperate to accept a loss of what something was worth a few weeks ago. We'll hold on. It's wishful thinking that anyone can get a bargain right now

OP posts:
Justanotherlurker · 15/05/2020 23:37

As someone said, if you attach your social standing to the value of your house, you are in for a big fall

It's been an ingrained thing for decades now, a lot of people wanting to appear political and totally sad face about relative poverty etc while expecting their own house to rise in value.

OneandTwenty · 15/05/2020 23:37

If a fall in house prices is driven by a fall in demand due to unemployment, then the fall in demand brings down rents as well.

why would there be a fall in demand? It might be wishful thinking, but rents won't just drop down.

GoatyGoatyMingeMinge · 15/05/2020 23:44

If a fall in house prices is driven by a fall in demand due to unemployment, then the fall in demand brings down rents as well.

why would there be a fall in demand? It might be wishful thinking, but rents won't just drop down.

Hi @OneandTwenty

We're looking at the biggest recession in modern history, accompanied inevitably by huge unemployment. There will be a fall in demand!

knowingmenotyou · 15/05/2020 23:51

No one knows how much house prices will drop at the moment. It could be 30%, less or possibly even more.

We don't know how many jobs will be lost but there definitely will be some losses. It is nonsensical to say that furlough has saved millions of jobs. Time will tell.

It's not buyers that need to get a sense of reality. Clearly some sellers do. Why is it wishful thinking that some people may be able to get a bargain during a massive recession?

You may be very lucky and not need to move but not everyone will be as fortunate as you. You may be very lucky and have a tiny mortgage on a house of way above average value, so small that you can pay in on MNW jobs but others are not.

dibble15 · 15/05/2020 23:52

It's been an ingrained thing for decades now, a lot of people wanting to appear political and totally sad face about relative poverty etc while expecting their own house to rise in value.
True dat!

jimmyjammy001 · 16/05/2020 00:08

Prices will only drop once the government stop paying people's mortgages off through furlough and the mortgage holidays stop and people don't have jobs to go back to, as for rents they will only come down to whatever the current housing benefit is set at as whether you have a job or not the amount will not go below a certain amount.
The government will probably interfere again with some prop up scheme to keep prices artificially high like they did with various help to buy schemes and shared ownership, banks will probably give more mortgage holidays and lower repayments so they do not have to repossess houses. A 30% drop would be good for the younger generation, in my area it would only bring prices back to 2016 prices, home buyers will not sell at a loss unless forced to, to many relying on it for their pension

PickAChew · 16/05/2020 00:12

A dip is inevitable. Already ltv ratios are shite so it'll be a while before New buyers without massive savings can get on board.

sestras · 16/05/2020 00:46

I had an email from an estate agent about the market saying they expect a dip of between 15-30% but should pick up by summer 2021.

ChandlerIsTheBestFriend · 16/05/2020 00:47

at the moment we’re doing well out of it and our monthly payment keep going down

Save the extra!! Stick it away in another account and don’t touch it. Use it when the rates go back up.

AlexisCarringtonColbyDexter · 16/05/2020 08:06

Three houses in my road went under offer during lockdown. No change in price.

Elmerrrrrrrr · 16/05/2020 08:17

We put our flat on the market just before lockdown and obviously viewings dried up. However we had three viewings this week and now have an offer for only a few K under the asking price.

Rowantree2020 · 16/05/2020 08:24

Those who think this government won’t support the market both directly and indirectly are deluded. Sure the market will fall, but temporarily and not by the crazy amounts that some posters are predicting!

motherf88 · 16/05/2020 08:32

In relation to my posts about people downsizing for pension pots losing out, I've just thought of a very MUMSnetty (to whoever pointed out the mums part of mumsnet) example. A family member in her mid to late 50s has recently divorced and to keep her teenage children in the family home she negotiated to keep the house instead of having a claim on her ex husbands large pension pot. With the logic to that being her kids can have stability for exam years and when they move out she can downsize and release equity as she has no private pension as was a SAHM. Obviously was a risky strategy as has been rightly pointed out, but I wouldn't describe her as someone who planned to be in this situation to profit from vastly inflated property prices. Not everyone who was planning on using equity is as morally reprehensible as some posters might think.

Teateaandmoretea · 16/05/2020 08:40

OP you are making no sense at all. For people with equity who want to move it makes no difference at all because the house they are moving to is also cheaper. It is slightly inconvenient if you are looking to downsize for retirement but you’ve already had amazing property fortune and can always wait a couple of years until the worst is hopefully over anyway.

Spare a thought for the people who will be left in negative equity by this and aren’t lucky enough to have the freedom to choose.

ChrissieKeller61 · 16/05/2020 08:41

@motherf88 that was exactly my plan. Luckily I’m not named on the mortgage so I could walk away and just get 30% off something else IF the worst happened. But I don’t think it will

Teateaandmoretea · 16/05/2020 08:42

@motherf88 pension pots have been negatively impacted by this also..... so however you saved for retirement is potentially problematic.

littleblackdress04 · 16/05/2020 08:42

Those who think the government WILL support house prices are dreaming actually a we are heading for an economic calamity! The biggest recession in 300 years plus a probable no deal brexit. Holding up house prices is going to be the least of the governments worries!

Aragog · 16/05/2020 08:44

There was an article on the local news last night and they were stating that estate agents and mortgage providers are still busy. The estate agents Dh knows through work have said the same, especially in the last week.

So we shall have to see but at present the signs are good for the housing market locally at least.

Rowantree2020 · 16/05/2020 08:47

@littleblackdress04 oh the drama 🙄

littleblackdress04 · 16/05/2020 08:54

@Rowantree2020 excuse me? I’m just responding to the post and also to what is being written in all the media by economists. Why should the housing market be bailed out? I know several people who rent who are justifiable fucked off with homeowners being bailed out while they are paying half their income on rents with no hope of getting on the ladder. This idea that homeowners are special and deserve taxpayer cash is bullshit and I am a homeowner

ChrissieKeller61 · 16/05/2020 08:57

@littleblackdress04 - serious question - why do they have no hope of getting on the ladder ?

littleblackdress04 · 16/05/2020 08:57

And actually people complaining that the housing market might drop 30% is wildly distasteful when plenty of kids live in B&Bs and in expensive, unsuitable housing.

littleblackdress04 · 16/05/2020 09:00

@ChrissieKeller61 because house prices have been too expensive for many years. Expensive rents mean people can’t save the massive deposits needed. This country has a broken housing market and the fact that it’s called a ‘market’ is exactly what’s wrong. Housing is a human right. I was lucky to buy my house at the end of the 90’s when it was dirt cheap to do so. Very few have that option now without massive deposits and parebtal help. Help to buy just held up the massive Ponzi scheme that is housing in this country

OneandTwenty · 16/05/2020 09:02

At the very worst, it will mean people will just stay put. If you can't afford a mortgage, you can't afford the rent. Most of the rents are based on the mortgage needed to pay the property anyway, so they won't suddenly drop - unless you think banks will gift half or more of the interests due on the debt? I'd be happy with that Grin

New build might stay empty and developments come to an halt, making it even harder to find available properties... keeping the rental market as it is.

Home owners will be a much better position than renters. It's utter madness to wish for a property crash and a recession.

You might hope for elderly (or less elderly) people to die so their properties are put on the market so you can grab your "bargain"... each to their own

OneandTwenty · 16/05/2020 09:04

people complaining that the housing market might drop 30% is wildly distasteful when plenty of kids live in B&Bs and in expensive, unsuitable housing.

if you think a recession will benefit people already struggling, you have no idea how much shit is going to hit the fan.

People were complaining about cuts in funding for the disable/education/ NHS? That was nothing.

How can any normal human being with for that is beyond me.