To think furlough is delaying the inevitable for millions?

[jeanjord]

We're half way through the furlough period, but it has to end eventually doesn't it. Then what? So many businesses just won't be viable and then what? Millions more lose their jobs when it ends? Then those in work have to pay higher taxes?

The intention could never have been to stop all redundancies and companies going, the recession will send many businesses under. What it will do, and that applies to how ever long it lasts, will mean that companies have had more time to plan and adjust to what their business will be.

That will mean likely mean less redundancies and ones that fall more in the businesses that were least viable before anyway, and the businesses that do survive will be more ready to recover, having not had to lay off so many of their of staff. And of course jobs where the business was completely closed, but would likely re-open without much of an impact won't have been needlessly destroyed.

Yes a recession is coming, yes lots of people will lose their jobs, but a furlough hopefully made it more gentle. It also helped I'm sure a successful lock down, as adding even more job insecurity and income loss would not have been good.

I work for a charity and the main issue is that our usual fundraising - shops, the marathon etc - has to be on pause. I don’t think our furloughed staff will all lose their jobs.

I’m happy to have the inevitable delayed if it means I don’t lose mine!

This is what I've been saying...they're just kicking the can down the road (is that the expression?!)

You know the cans are people, hmm?

To avoid or delay the problem. You know exactly what I mean!

It depends on so many variables though doesn't it? Sector/ viable business prior to lockdown/ how long lockdown lasts/ business owners intentions/ market demand and on and on.

I'm SE in an industry that has been one of the hardest hit. I have 3 staff I've furloughed and in all honesty I can't see us going back to normal anytime soon. If furlough ends I will have to reevaluate my business- either run it at a loss (not an option), scale back my operation so there's only me or shut completely. I'm devastated as it looks like I'm going to have to let my staff go.

DH on the other hand is an engineer- he's been working throughout lockdown but about 95% of his colleagues have gone on furlough. He thinks they've done enough to ensure that most of those furloughed will have jobs if lockdown ends in June.

There's a possibility that some social engineering could be thrown into the mix. Companies have discovered that they can successfully deploy a high proportion of employees working from home.
Cancelling or not renewing expensive office leases will be common practice and that has a massive knock on effect, especially on the 'commuting economy'.Think transport, coffee, take aways, lunch time shopping, pubs.
The High Street is in terminal decline. So the Internet takes it place.
Jobs will disappear in service sectors that support these industries. It is inevitable. And worrying. Manufacturing industry is moving rapidly towards AI which further reduces opportunities for the skilled and semi skilled.
We have to prepare for the worst: but hope for the best.
It's all any of us can do.

There will be a huge number of companies that won’t make it out of this. Sadly that will mean mass unemployment. It’s going to be a nightmare.

Yep. My company will not be back to where it was pre-covid for a while. Even if the economy opens up, we won’t be where we usually are. Everyone will be cautious spending money, budgets will be cut.

I agree with you in part OP, sadly a fair amount of people are going to likely lose their jobs, and yes it is delaying the inevitable for some people, but hopefully for the majority of people on furlough it will mean that they have a job to go back to. Whether they will keep them in the predicted upcoming recession/depression is however another matter.

For some yes, for others no. It’s all individual and dependant on which sector you work in.