House prices

[Newbie1999]

Realistically, how much do you think house prices will fall over the next couple of years?

I don't agree that everyone would sell and no one would buy if they thought house prices would fall substantially. Who wants the cost and insecurity of rented housing if they have a choice?

People who can buy a house they love and want to live, and that they can comfortably afford why wouldn't they? If you are hoping to make a fast buck by buying a house and selling it two years later for twice the price then no chance but that's no bad thing!

If you buy a house and pay your mortgage, 25 years later (or 30, or 35!) whatever happens with the ups and downs of the housing market, it all be worth one house. Take a long term view and you will be fine.

Winter2020 that's great if you have job security but many won't, which is why you could see a decrease in those buying. Simple supply and demand really. For every one buyer there could be 5 sellers.

We haven't seen 'Brexit' yet.

If you buy a house and pay your mortgage, 25 years later (or 30, or 35!) whatever happens with the ups and downs of the housing market, it all be worth one house. Take a long term view and you will be fine

No one I know has lived in the same house for 30 years. Most seem to naturally buy bigger and better houses as years go on, families grow and space is needed etc.

We’ve gone from a shit house in a shit area to a shit house in a lovely area to a lovely house in a lovely area in the past 16 years. Most people I know have also ‘levelled’ up at least once in the same time.

I don’t think too many FTB’s go straight in to their ‘forever’ house - and I don’t think you’d find many FTB’s who’d be unbothered by the thought of their £150k house being worth £100k in 3 years (or whatever the affect is).

Most people I know who are now in their 50’s and 60’s have lived in their houses for 25/30 years plus.

Most people I know who are now in their 50’s and 60’s have lived in their houses for 25/30 years plus

But that’s completely different to the next generation. 30 years ago you could go straight into buying your 3/4 bed ‘forever’ house if you had a half decent job.

Not so for many now because houses are (relatively) so much more expensive.

Most people I know buying their first home in their 20’s are buying 2 bed ‘starter’ homes but have no intention of staying in them for 30 years.

30 years ago you could go straight into buying your 3/4 bed ‘forever’ house if you had a half decent job

What do you mean?

Most people started out in tiny studios or 1 bed flats and worked up.

The only thing I can think of that is different today is people want the 3/4 bed house as a ftb then whinge that they can’t afford it.

It was easier and quicker to move up the ladder 30 years ago. People got on the ladder far younger.

People might want a 3/4 bedroom house because they are late 20s early 30s and want to start a family.

As a renter desperate to buy. The problem is (as we found in 2008) mortgages are hard to get as banks don’t want to lend as prices drop. This then pushes them further.

The worst thing the government did last time was bail out the house market last time. It needed to drop not continue climbing on a false glass floor.

It will be bloody awful if house prices drop hugely, as much as I want to be able to buy, it will be awful.

@Evilpea.

I agree, it’s really a weigh up between buying before they hit too low to ensure the Higher LTV and catching it on an upward curve after its hit the floor.

That is not true in my experience Cerise my generation (x) bought a starter home and moved up the ladder, for me, initially a 2 bed end terrace, then a 3 bed detached and now a large 5 bed detached, I think it is more these days younger generations expect to start off in the detached family home and not starter homes.

30 years ago you could go straight into buying your 3/4 bed ‘forever’ house if you had a half decent job
^
What do you mean?
^

House prices were more in line with wages 30 years ago. 27 years ago my then dh and I had a joint income of £20,000 a year and the 3 bed semi we bought as first time buyers was £45,000.

Knight Frank have a vested interest in saying everything is okay! Are there any more sources that are more impartial??

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8212455/Housing-market-expected-fall-sixth-thousands-Britons-lose-jobs.html

An average drop of 13% in 2020 according to CEBR.

The only thing I can think of that is different today is people want the 3/4 bed house as a ftb then whinge that they can’t afford it.

That is such utter nonsense. I appreciate some on this thread have a vested interest but can we not spout rubbish.

The av age of a FTB is now 33 so it stands to reason that they may want an extra bedroom to allow for a child. Even many 2nd steppers are stuck on the ladder & can't move up to a 3 bedroom house.

“30 years ago you could go straight into buying your 3/4 bed ‘forever’ house if you had a half decent job”.

I disagree with this also. We had a flat, and then to get a house, moved to a cheaper area. Most of my friends were similar. There’s only two people I know who have lived in the same house since marriage. One married an older person who was still living at home so had a lot of money saved, and the other worked for the bank, so got more preferable rates.

Banks are currently not offering higher LTVs because these require in person valuations and those are not possible during lockdown and social distancing. Higher LTV purchases with the offer already in place are still going ahead (anecdotally amongst my friends and several property forums I'm on).

*People who can buy a house they love and want to live, and that they can comfortably afford why wouldn't they? If you are hoping to make a fast buck by buying a house and selling it two years later for twice the price then no chance but that's no bad thing!

If you buy a house and pay your mortgage, 25 years later (or 30, or 35!) whatever happens with the ups and downs of the housing market, it all be worth one house. Take a long term view and you will be fine.*

Except of course, those same people will know that if they wait 6 months, they'll be able to buy the same house for thousands less, giving them all the benefits of the house and all the safety of a load of extra cash.

That's why deflation in anything is so detrimental.

The road in London I was raised on was/is a nice road & had teachers, doctors, police etc living on it, a lot of the homes only had one parent working as most had young dc. Those houses now cost 1.8m plus (35 yrs later), completely out of reach of normal workers these days.

A 10-15% drop is generally manageable by most people who have been lender their mortgages responsibly due to the requirement of putting down a 10% deposit

The reintroduction of 5% deposits was never sensible

I also wonder how the government will manage the part one part buy crowd who will suddenly be more trapped in their never ending cycle of borrowing than they ever were before

@rebelwithallthecause ??? Where are you getting Daily Mail nonsense from?

I was reading this thread and responded to the post before asking for more impartial sources so I Google Newsed and found that link.

CEBR are a reputable economic consultancy and plenty of papers are reporting this figure from them today.

Unemployment has doubled according to reports. Despite furlough.
13% may be optimistic!

The link takes you to a daily mail news article

Personally I think a big issue will be not just the current impact but mindsets. Will people spend as before? What will they spend it on? Do people want more savings? Will remote working increase & therefore location is less important?