Coronavirus

[outofthemoon]

Am I being unreasonable to ask if the government has panicked re Coronavirus? The Nightingale hospitals are empty. I know no one who knows anyone who has had it. The figures are so fluid, with so many unknowns, they are virtually meaningless. I don't even understand the emphasis on testing, since a negative can be a positive 12 hours later. I think lockdown has sent me nuts.

@outofthemoon 111 and her GP
She is really struggling

@outofthemoon you do realise that 80% of those who get it are asymptomatic? So it's perfectly possible that you did get it. Only about 0.5 to 1% of those who get it will die. That is still a LOT more than would die of, e.g. flu, which is why we are seeing such high death rates at the moment. But even for those in vulnerable groups, it's more likely that you'll get it and be fine, than get it and be seriously ill.

I don't know of anyone with a +ve diagnosis. It's difficult to achieve a +ve diagnosis when you're not testing for it.

The government really are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

I know the ages of the people in our intensive care unit. It’s frightening.

So yes, most people will be ok if they catch it (providing you’re not in a vulnerable group) but some won’t. You don’t know until you catch it whether or not you’ll be one of the ones who is randomly badly affected, despite being otherwise healthy.

I’d rather be over prepared any day than under and end up with thousands more avoidable deaths!

It is a balance though @outofthemoon

This is not a sprint. People who have to travel will gradually go back to work. The economy is still working. The alternative of 'letting this fire burn' would destroy many economies and the northern hemisphere will suffer more next winter if the southern hemisphere allows coronavirus to run rampant. That is a very real prospect.

You are too dramatic and I cannot take your posts seriously if you use phrases like "sitting in the garden with bags over our heads".

bridgetreilly
That 80% figure is no longer believed to be creditable. It came out at Boris's herd-immunity-3.5million-game-changing-antibody-tests time. Wishful thinking.

Chimpd0g your friend sounds like she is being badly sidelined.

I think that’s a bit of an ‘I’m alright Jack’ attitude OP. The Government wouldn’t be spending billions on something which isn’t needed. My DSis, 41, who is a nurse (not on the COVID ward) tested positive last week and ended up in hospital, she’s super fit and it’s hit her very badly. Well over 13k people in the UK have died in a relatively short space of time. Just because you haven’t been affected doesn’t mean it’s not real!

I'm trying to be undramatic Avalanchekit
I think we have been frightened into a sort of Princess-Diana-death style mass emotional overload.

I also think we should be pouring resources into stopping what you describe in the developing countries where self isolation, washing your hands even, is not possible. That's where we should be building field hospitals, just as much as here.The treatment of the poor in India is absolutely appalling. And the refugee camps. I think we are so busy naval gazing and stock piling pasta that we haven't a clue.

@outofthemoon you do realise that 80% of those who get it are asymptomatic

I may be wrong but I don't think they know yet what percentage get it without symptoms, Vallance said recently that it could be as high as 30% in current estimates. This is one reason why the antibody test, if it can be made accurate enough, would be so helpful.

However many people do get it with no or mild symptoms, so you or your friends may have had it OP. Although it is not as contagious as some viruses, and doesn't have as high a mortality rate as some viruses....the key is in the combination of the two factors when they meet a population with no immunity. That means that some illnesses more contagious or with a higher mortality rate don't realistically have the potential to cause as much illness and death as covid. Add in no immunity and exponential growth, knock on effects of nhs being overwhelmed and economy collapsing as so many fall ill or refuse to go out....no, I don't think they overreacted!

amymel2016 I'm not saying, 'I'm alright, Jack' so it isn't true.

I'm saying those of us who can be at work (like my family) should be encouraged to do so, not told they are not protecting the NHS etc. Because longterm that is the only way we can fund the protection of those who cannot. Complete lockdown is unsustainable.

We don’t know what’s going to happen when lockdown is lifted.

Are we going to have a second wave/spike?
If yes then how is that wave/spike going to behave?

I’d rather have those hospitals there and underused than not have them but need them and the NHS drown under the strain.

Let the scientists and experts do their job OP and calm down. We will all be going back to work gradually and working together to save lives and the economy. Listen to the expert advice.

Literally no one is suggesting that complete lockdwon is sustainable.

I live in a rural county with lots of small market towns and small villages and hamlets. There has been 1 death in my NHS TRust hospital.

I don’t know a single person who has had it in this county. I know 4 people personally who have had it who live in London or Bristol. We are so untouched by it it feels like one long holiday.

I don’t want it to come here and I don’t want anyone to get ill, that should go without saying. What I do want is for relatively untouched areas to come out of lockdowns geographically and travel permits to be issued for out of county travel. I think the areas which are relatively unaffected should be trying to return to normality.

People's perception is going to be very different depending on where they and their family and friends live, you only need to look at the daily graphs to see that.

Personally I don't know anyone either who has had a confirmed case, one very vague acquaintance who had classic symptoms and one friend of a friend of a friend who has died.

But people in London and Birmingham will have very different views, I don't have an issue with field hospitals with few patients, better than overcrowded covid wards in existing hospitals.

Someone said at the start of this something along the lines of the success of over-reacting is that everyone thinks you over-reacted

Atalune that is a such a good idea.

Coconuttelegraph If a field hospital in Lincolnshire was virtually empty it would be understandable. But in eg. London at what we were told was the height of the peak, it seems like panic.

I live in quite a rural area. I know four households that most likely have had it in my area. Two are my neighbours who think they caught it from the local pub, (this is Cotswolds area and they think they caught it on last night of Cheltenham Gold Cup). Not confirmed cases as they didn't require hospital admission but all the classic symptoms - temperature, cough, tired, loss of smell and taste. NHS 111 told them it was C-19. They are in their 50s and 60s. All have recovered at home.

The cost of a field hospital is miniscule in the context of the cost of supporting the crisis, personally I think it's money well spent and wholly justifiable in the circumstances.

Would it have been better to do nothing to increase the bed capacity?

Whilst I am in totally in agreement with your value point Coconut the cost principle is a red herring. What is cost to A is income to B, which is recycled round the economy.

If the Nightingale hospitals are never needed then good. The alternative isn't worth thinking about. The government had to plan with very little time and act very quickly. They may have built unnecessary hospitals, and purchased too many ventilators. I actually hope they have.

I don't understand what you mean avalanche

Government spending during poor economic times is a positive is it not? I hadn't considered that but surely an additional benefit.

Yes, that's my point. 'Cost' is inappropriate.

The Nightingales may be empty now, but we haven't peaked. At our worst, so far, nearly a 1000 people were dying a day. And that's just the ones that have been reported. I believe when we do reach the peak in a few weeks time, they will be busier.
You have no idea how many people you know have had it or not due to lack of testing. Some only get really mild symptoms, some are asymptomatic. I believe I've had it and my mum thinks she has had it too. I recovered quite quickly but my mum had to call for an ambulance at one point. Neither of us required hospital treatment, so won't be tested.
6 people in the village I live in have died because of CV, so I'm less inclined to think there's been an unnecessary panic.
Testing is needed to ensure people can start going back to work. I suspect a lot of people have had to isolate unnecessarily because they had a symptom, when it was actually just a cold or something.