These figures where shared with me as the causal calculations of a scientist (aquiantence) based on current understanding of CV and home made face masks. They where also verified by currently well known researchers who are working on CV prevention strategies, not going to past the entire thing as it's a lot of calculations and figures
This calculation is of course a home made face mask and the assumption that 1/9th of all infections can be prevented is a guess
However, no face masks 1/2 year to go from 5,000 to 100
With face mask 3 months.
So if we dont wear face masks but have effective social distancing strategies and PPE for HCP it would take roughly 6 months (from the 17th of april) of continuous social lockdown to get to 100 new cases per day. If the public started to use homemade fabric face masks it would take approximately 3 months (from 17th april) to get to 100 new cases daily in full lockdown, but may allow some loosening of restrictions at that point.
This trend is reflected in the data from countries which have put in compulsory measures not allowing the public to leave there homes without some form of face covering (homemade facemasks, scarfs, buffs).
(Only 18 infection cycles: 5000(.8^18)=90.7= about 100)*
I'm really not sure how much more obvious the data can be, specially when its come from leading researchers and scientists in Covid prevention and management and are often retired HCP or well known in their research communities and very well respected for their work. All there work which I've included some of above (both academic papers and work which has been produced as general public friendly websites/infographs) has all been peer reviewed and debated (eg other leading researchers have looked at it and considered whether its logical/likely and makes sense and is possible, and even have potentially run the experiments themselves to confirm findings or have run the analysis and equations themselves to confirm they get the same results).