To think we are headed for a house price crash in London

[hibbledobble]

The prices locally have gone up exponentially in the last few years. I have no idea who can afford to buy now as a first time buyer.

Given the number of redundancies, and the knock on effect on less buyers, tenants being able to pay less, increased repossessions, aibu to think the bubble will burst very soon?

Could we see another dip like in 2009? Or even worse?

How much do you think it will go down? Or do you think demand will be enough to keep prices stable?

If a lot of properties are repossessed that could have an effect as they often sell for less - the mortgage lenders are selling to cover their loss so aren't pushing for highest price

www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2020/4/five-years-before-housing-market-recovers-from-coronavirus--claim

@MotherWol

Yes agree. But was Air bnb really that lucrative? I don’t know much about it tbh

It seems to make sense that there'll be a fall be bigger than 2009, which, let's face it, wasn't very big or very [at all] lasting.

But exactly how big or how long lasting it'll be this time around, who knows.

There’s about to be a massive global depression. Has there ever even been a small recession where house prices have remained static? Prices will go down because the economy is going to be a wreck.

It depends how many people HAVE to sell.

-How many people lose jobs and can’t get new ones or survive on a partner’s wage
-How many people can’t afford to keep paying mortgages on empty holiday lets etc

People don’t sell for less unless they have no other option. And even then, the only houses that sell cheap are those belonging to the forced sellers. Everyone else just sits tight and the market stagnates.

The problem is that In some areas prices have gone up so much that even a substantial dip won’t make them affordable. Our property has doubled in the last 5 years so even a 25% reduction wouldn’t make the area affordable.

I agree @Ezira and compared to the past this was the case however the difference here is that many people entered the btl market in the late 90s-2000s who compared to previous landlords, were in precarious jobs, self certified and bought many mortgages in a kind of pyramid scheme where tenants were paying all the mortgage off and the landlords had little equity as a cushion. These, I think will not benefit from government initiatives in the way home owners who are working and raising a family in their only home, will.

No government wants a repeat of the 80s and a generation of children in private, unsuitable digs so they will protect them and the weight will fall on btl.

The April changes plus the uncertainty of everything post corona plus Brexit plus the publicity the UK has had over the NHS, policy, resources, the Imperial College report will all compound to make people less inclined to tolerate anything halfhearted - like a mouse ridden shared house at expensive rates.

It will be the accumulative effect, I think of all these factors plus what the banks will need to do offset the cost of all this against the risks they need to rake to get/keep the international markets going. If I was them, I would be giving solid mortgages to people who are working here and paying tax here - for the morale it will create as much as anything.

The number of MASSIVE houses (8/10 bedrooms) divided into small flats but sold as one unit that came on the market in London since February has shot up. That’s clearly due to changes to the relevant legislation.
However I also wonder how many people will have to sell their second/third home to protect the other assets they have. As I said, many who have lots risk to lose a lot more than 20%.

It is probably also to do with the fact that landlords are accepting universal credit now as people are reliant on benefits during vivid whereas before there was a stigma plus some insurances I think wouldn’t allow it.

Vivid? Covid

It is about time that the dreadful house prices in London came down. But I remember the last time (in the Eighties) when house prices crashed nationally. There were many people in Negative Equity-including people who posted their house keys through the letter-boxes of Mortgage Suppliers, and ran away in despair.
There will be winners, but many losers.