Flight predictions?

[Confusedasusual78]

I realise none of us actually know for sure, but when do you ‘Think’ flights may realistically get back to normal?
I live in Portugal and my parents were meant to be here now, but it obviously was cancelled and in July (sister and her family too) for my Dd’s 2nd birthday, I’m also guessing that’s not happening.
I saw on uk news last night, they said ‘Many of us won’t be flying until next summer’
I last saw my parents in November, just before Christmas, so am feeling a little freaked out by this.
Also, my mum is late 60’s but dad 71, would they even be allowed/would it be advisable to fly or even for me to fly over then stay with them?
All they keep saying is how much they want to be over here with us and see their granddaughter.

My prediction is that non essential flights will start up again later this year/early new year - dependent as to whether the country you are flying to will accept travellers from a ‘hot’ country - ie US, UK, China, Italy and Spain.

I had a call from the Travel Agents yesterday, to let me know the time of the return flight for our holiday has been put back an hour.
I laguhed - assuming it was some kind of joke. This is a package holiday, end of June / return date is July, but he said that was what the airlines are currently scheduling
Anything after mid June, they are currently planning as if it is going ahead.
I, personally, can't see that, but you have to love an optimist.

@BackforGood Wow, that’s surprising..! Can I ask where it’s to, out of interest?
I just can’t see it in July here, but the government has been talking about the tourist season and putting plans in place for holiday makers this summer 😳

@Parker231 I was thinking Autumn (if we’re lucky) or the start of next year. A part of me can maybe see it happening in October..depending on how things go I guess..but again, if over 70’s are supposed to be in quarantine basically until a vaccine comes, I don’t see how this would work or if it would be considered safe for my parents to travel.

As PArker231 has said all this is going to country dependent.

As an example earlier this evening the French Government announced it is extending powers introduced to combat for CV-19 out to 24th July and introducing a 14 day quarantine/confinement period for (almost) everybody entering the country..I suspect that's pretty much killed flights into/out of France for the rest of the Summer.....

@Confusedasusual78 It is to one of the Canaries.
We were due to fly out end of June.
I'm certain we won't be going, but the travel industry seems to be pretending otherwise.

The concern I have is that the government might say people have to isolate when they come back into the country (and wherever you go might) might say the same. However, because the government doesn’t say you shouldn’t travel the airlines/holiday companies won’t offer a refund and the insurance companies say it’s you own choice not to go! I really don’t want to go but unless the insurance company/airlines companies pay out we’re approximately £10k down. I know that a lot of people will say if you can pay that on one holiday you can afford to lose it. However, we really can’t but feels like it could be a lose lose situation. The Airline company are offering us the chance to rebook in the next 16 months but we don’t want to book anything just now. We’re due to travel the end of June

I thought Spain and Portugal were pushing for some trade this Summer?

There was an article about Germans wanting access to their holiday homes on the Balearics.

But they will definitely open up flights for non holiday makers over the coming months.

I think the more we know about immunity and the antibody tests will be a game changer.

As an example earlier this evening the French Government announced it is extending powers introduced to combat for CV-19 out to 24th July and introducing a 14 day quarantine/confinement period for (almost) everybody entering the country..I suspect that's pretty much killed flights into/out of France for the rest of the Summer.....

The France24 report also says: "It was not immediately clear whether the quarantine would only apply to people arriving from outside Europe's open-border Schengen area,"

Op - Whizz air have announced that they are flying to Portugal

I don't think what we regard as 'normal' for flights will ever return. Or at least, not until there's a vaccine available.

Plus, passengers are too closely packed for any form of social distancing, and reducing passenger density may well make flights uneconomic (unless the flight is mainly financed by cargo fees). Warren Buffet has just sold all his airline stock, I think it's a given more will follow - many airlines will go bust .

An equilibrium will be reached (fewer passengers/airlines, higher prices) but it will be a new 'normal' which might not bear much resemblance to the old .

It will vary! Those who fly once a year on a trip to the sun then 2921 is likely but to stay with family and for business plus winter holidays its likely to get going sooner. I'm still expecting to take a trip in September that's planned

Greece, Portugal, and others are opening up for summer. In Greece nos are very low for covid 19.

The airlines are all looking at distancing policies. If they fly and the holidays are cheap then I will go. Especially as still in the transition period. I'm sure others will also fly or go on holiday if given the opportunity.

Spain is looking for local tourists. Portugal have not made an announcement yet.
I've found flights from the U.K. to Faro in May and Wizz are flying from Luton into Lisbon.
I'm in Portugal too.

2921? Blimey, that's a bit doom and gloom

@Ponoka7
Spain and Portugal are not one country.

I’m hoping we can go to spain in the summer but who knows. We have a house there so would be able to stay a long time and therefore quarantine if we had to. The only thing is I will be with my over-75 parents so will want to make sure it’s really safe. Simon Calder reckons flying will be very safe in terms of hygiene when things start up but who knows. Could you parents come to see you and stay for a while and hence be able to quarantine there if needed?

Obviously just guessing like everyone else but I think that from around June we’ll see more flights, but still lots of restrictions to enforce social distancing at the airport and on the plane. But what will also be important is the restrictions at destination/on return. And I’m sure these will vary by country (although fingers crossed we could get an Europe wide agreement?) So for example you may be able to actually board a plane and fly, but you’d have to go into quarantine on arrival in some places. And there will be significant changes to what you can do when you get there - bars and restaurants being take away only or limited seating, museums, parks, beaches and other tourist attractions operating differently to normal. These restrictions will heavily limit holidays as they just won’t be practical or desirable (who wants to go somewhere to be confined to a hotel room either through quarantine or because there’s nothing to do?) However it will mean that higher levels of travel return - for people visiting families, for work including seasonal work, to move to work or study and so on.

However I think holidays will gradually pick up as people start to gain confidence and/or get bored of being at home so decide to go away anyway/go away but on a different type of holiday (maybe a remote villa somewhere rather than a city break?)

Alongside all of this I think those who are more vulnerable to the virus will be less likely to travel (or might not be able to get insurance to?) because of the risk of becoming unwell abroad. So possibly younger travellers and those without any underlying illness will be travelling first.

I don’t think travel will be really back to normal until (and if?) a vaccine is developed and available, and the industry has had time to recuperate. Think of all the financial difficulties the airlines and hospitality industries are having - this will impact prices and availability for a long time. So probably years until we get back to 2019 ‘normal’.

So I feel like I’ll be able to visit family in Europe this summer but might not be able to/want to take a holiday abroad until later on in the year or next year. I might take a trip within the U.K. this year if I can. And I have vague plans for long haul travel December but haven’t booked anything yet!

because the government doesn’t say you shouldn’t travel the airlines/holiday companies won’t offer a refund and the insurance companies say it’s you own choice not to go!

I think this is the point.
There was an article on the news (I think it was yesterday) where they had a correspondent in (I think it was) Benidorm.

They had local officials saying they wanted to open the hotels asap and would welcome tourists - understandable where most of the economy of a an area is based on tourism. But then a couple of minutes later they said that they wouldn't open the dining room or the bar and people would have to stay in their rooms to eat, and they couldn't come down to the swimming pool. Well obviously there'd be no point in going to sit in a hotel room, but my first thought was that the hotels will then not have to give your money back as they could technically say they were open. Ditto travel insurance. Ditto everyone who paid insurance in good faith, never getting their money back.

Quite chuffed we booked to go to Greece late summer! Greece is saying they hope to be open to tourists by July and unlike France and Spain are welcoming Brits. Obviously it still remains to be seen if it happens, but it's more hopeful that most destinations by the sounds of things. But yes, BackforGood, if it means sitting in our rooms and not being able to use the pool or bar then there is absolutely no point going.

Their flight hasn’t been cancelled yet for July, so I’m not sure..I know where I am relied heavily on tourism, so they’re been to have people, from a financial aspect.
If the flights DID still go ahead, would it be advisable given their age? 67 and 71, Mum 67 and has asthma? I know that if they can come, nothing will likely stop them! If still feel a little worried though.

*Relies

*Keen

So after only posting a couple of days ago I was today contacted by BA about our flights at the end of June to let us know that they have been cancelled. Refund is being processed.
Can now sort out the rest of the refunds either direct with places where we have booked activities or through the insurance. Whilst I am really disappointed that we’re not going away I am pleased that it has been cancelled now as it means I am not stressing any longer.