Is easing lockdown too soon a bad idea?

[Iateallthecookies000]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-scientists-warn-easing-lockdown-could-lead-to-resurgent-second-wave-11970945

Ramadan is on the 23rd..how will that be managed?

Restrictions can only be relaxed once one of three things is the case. Either a significant portion of the population has had Covid-19 and is now immune, or an effective treatment or vaccine is available, or the virus is exterminated from the British population.

But that isn't why we are in lock down. It is supposed to slow the spread to help the NHS to cope, not stop the spread altogether. No government can promise that. At some point soon we will have to come out, we won't be able to afford staying in lock down until a vaccine is available- as a nation we would be utterly bankrupt .

Article in the press this morning was suggesting that they will reopen schools part time early in may with staggered attendance to help social distancing and then start to end furlough for youngest workers, gradually increasing.

Also said they expect to need a second lockdown later in the year to deal with a second peak though.

Why would Ramadan pose an issue? Less supermarket queuing I expect.

Kastanien that's true, but it is still spreading with the lockdown. As you say the lockdown is to slow the stream of new cases to a manageable level. If we came out of lockdown now the rate would shoot up again.

But we can slightly relax lockdown. Get some back at work without letting people back into pubs, parks and restaurants for example.

Also each week that passes means more people have had it and are now immune. Your GP, postman and immediate neighbours might already be immune.

I thought you could get it more than once ?

@Iateallthecookies000 China had an 11 week lockdown. We are probably going to end up similar

I think you’ve asked and answered your own question in your post. In order for it to be too soon, it’ll obviously be a bad idea.
I’ve seen a lot of posts here saying things will be back to normal in a few weeks. Until government said otherwise people were thinking children might be back after Easter holidays! Some think they’ll be back this academic year still. Some unfortunately can’t or don’t want too comprehend the situation and think it’s the same as flu. The government have said they’ll listen to science so hopefully lockdown won’t end too soon, as seemingly many mumsnetters would hope!

Until a vaccine is generally available we will just have to live with it, just as we live with seasonal 'flu, specially in the years when the vaccine isn't very helpful. Numbers aren't kept but it's thought that about 15,000 - 17,000 excess deaths per year are caused by 'normal' 'flu.

The mortality rate for coronavirus can’t be firmly determined until this is all over, but the absolute best rate I have seen so far is 0.6% giving it a mortality rate six times higher than flu. Flu also has a vaccine. So living with it is not directly comparable to living with seasonal flu in our population.

This article by a Chair of Global Health at Edinburgh Uni lists four possible ways we will climb out of this. No easy solutions

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/08/how-will-the-coronavirus-crisis-end-lockdown-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Chimny - but whatever is your solution? The government cannot afford lockdown beyond a few weeks. The cost of the measures is much more than expected as the furloughing makes people think there is no cost to the lockdown. Instead, the impact is catastrophic. If it continues, millions will lose their jobs later this year and the young will be hit worst of all.

There is now enough hospital capacity, the NHS is not overloaded like is Italy. I expect lockdown will end by May and we need to get used to the idea that the virus is here to stay, there will not be a vaccine and we have to learn to with it. Some people will sadly die and we cannot prevent all deaths, in the same way we don’t ban cars to prevent road traffic accidents. Almost 2,000 people die every day in the UK of all causes, and the government scientists believe that two-third of those who die with coronavirus would have died this year anyway - coronavirus was what finished them off. It is obviously very sad that people’s lives are shortened but this is not the black death.

The scientists are divided on this but the government scientists are planning how to end it soon because there are disastrous consequences to the current lockdown, including people not getting cancer treatment, not getting other medical treatment, losing their livelihoods with negative health consequences. The government scientists are focused also on the negative consequences which increase the longer lockdown is.

Almost 2,000 people die every day in the UK of all causes, and the government scientists believe that two-third of those who die with coronavirus would have died this year anyway - coronavirus was what finished them off.

There is a balancing act to be sure and I don’t have the answers, but someone pointed out that there is a difference between coronavirus deaths and many other deaths. Those with CV have to die alone and without family being able to be beside them.

Also in response to the argument many would possibly be dying anyway in the next year someone gave the analogy of what would the response be if terrorists attacked an old people’s home, would we say well they were old and going to die soon enough?