Countries Ro values?

[lamplamplamo]

Chris Whitty seems to think ours is between 0.5-1 estimating about 0.7 ish.

Is there any information anywhere that estimates what other countries are?

So not hugely contagious? Why was there such a huge explosion here and in Italy?

I'm not contesting it. I'm interested. I'm studying public health but we haven't got to the interesting bits yet

I'm in Ireland I think it was announced during the week it was around 0.7 so similar enough to Uk

@Northernsoullover that's what it is now as a result of social distancing.

It's not hugely contagious now with the lockdown, you'd expect that. The question is what will it be when things get back to normal.

Are you doubting Chris Whittey? If anyone knows he's be my first person to trust.

It is estimated that R0 pre lockdown was somewhere around 2.5 to 3 but possibly as high as 7

Germany I think said 0.7 recently for them

It’s R, not R0.

It is R0, I looked it up to double check a couple of days ago, unless you know something that Google doesn't.

Oh yes, my mistake. Apologies.

We are declining more slowly from the peak than almost any other country. It seems like ours will be a little higher than Germany and others if that trend continues.

Possibly because our lockdown is less severe?

Are you doubting Chris Whittey? If anyone knows he's be my first person to trust.

No not at all.

Possibly because our lockdown is less severe?

I think that too. Less severe and less complied with.

The way you said “seems to think” read to me like you thought he was wrong, I'm sure he's reporting the latest research rather then his own guess.

Are you doubting Chris Whittey?

I think Chris Whittey is good but I think most of the government predictions on death rates, rollout of testing, PPE availability, peak timing etc have leaned a little optimistic.

I think they are being factual but with a positive spin.

Our infection rate seems to be remaining high though? If this because we have a relaxed lockdown?

The way you said “seems to think” read to me like you thought he was wrong, I'm sure he's reporting the latest research rather then his own guess.

No its because he said himself it was an estimate

In general terms it's R. The value at the start of an outbreak (time zero) when nobody in the population has been exposed yet is R0. Once lots of people have had it you start talking about the current value of R (it's no longer R0).

In general terms it's R. The value at the start of an outbreak (time zero) when nobody in the population has been exposed yet is R0. Once lots of people have had it you start talking about the current value of R (it's no longer R0).

R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population.

Is it? I am confused now.

I've read many many articles via Google and they all say the same thing R0 is a measure of how infectious something is and changes all the time, I haven't seen any that say R0 is some kind of starting figure, I really think that's wrong.

Before we went into lockdown R0 was (say ) 2.5, the lockdown measures have reduced it to less than 1. As far as I understand it R0 is the name/symbol for the infectiousness, it's not that R starts at 0 and changes over time.

I'm not an expert but most of the science type articles are fairly novice friendly but I will stand corrected if there's a link to one that's different to all the ones I've read.

I think what a PP is getting at is that an R0 is, technically, the reproduction rate in a population when all the population are equally prone to the infection; when there is no acquired immunity, no vaccination, and there is no way to stop the spread. Which is where we still are with Covid.
Once we start getting ways to check immunity etc, it's not an R0 any more.

Our infection rate seems to be remaining high though? If this because we have a relaxed lockdown

The current new case rate probably relates to people who were actually infected up to 2 (and maybe more) weeks ago.

My suspicion is that the majority of new infections in European countries which have been locked down for more than 3 weeks are mostly occurring in settings where social distancing is difficult, eg healthcare settings, prisons, military, immigration centres and refugee camps etc.